Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Arnold Palmer Invitational

Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.

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The Florida swing continues this week with a trip to Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. A loaded field of 121 players is led by World #1 Rory McIlroy and consists of four other players(Koepka, Scott, Reed, Fleetwood) inside the Top 10 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Bay Hill became the host course for this event back in 1979 and has been a staple on Tour ever since. It is a par 72 setup that has a posted distance of 7,454 yards on the scorecard and has ranked Top 15 in difficulty over the last three years(8th, 15th, 9th). The difficulty comes from the number of long iron shots players are forced to hit and it starts with the Par 3's as they are all over 190 yards with three of them 215 yards or longer. The trend continues on the Par 4's as five of the 10 are longer than 450 yards. Looking at the approach shot distribution(pictured below via FNGC), almost 32% of all approaches come from the 200+ yard range. Long irons are the key this week with Strokes: Gained Approach sitting #1 in my model with emphasis on Proximity from the 200+ yard range.

Despite the overall difficulty ranking I mentioned above, we have seen the winning score reach double digits in eight straight year and almost reach -20 on a few occasions(Rory McIlroy -18 in 2018, Jason Day -17 in 2016, Matt Every -19 in 2015). This keeps Birdie or Better % fairly high in the model, especially considering the correlation to fantasy scoring, but I will have some Bogey Avoidance in there as well. With all that, let's jump in and take a look at some core plays at each price point.

The Course

Bay Hill Club & Lodge - Orlando, FL
Par 72 - 7,454 yards
Greens - Bermuda

**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

Previous Five Winners

• 2019 - Francesco Molinari(-12)
• 2018 - Rory McIlroy(-18)
• 2017 - Marc Leishman(-11)
• 2016 - Jason Day(-17)
• 2015 - Matt Every(-19)

Top Stats in the Model

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Proximity from 200+ yards
• Par 4 Scoring w/ emphasis on 450+ yard range
• Birdie or Better %
• Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda(via FNGC)

When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.

Top Tier Targets

Rory McIlroy
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (5/1)
Draftkings ($11,800)
FanDuel ($12,200)

No surprise who is #1 in my(and likely everyone's) model this week. Rory checks every single box and it starts with his course history as he returns to Bay Hill with finishes of T6, Win, and T4 in his last three trips and is 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total here over the last 50 rounds. Then we turn to his form and it gets even better as he has now made five appearances on the PGA Tour this season, finishing Top 5 in all of them with a win at the WGC HSBC Champions. Look at the stats coming into this week, Rory ranks(in this field) 10th in SG: Ball Striking(14th OTT, 7th APP), 9th in Par scoring overall and from 450+ yards, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie or Better Gained, and 3rd in Bogey Avoidance. While it will be tough to fit him in cash games, he is priority #1 for me in GPP's this week in my stars and scrubs builds.

Xander Schauffele
World Golf Ranking (#12)
Vegas Odds (22/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
FanDuel ($11,500)

I am absolutely loving the top tier this week so choosing just two to write about has been difficult. While it is his first trip to Bay Hill, I am going with Schauffele who is one of the best ball strikers in the field ranking Top 10 in every sample size(last 4, 8, 12, 24, 50, 100 rounds). Since missing the cut at the Farmers where he struggled with the approach shot, he has reeled off three straight Top 25 finishes and gained a whopping 10.2 strokes on approach in his most recent event, the WGC Mexico. The thing holding him back from another win is the putter(lost strokes in 3 straight & 4 of last 5 events) so if we can get a week where he gains strokes on the field, I feel he can crush his price. I will have exposure in all formats.

Mid Tier Targets

Abraham Ancer
World Golf Ranking (#29)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,800)
FanDuel ($9,700)

Ancer missed the cut here last year but I am not worried at all as he comes into this week with much better form. After missing the cut in back to back events(Safeway Open, Shriners Open) to start the season, he has not only posted eight straight cuts made but has four Top 15's in that time including a T12 at the Mexico Championship where he gained 4.9 strokes ball striking. Looking at the stats model on the sheet, he comes in 10th ranking 22nd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 21st in Proximity from 200+ yards, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, and 5th in Bogey Avoidance. At these prices, Ancer is a core play in all formats and I will also be betting him outright.

Marc Leishman
World Golf Ranking (#21)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($8,600)
FanDuel ($10,400)

Leishman is one of my favorite PTS/$ plays as he checks every box this week and it starts with the course history as he has tallied four straight Top 25's here at Bay Hill including a win in 2017. After winning the Farmers Insurance Open back at the end of January, he fell off a bit with a T43 and T42 at the Genesis and WGC Mexico but does rank(in this field) 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach this season after gained in that area in five straight(22.3 total). The issue most recently has been the putter but when it is dialed in he has winning upside and is not only a core DFS play but like Ancer, will be on my outright bet card this week.

Value Targets

Maverick McNealy
World Golf Ranking (#231)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($8,800)

McNealy is a player who I feel is underpriced in relation to how consistent he has been in his rookie season on the PGA Tour. It didn't start off well as he missed his first two cuts at the Greenbrier and Sanderson Farms Championship but has since tallied 11 straight made cuts including four straight Top 30 finishes with three Top 15's in there as well. On the surface, the 81st rank(in this field) in SG: Approach is a concern but digging deeper he is 2nd in this field in Proximity from 200+ yards so I am not overly concerned. It also helps he leads the field in Bogey Avoidance and is also Top 25 in Par 4 scoring(21st from 450-500 yard range). Core play for me in all formats.

Patrick Rodgers
World Golf Ranking (#256)
Vegas Odds (140/1)
Draftkings ($6,600)
FanDuel ($8,100)

Stars and scrubs is a real possibility in cash games this week thanks to plays like Rodgers. He has made the cut here at the API in three of four events with two Top 20's and comes in with good form having made the cut in seven of his last eight events and 12 out of 16 on the season(75%). Statistically, it isn't pretty unless we look at putting on Bermuda greens in which he is 12th in this field over the last 24 rounds. All in all, he is in play in all formats for me this week and I love betting him Top 20 finish as well at +550.

 

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