Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 3/4/20
This time of the year is crazy. There are so many injuries and a stupid amount of questionable decisions made by coaches. That causes mayhem in terms of DFS and we'll try our best to sort it out for you here. With that in mind, let's get into our favorite plays of the day!
Head on over a for your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NBA FanDuel and DraftKings optimizer, our NFL Optimizer and NHL Projections as well. Plus our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
First time with NBA or NFL? Be sure to read our free NBA and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.
Luka Doncic FD - $10400 DK - $10900
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 58.92 DK - 63.41
With some significant injury news around other teams on this slate, there's potentially going to be a lot of cheap value at other positions. And that lines up real well with being able to pay up for Luka Doncic on this slate. He gets a dream matchup against the Pelicans who run a super-fast pace and aren't all that adept on defense as evidenced by the 139 points the Timberwolves put up just last night. Luka's price is down some in the short term with the ankle injury causing him to miss a game and some lower fantasy outputs over the last week or so. But that's fine, it just makes him a pretty easy buy and the big money play to lock into cash games on both sites.
Morant has established himself as the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year and he'll be going full force from here on out with Zion Williamson right on his tail. That's not the only motivation for Morant, as he's also trying to hold on to that eight-seed in the west too. That should lead to big usage and even bigger minutes which has already been on the rise because of the injuries to Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. That's evident when you see that Ja is averaging 38 DraftKings points per game over his last four fixtures. Not to mention, Brooklyn owns a 26th OPRK against opposing point guards according to DK.
Sexton has quietly had a great season for the Cavs and it's hard to understand why he remains so affordable on both sites. We're talking about a guy who's scored at least 25 DK points on 30 of his last 32 games while averaging 32.2 fantasy points per game in that span. That's an absurd floor from a guy in the $6,000-range and his value should only rise with Andre Drummond and Darius Garland expected to miss this game. While the matchup against Boston is tough, they could be without Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward.
Jimmy Butler FD - $7500 DK - $7800
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 41.6 DK - 40.92
Butler is way too good of a player to be sitting below $8,000. This is a dude who was $8,500 at the beginning of the month and he earned every bit of that with his 42.3 DK points per game. His floor has been incredible too, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in 30 of his last 32 games in total. That's no surprise when you see his stat-stuffing ability and it looks even better when you consider that Butler is averaging 22 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.7 steals in three games against Orlando this season.
Caris Levert FD - $6000 DK - $7200
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 36.7 DK - 37.65
Um, LeVert just went nuts on Tuesday night against the Celtics and it's clear that he's taken over in the absence of Kyrie Irving. Since the superstar point guard went down, LeVert is leading the team with a 30 percent usage rate. That has led to him scoring at least 25 DK points in 11 of the 12 games since Irving's most recent injury while averaging 40 fantasy points per game in that span. That makes this FanDuel price completely laughable and it could mean that he's about 50 percent owned over there. You can swallow that chalk against a 27th-ranked Grizzlies defense though.
Dillon Brooks (FD $5100 DK $5400) has been averaging 23 shots per game over his last four fixtures with so many Memphis players getting injured.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11600 DK - $11400
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 61.8 DK - 64.55
Giannis is always a good choice. The MVP frontrunner is currently averaging 60 DK points per game for the season, despite playing fewer than 31 minutes per outing. That's the best rate in the NBA and it seems possible that he'll see an increase in playing time here against an Eastern Conference foe. In his first two games against the Pacers, Giannis is averaging 22 points, 16 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks in just 29 minutes per game. Could you imagine what that line would look like in 35 minutes of play? That doesn't even take into consideration that he has at least 67 fantasy points in eight of his last 12 games.
Jaylen Brown FD - $6400 DK - $8100
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 35.89 DK - 36.68
With Kemba Walker likely sitting in the second half of a back-to-back set and Gordon Hayward getting injured in that loss on Tuesday, Brown could be in for a monster role with Jayson Tatum also nicked up. That's a lot of usage and shots out of the lineup, with JB posting a 32 percent usage rate with all three of them off the floor. The best part about using him today might be the matchup though, with Cleveland sitting 29th in defensive efficiency. If all three of those guys are out, Brown is the best per-dollar play on the board on FanDuel. Update: Jaylen Brown is now doubtful. The Celtics will be very shorthanded in this game.
Zion Williamson FD - $7700 DK - $8000
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 40.83 DK - 41.8
It's scary just how big and athletic this kid is. The thing that really amazes me is his floor, scoring at least 26 DraftKings points in all 16 games he's played this year, despite averaging fewer than 29 minutes per outing. He's actually been even better recently, averaging over 40 DK points per game across his last eight outings. While we are a bit concerned about Zion in the second half of a back-to-back set, the Pelicans have confirmed he's ready to play in those. We're also not worried about an undersized Dallas team who sits 18th in defensive efficiency.
Kevin Love FD - $6600 DK - $7700
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 42.04 DK - 45.88
Larry Nance Jr. FD - $5400 DK - $6500
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 36.54 DK - 38.07
If Andre Drummond and Darius Garland are out, both of these guys are fantastic plays. Let's kick things off with Love because he's a good play no matter who suits up. This is a former All-Star who's averaging 36.6 DK points per game for the season and has scored at least 35 fantasy points in seven of his last 11 games in total. That's way too good for someone priced this cheaply and he should have no problem against guys like Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter. Larry Nance Jr is fantastic when given the opportunity too, averaging 35 DK points per game across 35 minutes of action in his nine starts this season.
Hassan Whiteside FD - $9500 DK - $9500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 49.55 DK - 48.97
Whiteside has established himself as one of the best centers in fantasy this season and it's scary just how good he's been since the opening month. Over his last 15 games played, Whiteside is averaging 47 DraftKings points per game. That's actually not far off of his season average and that sort of production is frightening for a Wizards team who ranks dead-last in both defensive efficiency and points allowed. In their one matchup earlier this season, Whiteside accumulated 23 points, 21 rebounds and five blocks, if you need any more incentive.
Jonas Valanciunas FD - $7100 DK - $7800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 40.96 DK - 42.57
With JJJ and Clarke both injured in Memphis' frontcourt, Valanciunas has become their most valuable weapon. Where that's really evident is in his usage, averaging 29.3 minutes played over his last four games. Playing time is the most important thing for a guy like this, with JV averaging 43.6 DK points per game in that span, and 34.2 fantasy points across 25.6 minutes played for the season. The icing on the cake is the matchup though, with Brooklyn surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Rudy Gobert (FD $7600 DK $8000) is always a threat to double-double and should roll right through a 24th-ranked Knicks defense.
GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!