Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday, 3/12/20
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It's an under-card marquee game on this slate, with Memphis clinging to the 8th seed in the West and the Trail Blazers being one of the two teams that's 3.5 games back of them. Memphis has eased Morant into a slightly longer rotation recently, and he's been supplying a steady diet of 5x+ points per dollar performances over the last couple of weeks. He's coming off a game against Orlando where he played a career high 35:20, and it's a welcome sign that he did well against an Orlando team that's been a brutal DFS match-up based on their slow pace. Portland represents a solid spot here, and I'm happy to deploy Morant in any format.
Coby White FD - $6200 DK - $6900
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 34.65 DK - 36.49
White forced the Bulls hand after putting up huge night after huge night off the bench, and now that he's starting, it sure looks like he's just under-priced relative to his current opportunity. He's playing 37 minute rotations in close games, and really hasn't given up a whole lot of usage in spite of playing alongside the starters more often. Recent returns have him looking like a $7k player (closer to his DraftKings price, actually), so getting this discount on FanDuel more than makes up for the slow match-up with the Magic.
Keep an eye on the crazy Bucks. If Giannis misses Eric Bledsoe should be the highest owned PG, assuming he plays.
Caris Levert FD - $7100 DK - $7500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 41.56 DK - 42.55
While there is some outstanding injury news surrounding this game, the one thing that looks pretty safe right now in Nets land is Caris Levert. Levert has been totally unleashed at this point, leading the team in both minutes and usage, and leading the under-manned Nets to some impressive wins in the process. If he's really going to be a 35-38 minute a game guy that is also the primary ball handler for his team, you'll see more price growth here. Throw in the best match-up on the slate in Golden State and you're cooking with gas.
Damion Lee FD - $5100 DK - $5500
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 27.95 DK - 28.52
With Golden State getting healthier the common consensus is that Lee would start to get phased out of the offense, except in reality that hasn't happened at all. In the one game where Lee played alongside both Curry and Wiggins he still managed 17 shots and 34 fantasy points. Brooklyn winds up being a slightly above average match-up thanks to their above average pace, but Lee is just a good deal especially with the extra minutes from Juan Tocaso-Anderson being ruled out.
Also considered: James Harden, but he had a pretty bad game the last time the Lakers and Rockets squared off.
LeBron James FD - $10800 DK - $10600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 52.88 DK - 56.21
You'll get to pay up somewhere today, and most of those options come from the same game. Our system is actually a little lukewarm on LeBron in an absolute sense, but given the lack of depth at small forward it's still looking like he could show up for us. The Rockets are in a precarious spot in terms of defending the Lakers because of LA's sheer size. They can't hide guys on Davis and McGee/Howard and still have any size left over for LeBron, and given the King's incredible run recently I'm pumped to get him in there at sub $11,000 prices.
Gordon Hayward FD - $6600 DK - $7100
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 36.11 DK - 37.09
Have you seen what Hayward has been up to recently? Walker is technically back, but the eyeball test suggests that it might be Hayward's show in the near term. He's lived up to the part in his last two games, averaging 49 fantasy points on 19 shots in two very tough match-ups with Oklahoma City and Indiana. The tough match-up stream won't stop against the Bucks, of course, but the best Bucks defenders should have their attentions turned elsewhere here. We have plenty of safety built into these prices, and I think we can weather the difficult spot here.
Anthony Davis FD - $10200 DK - $9800
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 59.02 DK - 58.96
If you thought our system was bullish on James' ability to run wild on the undersized Rockets, wait til you see what it thinks Davis is capable of. While there is a discussion about whether you should run Harden or LeBron here, there is really no question that Davis is by far the best pay-up option on the slate. Davis' price is reduced after a very tough run of match-ups with PHI, MIL, and LAC, and I think he gets back on the horse in a big way against the Rockets here.
Aaron Gordon FD - $7000 DK - $7400
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.18 DK - 36.69
Gordon lost some playing time against Memphis due to foul trouble, but prior to that he was getting 35-37 minutes of run on lock, and paying 5x-7x on these prices with regularity. The Bulls are one of those teams that you really need to break down on a more granular level, as their league average pace and defensive efficiency don't fully tell the story about how poorly they've fared against opposing bigs this season. Look for the Magic to feed Gordon early and often en route to a solid cash game performance.
Also considered: Daniel Theis.
Jonas Valanciunas FD - $7500 DK - $8100
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 45.45 DK - 47.02
Valanciunas has looked downright unstoppable recently, clearing 15+ rebounds in six of his last seven games. The DraftKings price has caught up to his production somewhat, but we're still getting a value on these FanDuel prices. The biggest question mark for JV has always been the irregular minutes, and it looks for now as though he should be around for 32-35 minutes a game when the opposing offense doesn't go too small for him to stay relevant. I think he'll get that full run against Whiteside and the Trail Blazers here, and he could be the highest owned center on the slate as a result.
Nikola Vucevic FD - $8500 DK - $9100
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 47.78 DK - 49.6
Vucevic and Gordon might not be Parish and McHale, but they've sure been putting up DFS numbers recently. Vuc has set down his early season worries and topped 42 fantasy points in five straight games. He's got the best match-up possible here, with the Bulls sitting at dead last in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing centers this season. I love both Vuc and Valanciunas, and for me this decision might just come down to how much salary I have available.