Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Rocket Mortgage Classic
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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Detroit Golf Club
Par 72 - 7,340 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass/Poa Annua
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
- 2019 - Nate Lashley(-25)
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 4 Scoring
- Birdie or Better %
- Driving Accuracy/Fairways Gained
- Putting on Bent/Poa Greens
The revamped PGA Tour schedule rolls on with a trip to Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. You may not be as familiar with the event name or course as both made their first appearance on Tour last season.
The biggest difference this week vs. the three weeks prior is the field strength. We have consistently seen 5-10 of the World's best in these fields but have just three this week led by Webb Simpson(#6), Patrick Reed(#7), and Bryson DeChambeau(#10). That's right. Webb Simpson who withdrew from the last week's event with an "abundance of caution" is back and coming off his 7th career win two weeks ago at the RBC Heritage.
Looking back at last year's event, it was an absolute birdie fest out there with Nate Lashley hoisting the hardware with a winning score of -25 as the course ranked 42nd of 49 courses in terms of difficulty averaging almost two shots under par. With some amazing looking forecasts on tap this week, we could once again see a winning score in the -20's. There is a chance it could be lower as the course crew did grow out the rough to a posted average of 4" after sitting at about 3.5" last year. Even with that info, the portion of the field that made the cut averaged 65% driving accuracy with the Top 10 averaging over 70%. The key is going to be the approach game and those players not just hitting more of them(GIR) but hitting it closer(Proximity) will be at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
I am also high on Par 4 Scoring as I feel it is where players can separate themselves as the Par 5's played as the top 4 easiest holes a year ago meaning almost everyone is scoring on them. The 10 Par 4 holes are also set up with four of them under 400 yards and four of them 450+ yards which spread the approach shot distribution with 19.8% coming from 125-150 yards and 22.3% coming from 200+ yards. The range you should look at all depends on the golfer you are looking at in terms of driving distance and style of play.
With all that in mind, let's jump into my core plays in each price range.
Top Tier Targets
Is this week Bryson gets back into the winner's circle? It's sure lining up that way as he opens as the odds on favorite and has been one of the most consistent players on Tour, not just since the return but all season long. He missed the cut at the season-opening Greenbrier but has since tallied a whopping seven Top 10 finishes in nine events including three straight since golf returned. He is #3 in my stats model on the sheet but using Fantasy National Golf, I took a more short-term model approach and Bryson leads everyone in this field in Par 4 Scoring since the break gaining strokes in nine of 12 rounds. He is also 1st in DK scoring, 6th in SG: APP, and 8th in Birdie or Better Gained in that time. I don't think we need to go there for cash games but Bryson is definitely a core play for me in GPP this week.
With the transition from elite fields in the first three events, Hovland has seen a huge price bump this week($2,200 on DK, $1,200 on FD) but I am not scared off on bit. Playing with the best in the world, he has put together three straight Top 25's since golf returned and has shot in the 60's in six straight and 10 of 12 rounds. Looking at my short-term model on FNGC, he ranks(in this field) 5th in SG: Approach, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 5 Scoring, 4th in Opportunities Gained, and 25th in Birdie or Better Gained. The only area of concern has been the flat stick so it feels like once he starts draining a few more putts, he will adding another win to the trophy case. He is a core play for me in all formats.
Also Consider: Webb Simpson returning from his WD last week. He is 1st in both Par 4 and 5 scoring on the sheet along with a rank of 2nd in SG: APP and 9th in SG: Putting. Patrick Reed is ranked #1 in my overall model, finished T5 here last year, and ranks 6th in this field in average DK scoring since golf returned.
Mid Tier Targets
Is everyone ready for Doc Redman chalk week? That is what it is shaping up to be as he currently leads all golfers in tag count on FanShareSports and by a wide margin. All the love makes sense as he has been trending in a big way since the return of golf with a T56, T21, and T11 last week at the Travelers Championship. What stands out the most is his iron play(see stats below via FNGC) as he has gained an insane 17.6 strokes on approach in three events. Like Hovland, the putter has held him back from Top 10 finishes but the upside is most definitely there with his elite ball-striking form so I will ride it out with everyone else. There is a case to be made to fade the chalk and this is something I will do in 10-20% of my GPP lineups this week.
I really can't seem to get away from players who are average at best putting lately or overall but just can't ignore the ball striking and Varner is another player who jumps off the page in this area. Like players mentioned above, what stands out the most is the iron game as he has gained 13.7 strokes on approach since the return of golf and has now made the cut in five of his last six events with two Top 25 finishes. The hot iron play has helped almost every other area in his game as he ranks(in this field) 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Opportunities Gained, and 3rd in Birdie or Better % since the return. Varner missed the cut here last year but was in nowhere near the form so I am fully expecting a better result in his second trip.
World Golf Ranking (#46)
Vegas Odds (61/1)
If you are looking to pivot off chalky Redman, Bezudenhout is a player that stands out. The Euro Tour regular has now made five starts on the PGA Tour this season making four cuts and all of them inside the Top 30. How has he been so consistent? Above-average iron game and putter. Core play in all formats at these prices at a possible ownership discount.
Also Consider: Adam Hadwin has been very consistent and in consideration for cash games this week and could also be a bit lower owned due to a lack of top finishes lately but the fantasy scoring has been there as he is 6th in this field in Birdie or Better Gained and 12th in DK scoring since the return.
World Golf Ranking (#160)
Vegas Odds (126/1)
The value range was a huge success for me last week as I wrote up Duncan and Will Gordon. With Gordon's price taking a huge leap, I will side with Duncan who is the cheaper of the two this week and has been very consistent since the return of golf. He has finishes of T32, T28, and T38 in the three events while gaining a whopping 10 strokes on the approach shot. In this field, he ranks 9th in SG: Approach, 10th in Opportunities Gained, and 12th in Birdie or Better Gained. At these prices, sign me up for exposure in all formats.
World Golf Ranking (#377)
Vegas Odds (176/1)
After talking about him on the podcast this morning, I better back it up and get him in my value plays this week. He was the very first player I wrote up for DFSR back at the WMPO in 2015 and he rewarded me with a T30 so I didn't look completely lost with my first article. I won't ever have a ton of exposure to anyone down in this range but will have some this week. He has been off since February and doesn't really stand out in any one statistical area outside of Par 5 scoring but has made 12 of his last 13 cuts on Tour going back to the Travelers last June. That is all I am looking for this week and he could even be considered in cash if you wanted to go mega stars and scrubs with Bryson.