Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/30/20
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After a night full of aces on the mound, we get a much weaker player pool at the position tonight but short of some high floor/high upside options. The first name that stands out is Dinelson Lamet who currently tops the raw points projections and is coming off a tremendous start vs. the D-Backs where he allowed just five and one earned run while striking out eight and walking just one. This wasn't just a one-off upside game either as he posted a 33.6% K rate last season over 14 starts. With a combination of a price under 10K on both sites and a matchup vs. the Giants bottom five offense has him as my top pitcher on Thursday in all formats.
Next up we have Ross Stripling who, like Lamet, had a great start to the season giving up just four hits and one earned run while striking out seven and walking just one. He came in super cheap in that start and crushed value with 29 DK/49 FD points and that is about what we are looking for tonight against a D-Backs team that has only scored 13 runs over their first six games going into last night. Stripling and Lamet are my top pitchers and paired on DraftKings, still gives you an average of over $4K per hitter to fill out your lineup.
Pete Alonso FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 5100
Opponent - BOS (Martin Perez) Park - NYM
FD - 13.45 DK - 10.02
The Polar Bear made my article last night and is currently 3 for 3 and while the price went up $100 on both sites, he is once again one of my top PTS/$ bats when paying up at any position. Tonight he faces a weak lefty in Martin Perez who has been pretty terrible throughout his career and got blown up in his first start allowing five runs(4 earned) on six hits while striking out just two batters. Alonso is in play on both sites but his best value comes on DraftKings where he is the 13th most expensive bat on the main slate.
Renato Núñez FD - 1B 2600 DK - 3800
Opponent - NYY (Elieser Hernandez) Park - BAL
FD - 8.73 DK - 6.59
Anytime the Orioles face a left-handed pitcher, it immediately grabs my attention for value. They will face J.A. Happ making his season debut and, at least in my opinion, has his better days in the rearview mirror as the ERA has declined in each of the last four years bottoming out at 4.91 in 2019, a career-worst mark. For Nunez, he hits in the middle of the lineup and is coming off a career-high season with 31 home runs, doing most of his damage vs. lefties where he posted a .345 wOBA, 113 wRC+, and .240 ISO. He is in play in all formats, especially on fanDuel in the mid $2K range.
If you are playing over on DraftKings, LeMahieu likely jumped off the page for tonight as he is the 8th most expensive player at the position and somehow $1,100 cheaper than Ozzie Albies in a lefty/lefty matchup. He also checks almost every box hitting leadoff for a Yankees team who sits atop the implied run ranks once again tonight with their elite offense. LeMahieu also comes in with hits in each of his first three games in including three as of writing this with his first homer of the year, as well. To cap it off, he gets a plus matchup vs. an average-at-best pitcher and absolutely crushed lefties last season to the tune of a .375 average, .443 wOBA, and 182 wRC+.
David Fletcher FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B/3B 3200
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - LAA
FD - 9.27 DK - 7.27
Hanser Alberto FD - 2B 2600 DK - 3600
Opponent - NYY (Elieser Hernandez) Park - BAL
FD - 7.48 DK - 6.14
For value, there are a couple options in play the first of which is David Fletcher who I talked about last night. He isn't going to carry your team to GPP glory but is a terrific cash game option hitting leadoff in front of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon as the Angels are top 3 in implied runs tonight.
I will go back to the Orioles here for value as they have some bats who thrive vs. left-handed pitching. Alberto is one of those as he has posted a .406 wOBA, 155 wRC+, and .962 OPS vs. southpaw pitching since the start of last year. He is in play in all formats on both sites with his best value coming on FanDuel in the mid $2K range.
With Rosario getting the night off last night, I will post what I wrote about him last night to start.
This is an odd one in that Rosario is massively overpriced on DraftKings but sits in the mid $2K range on FanDuel making him a great value. That is if he is back in the leadoff spot where he has spent each of the last three game. Stay tuned for lineups.
The same thing applies tonight as he is super cheap on FanDuel and should be back in the leadoff in an even better matchup vs. a lefty. The Mets keep putting up runs and make a great core team to target in all formats once again.
You can definitely make a case for paying up for either Tatis or Torres at shortstop and while I will have exposure in GPP, I will stick with the value route for cash games and spend up elsewhere. Crawford is a player I will be targeting on both sites for a couple of reasons starting with the word of the day "opportunity". His spot in the order has not been consistent but he has spent half the M's games in one of the two top spots in the lineup. He also enters tonight with hits in three straight and four of his last five games.
Just like the shortstop position above, you can definitely pay up for an elite bat in Rendon or Turner but we can't pay up for everyone and I am going a different direction with my top-priced bats. Kyle Seager comes to us in the mid-tier of pricing on both sites, gets a plus matchup vs. Dylan Bundy, and has started the season with hits in five of his first six games with four extra-base hits and four RBI. More than enough for me to plant my flag on Seager Island in cash games tonight.
Maikel Franco FD - 3B 2600 DK - 3B 2000
Opponent - DET (IvÃ¡n Nova) Park - DET
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.31
If you find you need some added salary for some of the top bats in elite spots tonight, don't overlook Maikel Franco. After a fairly disappointing run in Philly, Franco is getting a fresh start in Kansas City this season and while he isn't going to be the picture of consistency he is the bare minimum on DraftKings and has multi-homer upside which he has already shown this season. Most of all, the savings allow us to stack the bats at other positions.
With all the value plays and lack of elite pitching, we are going to have some cash to spend tonight and no better spot than with the Yankees who once again lead all teams in implied runs. I will have a lot of stacks with Judge and Stanton with their slate-breaking power upside but lean Judge if we are talking cash games and especially on DraftKings where he is $600 cheaper tonight. I also prefer sequencing two or three bats in a lineup in cash and I already mentioned LeMahieu at leadoff and add Judge in there and that is my top 1-2 cash stack tonight.
According to the early vegas lines and implied run lines, I may be a little off my rocker but I sure like the Mariners as a low owned, GPP pivot. I talked about Seager's hot start above and it is pretty much the same story for Lewis who is currently 2 for 4 as I write this and now has hits in all six games including four straight multi-hit efforts. There haven't been many players as consistent as Lewis to start this odd season and he deserves our attention in all formats.
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- Yankees Orioles Baseball: (AP Photo/Nick Wass)