Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/1/20
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The Padres stepped up big time for us yesterday thanks to Wade Davis and it's true that Coors Field never fails. We're not going to be quite as high on that game today but it's always difficult to fade any matchup in Denver. With that in mind, let's start things off with some pitchers.
Glasnow honestly might be a Top-5 pitcher in the league in terms of stuff. While he's still young, Glasnow has proven to be one of the most dangerous arms around over the last two years. Between this year and last, he's pitched to a 1.81 ERA and 0.88 WHIP while striking out 85 batters across 64.2 innings. Those look like dominant numbers from a reliever and it's clear that he's got the capability to be an absolute ace. What we like today is that he gets to face the Orioles. This is a team that ranked 22nd in runs scored and 26th in OPS last season, and they've lost their best hitter this year (Trey Mancini). That's why the Rays enter this matchup as a -210 favorite and why Baltimore is barely projected to crack three runs.
This is more of a DraftKings pitcher 2 sort of pick, but Fiers can definitely take advantage of a lineup like this. We're talking about a team that had the second-worst batting average last season and ranks 25th in K rate this year. Having Daniel Vogelbach as your All-Star representative tells you everything you need to know. That was evident in Fiers' final three starts against the Mariners last season, scoring at least 20 FanDuel points in all of them. A lot of that is representative in the -150 spread in favor of the A's, only adding to Fiers value.
Goldy is the model of consistency and we have to love him anytime he faces a weak lefty. That's certainly what we have here, with Anderson posting a 4.74 ERA and 1.41 WHIP since 2016. That's ugly on its own but it doesn't even take into consideration his nightmarish 16 percent career K rate. That's truly horrifying in a place like Miller Park, setting Anderson up for a terrible season. Goldy has slaughtered southpaws throughout his career too, owning a .428 OBP and 1.016 OPS against them.
José Abreu FD - 1B 3000 DK - 1B 4200
Opponent - KC (Undecided) Park - KC
FD - 10.23 DK - 7.77
Abreu and Goldschmidt are actually very similar players at this point in their respective careers and both guys are being undervalued on these DFS sites. Amazingly, his .280 average and .788 OPS this season are the lowest numbers of his stellar career and one big game could get him right on track to his career numbers. While we don't know the matchup quite yet, that's a good sign altogether. The Royals threw out a Single-A pitcher on Friday and it looks like they may do the same here. That's why we have the White Sox projected for five runs and Abreu would surely play a major factor in that high total.
Rougned Odor FD - 2B 2900 DK - 2B 4500
Opponent - SF (Undecided) Park - SF
FD - 9.55 DK - 7.2
The second base position is downright ugly on this slate. The reason we like Odor today is because he's below $3,000 on FanDuel and has been productive so far this season. The .176 AVG is certainly not pretty but he's scored at least 12 fantasy points in three of his five games this season. That has moved him up to third in the Rangers order which only adds to his value. He's going to be a boom or bust sort of guy, but when you can grab a 2B with 30 home run power in the middle of the order you have to accept the good with the bad. This is yet another game with an unclear starter and it seems likely that San Fran will call-up a nobody to face Odor and the Rangers. As long as it's a righty, Odor remains a great value.
This is definitely one of the best punt plays of the day. Pinder is barely cracking minimum on both sites but should be above $3,000 according to our numbers. The reason for that is because he gets to face a lefty. Since 2018, Pinder has a .783 OPS against southpaws. That's why he typically bats second or sixth against lefties and those are the numbers you'd expect from a $3,000 player. Getting to face Kikuchi may be the best part of this play though, with the Seattle slinger pitching to a 5.61 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his Major League career.
If you don't want these cheap guys, Jose Altuve is definitely worth a shot up top.
Story hit yet another dinger on Friday, further proving just how beastly he can be at Coors Field. Since 2018, Story has a .384 OBP, .670 SLG and 1.054 OPS at home. That's even scarier when you consider his splits, owning a 1.014 OPS against southpaws in that same span. All of that is bad news for a guy like Lucchesi, who allowed eight runs across 3.2 innings in his most recent start there back in September. Those ridiculous averages have earned Story this monstrous price tag but it's definitely worth it with all of the other cheap options available.
Adalberto Mondesi FD - SS 2600 DK - SS 3900
Opponent - CHW (Gio Gonzalez) Park - KC
FD - 11.01 DK - 8.55
Mondesi is someone that I loved in season-long drafts coming into the season and he's been a huge disappointment thus far. That can be a good thing for DFS purposes though, dropping his prices to numbers that we can't overlook. We're talking about a guy who will likely lead the league in steals and averaged over 10 FD points per game last season. That's huge with him scoring at least 9.0 FanDuel points in three-straight games, moving him back up in the order. The icing on the cake is the platoon advantage against Gio Gonzalez, with the lefty owning a 4.12 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over the last three seasons. Getting Mondesi on base is the key and he can wreak havoc when he bunnying around the base paths.
Fernando Tatis Jr. pops up highly in our projections but is very pricey. He does get the platoon advantage in Coors Field though and that makes him a great option.
Machado found his way into this article yesterday and it's hard to go away from him with all of these beautiful statistics in his favor. He happened to have 10 games at Coors Field last year, generating a .469 OBP and 1.225 OPS in those outings. That's obviously absurd and it looks even more intriguing when you consider this matchup. Machado and the Padres get to face lefty Kyle Freeland, who pitched to a 6.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP last year. Not to mention, Machado had a .404 OBP and 1.089 OPS against southpaws last season as well.
Yandy Díaz FD - 3B 2700 DK - 3B 4200
Opponent - BAL (Wade LeBlanc) Park - BAL
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.23
The Rays are quietly one of the best stacks of the day, projected for over five runs against the O's. Diaz will definitely play a big part in that, destroying lefties throughout his career. In fact, he had a .393 OBP and .976 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor last year. That's why he typically bats in the heart of this order, making him a great piece of our Tampa stack. The thing that makes this stack so enticing is the matchup against Wade LeBlanc, who has a 4.47 ERA and 1.34 WHIP for his career.
Don't forget that Nolan Arenado gets to face a lefty at home too.
José Martínez FD - OF 2900 DK - 1B 4700
Opponent - BAL (Wade LeBlanc) Park - BAL
FD - 11.52 DK - 8.85
Let's keep the Rays bats rolling with these two righties. Displaying LeBlanc's ugly numbers in the Diaz write-up is a good representation of why we like this offense, and all of the righties make them hard to fade. Let's start things off with Renfroe, who's quietly one of the best home run hitters in the league right now. Against southpaws last season, he had a .575 SLG and .906 OPS. That pairs really nicely with Martinez, who has a .325 average and .980 OPS against lefties since 2018. The best part about all this is that all of these Rays bats are affordable and they could be stackable with the Coors Field game.
Let's keep the two-man stacks rolling with these Oakland bats. It's easy to say we want to stack against Kikuchi when you see his 12.27 ERA and 2.64 WHIP this season but it looks even more tempting with all of the cheap righties the A's possess. Getting behind Davis is a tough ask the way he's playing but these price tags are crazy for someone who's got 156 homers since 2016. His worst season in that stretch was last year but he still generated a .380 OBP, .538 SLG and .918 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. Piscotty's numbers are pretty impressive too, tallying a .360 AVG, .628 SLG and 1.019 OPS against southpaws last season also. That makes the $3,300 DK and $2,400 FD price tags hard to figure and it puts Piscotty squarely in play.
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- Paul Goldschmidt: AP Photo/Matt York