Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 8/5/20It's been a great restart. The games have been to the wire and our projections remain on point. Let's take a look at plays for FanDuel and DraftKings on Wednesday.
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Point GuardBen Simmons FD - $8000 DK - $8700
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 45.22 DK - 44.84
Shake Milton FD - $4300 DK - $5400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 24.24 DK - 24.98
Technically, the Sixers have listed Simmons as playing their full-time power forward, but that’s not exactly a perfect description of how they are using him now. It’s definitely a hybrid role that has the ball in his hands at the top of high sets and still facilitating the offense to a certain degree. In the first game he piled on a 19 point, 13 rebound, four assist game against the Pacers. He struggled against the Spurs in the second game, but got burned off hard because of foul trouble. The matchup against the Wizards is too good to pass up at these prices though. A heavy transition game should help him and he’s simply coming too cheap.
Meanwhile Milton has had a similar tale of two games with his own games. He was terrible against the Pacers but pulled it back around against the Spurs hitting the game-winner and finishing with 16 points and five rebounds. He, like Simmons, is coming too cheap for the opportunity and opponent.
Dejounte Murray FD - $6500 DK - $6000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.34 DK - 32.67
He got run off minutes in the first Spurs’ restart game because of foul trouble, but the second two haven’t been any problem in that department with Murray running 34 and 29 respectively. His fantasy gift is contributing across every part of the stat line which considerably raises his floor and makes the ceiling up there as well. He put up a 21 point and 10 rebound game against the Grizz, with 13 points and 6 rebounds against the very long Sixers. He’ll now face an undermanned Denver team. I think the minutes stay in the low 30’s and it’s hard to imagine him hurting you at these prices outside of the aforementioned foul trouble.
It was rough to start, but Monte Morris (FD $4500 DK $5100) ended up getting there last game. If Jamal Murray is out again then the former is still a play.
Shooting GuardFred Vanvleet FD - $7000 DK - $7700
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 38.62 DK - 39
VanVleet has spent the bubble restart playing max minutes in the first two games and that’s something we like to see from a projections standpoint. He ran 40 against the Lakers and 42 against the Heat. That kind of run, on a consistent basis, is the single best thing that can happen from a fantasy perspective. He dropped a monster line in the second game with a 36 point performance thanks to 7-12 from three and 13-13 from the line. That kind of usage isn’t likely to happen going forward, but you have to love the minutes.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $6900 DK - $6700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 36.55 DK - 36.61
SGA was a massive start on Monday with Dennis Schroder having to leave the bubble and out of the lineup. It was looking very dicey to start with Gilgeous-Alexander getting into foul trouble and buzzing minutes. He made it up somewhat and late in overtime, but the 24 points and five rebounds were somewhat disappointing at these prices. I wouldn’t say I’m a firm believer still at these prices and our system actually avoided this chalk play on Monday. But there’s reason to go back to the well if you got burned the first time around. The minutes should be there against the Lakers and the usage does climb when Schroder is off the court.
Have to seriously consider Caris Levert (FD $7400 DK $7800) here if he’s in the lineup.
Small ForwardJoe Harris FD - $4700 DK - $5400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 25.48 DK - 26.93
On the one hand, you might question how serious the Nets are taking the bubble, leaving almost everyone at home and even sitting their three best remaining players against the Bucks. Been then these f@#$ers actually beat Milwaukee on Tuesday (as -19.5 dogs btw) and now who knows? They have a chance to actually avoid Milwaukee in the playoffs with continuing to win and I suspect there’s a chance they go all out from here on in. That’s the LeVert case and Harris plays a part as well. He ran 37 minutes against the Wizards on Sunday and finished with 27 points and seven rebounds. That’s what we love to see at these prices.
Troy Brown FD - $5900 DK - $5500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.96 DK - 31.96
Do the Wizards stink? Of course. Does that mean we need to avoid them from a fantasy perspective? Of course not. Brown was expected to the be the usage king on these team with Bradley Beal sitting out the restart and that’s *mostly* been the case. He’s averaging more than 13 shots per game though some of that comes from outsized looks against the Nets. I do think it’s part of the plan to have him at the center of the offense. From a floor perspective, it’s great that he’s eight rebounds and assists respectively over the last two games. I’m willing to roll it back in this one against the Sixers.
Power ForwardMichael Porter Jr. FD - $5500 DK - $6200
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 37.28 DK - 38.07
Paul Millsap FD - $4800 DK - $5100
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 32.09 DK - 32.23
The Nuggets are still without Gary Harris and Will Barton (with Jamal Murray questionable). That’s left a ton of minutes and subsequent usage on the table for Denver. We’ve had Michael Porter Jr. as a play in the last two games. The first game was something of a mess with Porter struggling in 25 minutes. But the second was a masterpiece. He rolled 39 minutes in regulation (44 total) and finished with 37 points and 12 rebounds. The dude has been a fantasy point per minute beast since entering the league with the run being the only thing holding him back. That’s not a concern at this point and we should be happy to run him in cash games at these prices.
Millsap was something of the same story. He also struggled in the first game, but ran 30 minutes in regulation against OKC with a 17/6/2 line. If he’s going to play high-20’s/ low-30’s minutes with Denver fighting for playoff seeding then he’s also definitely a play at these prices against an undersized Spurs’ team.
Brandon Clarke FD - $4900 DK - $4600
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 31.93 DK - 31.27
The bummer of the century is that usually power forward on FanDuel is an absolute hellscape and on Wednesday there are three pretty solid options. With the news that Jaren Jackson will miss the rest of the restart with a torn meniscus it should open all of the minutes up to Clarke. It’s likely the latter starts at power forward for the Grizzlies who now face a tough task of holding on to that eight seed in the West. Clarke has been a fantasy point per minute guy. For the season, he’s averaging 12 points, six rebounds, and 1.3 blocks+steals in just 22 minutes per game. That run is set to increase significantly now with the Grizz playing shorthanded around the four.
CenterJarrett Allen FD - $6700 DK - $5400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 37.38 DK - 37.68
Dude ran 38 minutes on Sunday and the Nets decided to give him a day off on Tuesday. That’s the long and short of this “injury”. Allen should be in line again for heavy minutes against the undersized Celtics. And after the win over the Bucks on Tuesday, I think Brooklyn might have its sights set firmly on the seven seed. Allen’s game against the Wizards consisted of 22 points and 15 rebounds, a number he’s also capable of putting up against the Celtics considering their front court is lacking in any playable size after Daniel Theis (who’s already pushing it).
Jakob Poeltl FD - $5400 DK - $5000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.63 DK - 27.69
I’m still very much dreaming on Poeltl’s restart upside though it’s been an up and down venture up until this point. Without Aldridge, he got the minutes against the Kings in the first game but wasn’t ablate contribute all that much. In the second two games, the fantasy points per minute increased, but so did the foul trouble. He fouled out of both games. He draws another tough matchup against Jokic in this game, but the early struggles have also kept the price low. This one is a tough call, but the center position isn’t all that great and I do think low-30’s minutes is realistic.