Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/6/20
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The price on Chatwood continues to go up but I am still shocked it is below $10K on DraftKings with the combination of how well he has pitched and the matchup. Let's talk Chatwood first who has been dominant to start the year allowing just six hits and one earned run over 12.2 innings while striking out 19 batters(40%). Tonight, he gets another plus matchups the Cubs open as -165 favorites against a Royals team that sits at the bottom of the standings and ranks bottom six in runs scored, wOBA and wRC+ on the season. All things considered, Chatwood is my top pitcher in all formats tonight.
Things really fall off after the top three pitchers on the main slate. Despite the Jays opening as slight underdogs(+119), I love the PTS/$ floor and ceiling at these prices with the Jays #1 prospect, Nate Pearson. In his first career start, against the defending champs, he went almost pitch for pitch with Max Scherzer before being shut down at just over 70 pitches and tallied five strikeouts while allowing just two hits. He gets another tough NL East opponent tonight as the Braves are Top 10 or close in almost all offensive categories to start the season but the good news is that they have struck out over 28% of the time as a team. At these prices, on this smaller main slate, I am willing to take the risk and ride with Pearson as my SP2 in all formats on DraftKings and as a punt GPP play on FanDuel to load up the bats.
I was high on the Cubs last night and headed right back there tonight as they are currently one of six teams projected to score five or more runs. It starts with Anthony Rizzo who despite having just a .222 average going into Wednesday night has hits in eight of 11 games and sits with an elite .398 wOBA so I am fully expecting that average to come back up soon. He provides a ton of power and gets a matchup vs. Brad Keller making his first start of the season and ended 2019 with a 1.54 WHIP and 5.04 xFIp vs. left-handed batters. Rizzo is not only my top player at first but one of my top plays overall.
Things have not been great in Arizona to start the year but Walker has been one of the few bright spots and if fading Rizzo is my next option at the position. Going from a secondary piece to a core one has not affected him at all as he has hits in eight of 10 games with a .343 wOBA and 117 wRC+. He hits in the middle of the lineup and faces Brandon Bielak who may have picked up wins out of the bullpen in his first two appearances but he also gave up over 50% hard contact so we will see how that plays out as he gets his first start.
DJ LeMahieu FD - 2B 3900 DK - 4500
Opponent - PHI (Undecided) Park - TB
FD - 9.07 DK - 7.01
If you are playing the main slate on DraftKings, it is very hard to ignore DJ Lemahieu as the sixth most expensive option at second. He hits leadoff for the Yankees powerhouse offense and has done tons with his opportunity with hits in eight of 10 games including five multi-hit efforts and enters tonight with an insane .415 average. He is my top play at the position from a raw points perspective.
You may have noticed I have had a little addiction to the Cubs lately and it is somewhat justified as they entered Wednesday ranked 7th in runs scored, 3rd in wOBA, and 4th in wRC+ as a team. There are tons of big bits once again but get to them in our lineups we are going to need some value. Last night I was on Hoerner against the lefty(it didn't work out) and tonight it's the crafty veteran in Jason Kipnis vs. the righty. He isn't going to win you a GPP very often hut has returned solid PTS/$ value with hits in four of five games this season.
The shortstop position is a very tough spot tonight but one name that stands out is Bo Bichette. He is a part of the Jays up and coming core and has already made big strides towards stardom. He has been limited to just six games due to some COVID postponements but comes into tonight with multi-hit efforts in three of his last four games and hits in five of six overall. If you are loading up on Cubs, Baez is the play on DraftKings while Bichette stands out more on FanDuel at just $2,700 tonight.
Orlando Arcia FD - SS 2200 DK - SS 2700
Opponent - CHW (Gio Gonzalez) Park - CHW
FD - 7.57 DK - 5.86
If you are loading up elsewhere and looking to punt shortstop, Arcia is one name that stands out at the moment before lineups are out. He does hit at the bottom of the order which really limits his upside but does have hits in four of six games in which he has started and has much better splits vs. lefties. The pickings are slim making Arcia one of my top punts on this slate.
Gio Urshela FD - 3B 3200 DK - 4800
Opponent - PHI (Undecided) Park - TB
FD - 7.01 DK - 5.39
Urshela has been an exception to my rule of not using bottom of the order(7th-9th) hitters in cash games and it mostly has to do with the explosive Yankees lineup from top to bottom. It also has to do with the early season success Urshela is having as he entered Wednesday with .300 average, .449 wOBA, and 198 wRC+ and had home runs in three of his last four games. The third base position is lacking overall value so it is a great spot to spend up tonight.
Brian Anderson FD - 3B 3100 DK - 4400
Opponent - BAL (Undecided) Park - MIA
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.55
Things most definitely have not gone to plan for the Marlins who got an extended break after their opening series due to 14+ COVID positive cases. While they have had to replace a lot of players, it appears they are using it as momentum as they have won three straight vs. the Orioles since returning to the diamond. While a small sample, Anderson has been solid with a hit in five of six games and has power upside with two home runs. It wouldn't be 2020 without recommending a Marlins player so fire him up in all formats tonight.
For a more balanced approach, especially in cash, I am going back to the Cubs tonight and as I mentioned with Rizzo, I like the lefties as my core plays. While the average(.231) hasn't been there for Schwarber to start the year, he did go into Wednesday with hits in eight of 11 games with two home runs and an above-average 115 wRC+. The price is close on fanDuel but Happ is much cheaper on DratKings and has actually been better to start the year with a .281/.395/.625 slash line and already has three home runs. His spot in the order is not consistent but his bat is and he is one of my top PTS/$ plays in the slate.
Eloy Jiménez FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 3900
Opponent - MIL (Josh Lindblom) Park - CHW
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.38
The White Sox let us down in a big way last night but I am a sucker for punishment and will go back to the well with one of the hottest offenses in baseball to start the season. Jimenez has been the definition of a roller coaster ride as he has six hitless games and four mutli-hit games through the first 10 played. That combined with his spot in the order(5th/6th) has me reserving him for GPP only on FanDuel but he does stand out on DraftKings a bit as the 35th highest priced outfielder on the main slate.