Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday 9/1/20

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Celtics Celtics (1.5) vs. Raptors Raptors (-1.5)

Boston took it to Toronto in game one of this series, winning in pretty easy fashion 112-94 with starters losing minutes all around. I’m not sure we learned a ton from this game beyond Boston shooting 44% from three and Toronto 25%.

From a value stand point, Daniel Theis (FD $5300 DK $5200) was excellent on his minutes, putting in 13 points and grabbing 15 rebounds. He’s unlikely to get to the line seven more times so I think the scoring is something of an outlier, but it’s clear they need his size on the court up against either Marc Gasol or Serge Ibaka.

The Celtics did spread the shot wealth around among Jayson Tatum (18), Jaylen Brown (18), Kemba Walker (11) and Marcus Smart (10). I still think, in a close game that all four are value plays with maybe only Tatum being priced out a little in comparison.

Jaylen Brown (FD $6300 DK $7300) had foul trouble last game but is still coming in at a fair price, especially on FanDuel. Meanwhile, Marcus Smart (FD $5700 DK $6000) was lights out from three (5-9) on his way to 21 points. He’s a candidate to take on a heavy minutes load going forward because of his defense in close games. I love him on both sites even sharing the court with other higher usage guys.

It’s easy to get down on Toronto, but it was only one game. Fred Vanvleet (FD $7600 DK $7800) is still a mid-tier play and really struggled from the field (3-16) in game one. I’m not writing him off and Nick Nurse has shown that he can run 42-43 minutes in close games no problem.

Marc Gasol (FD $4500 DK $4100) is a cheap DraftKings play and got out there for mid-20’s minutes in game one. That’s about all you need from him and it’s worth a reminder that cheap guys with steady minutes are near impossible to find these days on short playoff slates.

Jazz Jazz (-1) vs. Nuggets Nuggets (+1)

Jamal Murray (FD $9400 DK $9700) and Donovan Mitchell (FD $8500 DK $9900) put on a show for the ages on Sunday, going for another head-to-head, mano-y-mano in an absolute scoring display. The numbers are just stupid and it was a spectacle to watch. Murray dropped 50 points for the second time in three games and over that stretch has averaged 47 points, eight rebounds and seven assists on 64% shooting from the field and an absurd 63% from three. Is is sustainable long term? Of course not. Is it something you want to fade on a two-game slate? Also probably no.

Meanwhile, Mitchell has been equally ridiculous over the series, averaging 39 points and 5.5 assists, taking 23 shots per game, shooting 56% from three for the series (the series!) on close to 10 attempts per game. Again, like Murray these numbers aren’t going to continue long term, but man fading him at all over these last six games has been a mistake. On the two-gamer here on Tuesday, stacking these guys and hoping they duel it out again is going to be the chalk play.

Rudy Gobert (FD $7300 DK $7900) is averaging 39 minutes per game in this series with an average of 17 points and 10 rebounds. He’s very much a value on both sites considering the Jazz just really don’t want him off the court at all.

Jerami Grant (FD $5100 DK $5100) is still a value though I don’t think the game six shooting efficiency is walking back through that door again. I don’t mind the price, but I wouldn’t expect the 18 points again. And it’s worth mentioning that he did almost nothing else over the course of his 35 minutes except score. He had one rebound, zero assists and chipped in a couple of blocks.

Royce O'Neale (FD $4600 DK $4500) has played 37 or more minutes in each of the last three and he needs every one of them to hit value even on these prices. In that span he averaged six points, four rebounds and three assists with some steals thrown in. It’s not pretty, but you need to save somewhere on these smaller slates and he offers the chance to do that with at least the minutes upside.







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