Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Saturday 9/5/20
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Celtics (1) vs. Raptors (-1)
Well, this was a truly incredible game three. The Kemba assist. The OG shot, of course. And now instead of wondering if the series will be a sweep we have the Celtics who have to be sweating just a little bit. From a DFS perspective, our system likes this game a lot better than the other game for a couple of factors. First of all, these teams are playing tight games, and losing minutes to blowout likely goes out the window at this point. Second of all, both of these teams are consolidating minutes to an absurd degree, relying on their starters rather than their benches. The Raptors' bench played just 43 minutes in game three, and the Celtics' bench played just over 54 minutes.
As a result, our system likes every single one of the Raptors' starters, and prioritizes game three hero OG Anunoby (FD $5800 DK $5600), who played nearly every minute of game three before hitting the game winner. It ranks Kyle Lowry (FD $9000 DK $7800) as the worst buy on FanDuel, but a very solid play on DraftKings. Both of the Toronto guards shot more than 20 times in game three, and have to be considered high floor options regardless.
On the Celtics' side we see more of the same. The best play is a guy who is playing unexpectedly high minutes in Marcus Smart (FD $5500 DK $6500), whose FanDuel price in particular hasn't caught up with the minutes. With four guys who shot 15 times or more, things are spread out enough that you're not really forcing any given Celtic into your lineup, but instead just mixing and matching based on what priced player you need where.
vs. Nuggets (+9)
Now we head into a game two of a series where we learned precious little. We can't get a sense for where the minutes are headed here since both teams rested their starters on account of the blowout. So where do we begin? Unfortunately, we sort of begin where we started.
Let's start with the Nuggets, who are by far the riskiest team to prioritize on today's two game slate. Our system sees just three Nuggets as interesting on this slate. By far the highest upside play is Nikola Jokic (FD $9500 DK $9500), who will have to be the focal point of the Nuggets' offense if they are going to contend. The Clippers have elite defenders at basically every position except center, and Jokic happens to be one of the only bigs in the league you can run an offense through. The risk, of course, is what we saw in game one. The game script can play Jokic out of the offense, and then you've invested a lot of money in a guy who isn't a part of his team's catching up plan.
After Jokic, I do see Jerami Grant (FD $4800 DK $4900) and Gary Harris (FD $4000 DK $4000) as good cheap options to fill in around the edges of your lineup. They both can shoot the three, and both should be a part of any contest that stays close. They are also cheap enough that you don't lose automatically if you miss on them, unlike Jokic.
On the Clippers, side, our system like Ivica Zubac (FD $4900 DK $4800) at center. He played a lot of minutes and will be out there as long as Jokic is. Paul George (FD $7700 DK $8200) and Marcus Morris (FD $5000 DK $5400) look like excellent options given how the Clippers match up against the Nuggets, and Kawhi Leonard looks a little too expensive given the fact that you're likely going to have to play a balanced lineup tonight.
All in all it should be another great day of hoops, so dig in and have some fun!