Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 9/7/20
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Celtics (-1) vs. Raptors (+1)
After falling down 0-2 to start the series, the Raptors have clawed their way back in to it than’s the a buzzer beater on Thursday and another win on Saturday. We are now knotted up at two games apiece entering a pivotal game five.
Toronto is unapologetically running four of their five starters huge, huge minutes with Pascal Siakam (FD $8400 DK $8100), Kyle Lowry (FD $9200 DK $8200) and Fred Vanvleet (FD $7900 DK $7800) all going 44 or more minutes in game four. There is such a fantastic fantasy floor when this is the case and it isn’t a new thing for the Raptors. They’ve done this much of the bubble and most of the year.
VanVleet has gotten back on track with the shooting, going 5-11 from three in game four though only finished with 17 points. The 6-19 from the field held him back some and I do think there’s still some upside at his prices if he really dials it in for a games.
Lowry also struggled some from the field going 5-16 in his 44 minutes but did knock down all eight free throws on his way to 22 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists. Stacking both him and VanVleet in the backcourt is probably something like the cash game chalk on this Monday slate.
Siakam had his best game of the series and led the team in shots with 23. The three-point shooting was completely terrible (2-13) and honestly Toronto should feel a bit blessed that they won this game. Siakam is behind the other two guys (for me) in terms of cash game safety.
On the flip side, Boston ran its own trio of Kemba Walker (FD $8300 DK $8000), Jayson Tatum (FD $9400 DK $9300) and Marcus Smart (FD $5700 DK $6500) more than 40 minutes in the last game. All three struggled to varying extents but for our purposes, we are simply interested in the minutes because the production, theoretically speaking, should follow suit.
We’ve been on this path and I still think it’s mostly correct, but stacking 2-4 of these guys in cash feels like the way to go considering their respective price points. I’d probably put Smart and Walker at the top of that list with where they are on the price scale for both site. Jaylen Brown is right there on FanDuel as well.
Clippers (-7.5) vs. Nuggets (+7.5)
Denver pulled off a somewhat surprising game two win to even the series at 1-1. They capitalized some on the Clippers struggling from three but, in all, looked like a solid team against Los Angeles.
Nikola Jokic (FD $9400 DK $9700) put up an absolute monster game with 26 points, 18 rebounds an four assists in 37 minutes. He’s coming a bit lower on the pay scale because his first round wasn’t all that great (fantasy-wise) against the Jazz and Gobert. He doesn’t face the same defensive matchup here and if the Nuggets can keep games close then he is one of the best points per dollar values on this slate.
Jerami Grant (FD $5000 DK $5200) is still playing a ton of minutes and is integral to what Denver needs to do on defense against the Clippers’ wings. But man, dude can really make you sweat on the price even with the minutes. He played 40 in game two but went 1-9 from the field (0-5 from three) and finished with only five points. He made up for it on the defensive end, but five blocks + steals is tough to count on.
A guy who’s going to maybe make or break this slate is Paul Millsap (FD $4900 DK $4700) who pulled out an out-of-nowhere 32 minutes in game two with 13 points and six rebounds. For the price, on this slate, those kinds of minutes would be an auto-play. I’m just a little worried because that hasn’t been the plan up until this last game.
If I’m spending, I suppose you have to consider Kawhi Leonard (FD $10600 DK $10300) who’s taken over the (almost) full load for the Clippers’ offense. But I do think he might be a little expensive at this point considering it’s tough to find much in the way of savings.
On these two-game slates, where value is tough to come by, Ivica Zubac (FD $5000 DK $4900) still rings as a value even at these mid-tier prices. He played only 20 minutes last game but still put up 15 points and nine rebounds. He played 24 in game one when the Clippers were actually winning. This is an important distinction because against Jokic, in a game in which they lead, I think the Clips do want Zubac’s size out there.
I’m not making too much of the game Marcus Morris (FD $5100 DK $5100) had last time out. He’s still a value at power forward on FanDuel and is a game away from dropping 18 points and five rebounds in 27 minutes. The minutes are ultra safe considering how much LAC relies on his defensive versatility.