Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/6/20
Happy Labor(Labour for you Canadians) Day everyone. We have a full day of action today with a small three-game slate, a six-game main slate, and two games in between. I will be concentrating on the main slate, for the most part, but try and mix in some picks throughout the day. As always, head over and check out the projections/lineup optimizer and then hit us up in chat with any questions. Let's get started.
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Anderson has put his transitional troubles from AA to AAA in the rearview in 2020 as the Braves 2016 1st round pick has been tremendous to start his career in the big leagues. He has gone six innings and picked up the win in both starts striking out 14 and walking just three and making this even better is the fact he faces the Red Sox and Yankees lineups. He now gets a much better matchup against the Marlins who have posted an ugly .291 wOBA, 83 wRC+, and 26.6% K rate over the past 14 days. I will have exposure to Anderson in all formats on Monday.
The Indians made it abundantly clear that there is no room for breaking protocol in Cleveland. Plesac and Clevinger did this by leaving their hotel in early August and were promptly suspended and sent down to the "alternate site". Clevinger was then traded to the Padres for prospects while Plesac now has to sit in his own mess and earn his team's trust back.
It was a great first step as he was dominant last Tuesday upon his return to the club allowing just four hits over six innings with six strikeouts. He now gets to face that same Royals team who have posted a .292 wOBA, 80 wRC+, and 22.5% K rate over the last 14 days. Plesac is a top pitcher on Monday and safe in all formats.
Small slates are always tough and despite the Twins struggles as a team lately, they are my top team to target. They easily get the best matchup against Michael Fulmer who has posted a 7.27 ERA/4.95 xFIP while getting the start but not going deep. What leads me to Sano is the fact both he and Fulmer have reverse splits. Fulmer has given up 13 hits(5 HR) in 32 at-bats while Sano has a .416 wOBA, 166 wRC+, and seven home runs across 86 at-bats in the splits. He is in play in all formats.
While I am not in love with the lefty/lefty matchup, Tellez comes $500 and $300 cheaper than Vladdy on DraftKings and FanDuel and has been better both in the short term and overall. Rowdy is coming off back to back three-hit games and has at least one hit in eight of his last nine games. I am not expecting Montgomery to go deep so Rowdy should only have to face him once or twice so at these prices, he is in play in all formats for me tonight.
Cesar Hernández FD - 2B 2800 DK - 2B 3800
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - CLE
FD - 11 DK - 8.51
The Indians lead all teams in implied runs tonight so targeting their leadoff hitter makes a ton of sense. What makes it even better is the fact Hernandez remains under $4k on DraftKings and in the mid $2K range on FanDuel which helps roster his high-priced, high-powered teammates hitting behind him. Cesar has been consistent all season hitting .277 with a .360 OBP and is a switch hitter who has been much more effective against righties with a .354 wOBA and 120 wRC+. Fire him up in all formats.
The A's lead the American League West and bolstered their infield at the trade deadline acquiring Tommy La Stella. He has been inserted as the team's leadoff hitter and while he went hitless in his first two games, he has come on strong with back to back multi-hit games on Saturday and Sunday. The price is getting up there on DraftKings but as long as he remains in that leadoff spot, he is in play in all formats.
On the early slate, if you aren't targeting the Twins you better be on the Braves who are also big favorites(-190) today. They have the second-best record in the National League which has been driven by their offense which ranks 2nd in wOBA(.345) and 6th in wRC+(113) on the season. Swanson has been a spark plug for the offense hitting at the top of the lineup and has really heated up since mid-August posting a .314/.359/.535 slash line. All things considered, Swanson is a core play on the main slate.
It may not seem like the Indians are in a good spot tonight as Brad Keller enters with a shiny 1.93 ERA but the underlying numbers tell a different story. First of all, he is operating with a very unsustainable .230 BABIP and enters with a 1.50 WHIP and 4.82 xFIP against left-handed bats. That is where the switch-hitting Lindor will be on Monday and he also enters red-hot with hits in 13 of his last 16 games with eight multi-hit efforts. He is not only my top shortstop but one of my top overall bats on the main slate, especially on FanDuel at $3,400.
With just three games on the early slate, not every player is going to check all the boxes and that is the case with McNeil today. The one concern is the matchup as the ex Mets pitcher, Zack Wheeler, has been good in 2020(2.20 ERA) but does have some room for regression(3.79 xFIP). I am more looking for value on this slate at a tough position and McNeil also comes in red-hot with hits in eight of his last nine games including a whopping seven doubles. At these prices, i am willing to take a shot even in a tough matchup so I can get exposure to the Twins and Braves.
Third base doesn't get much better on the main slate, at least in terms of mining for value. At the top, we have two elite options and I am slightly siding with Machado for a couple of reasons starting with the consistency. He comes into tonight with an elite .306/.370/.594 slash line and has tallied hit sin 15 of his last 17 games including 12 multi-hit efforts. He and Ttatis are arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league and both are elite plays on a daily basis.
The Blue Jays offense has averaged 4.69 runs per game on the season and can add to that on Monday in another plus spot. As expected, their 2020 home park in Buffalo is a hitters paradise as it ranks third in runs and second in home runs but even outside of that the Jays have a Top 5 wRC+(126) at home which is park-adjusted.
The Jays outfield will be a one short tonight with Teoscar injured but they are still a top target against Jordan Montgomery who has been good, not great overall and the difference is the huge struggles vs. righties(.394 wOBA,/.603 SLG). For cash, I lean Gurriel who has been very consistent lately with hits in seven of his last eight games with four multi-hit efforts and seven extra-base hits. Grichuk has more upside against southpaws as he enters tonight with a .44 wOBA, 186 wRC+, and .348 ISO in the split this season.
If we plan to jam in a top pitcher tonight, we are going to need some value and that is exactly what Robles offers. Normally, we would never consider him as the Nats have hit him 9th in the order pretty much all season. Well that changed late last week when they moved him up into the leadoff role and he has quickly delivered with two three-hit games. The price is what drives this pick as a boost to the leadoff spot puts him in elite PTS/$ territory, even in a tougher matchup vs. Charlie Morton and the Rays.