Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday 9/8/20

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Heat Heat (-3.5) vs. Bucks Bucks (+3.5)

The Bucks pulled off a surprise win on Sunday after Giannis went down with a sprained ankle early in the second quarter. The rest of the troops rallied to pull it out in overtime to avoid the sweep. You have to hand it to them for playing tough and keeping the series alive for another day.

Of course, most of this short slate comes down to the Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD $10600 DK $11100) health. If he plays and is given the all-clear I think you could consider playing him. He put up almost 30 FanDuel points in just 11 minutes in game four and was well on his way to crushing value before the ankle thing.

That being said, if he doesn’t play then we are looking at stacking the rest of the crew. Khris Middleton (FD $8000 DK $8600) would be a near 100% play if Giannis sits. The former took over the game on Sunday, dropping 36 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in 48 minutes, leading the team with 28 shots.

Eric Bledsoe (FD $5200 DK $6200) has been a play regardless and played 35 minutes in regulation last time out. He struggled from beyond the arc, going 0-6 from three and finished with only 14 points but did chip in 10 rebounds and six assists.

And finally, Donte Divincenzo (FD $4500 DK $3500) would probably join the starting lineup seeing as how he and George Hill (FD $4800 DK $4400) picked up almost all of the non-Gianni minutes. Both would be excellent value plays on this slate. Like I said, we will likely be sweating this news right up until lock as he’s trending towards a true game-time decision.

On the Heat side, Bam Adebayo (FD $8500 DK $8700) has had a fantastic series, averaging 38 minutes a game with 18 points, 14 rebounds and five assists per game. The price is still coming up, but at a weaker PF position (with Anthony Davis now a C) he is a very safe play.

With Giannis off the court, the Heat were able to play Duncan Robinson (FD $5300 DK $4700) more minutes and that would probably be the case again if ABC sat. Just something to keep an eye on because Robinson rolled 34 in regulation and dropped 20 points.

Lakers Lakers (-5) vs. Rockets Rockets (+5)

The Lakers evened the series 1-1 on Sunday with a fairly definitive 12 point victory that saw them pull away in the fourth quarter. The tandem of LeBron James (FD $11100 DK $11200) and Anthony Davis (FD $11400 DK $10600) are very tough to fade here with the Giannis status up in the air. Both were fantastic in game two with Davis dominating for 34 points and and 10 rebounds. He didn’t have the same defensive stats as game one, but the threat of piling on blocks and steals is always on the table.

Meanwhile, Lebron dropped a near triple-double with 28 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists. He also piled on the defensive stats with four steals and two blocks. In close games, both should trend towards 40 minutes and should be the chalk.

The value “surprise” was Rajon Rondo (FD $6200 DK $3900) who played 29 minutes off the bench and was a ridiculous +28. He scored 10 points, dropped nine assists and added on five steals. Even with a price tick up, he still should see a lot of ownership.

I’m not trusting Markieff Morris (FD $4400 DK $3500) scoring 16 points again and the 4-5 from three is nothing but an outlier though 23 minutes at these prices isn’t the end of the world.

On the Rockets’ side, I’m not paying up for Harden if it comes at the price of losing either Lebron or Davis. So that leaves us hunting around some of the bigger minutes’ guys around the edges. That’s P.J. Tucker (FD $5600 DK $4900) and Robert Covington (FD $6700 DK $6500), the former putting up an out-of-character 18 points and 11 rebounds in game two. That isn’t likely to repeat, but because of the defensive assignment on AD you can expect him once again to play a ton.

The same is true of Covington who got up only three shots in the first game but bounced back in game two with 17 points on 5-10 shooting.




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