Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/9/20
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We get three pitchers at the top of the pricing tonight that have been absolutely dealing this season and somehow the former Cy Young winner is the cheapest of the three on DraftKings. He sits right at the top of the raw points and PTS/$ projections tonight as the Dodgers are -260 favorites against a Diamondbacks team that ranks 28th in both wOBA(.292) and wRC+(79) overall and have just a 61 wRC+ against lefties this season. I will have a ton of exposure to Kershaw in all formats.
Going with two top pitchers on DraftKings is tough tonight as any combo of the three puts us over $20K and greatly lowers the expected output of our bats. Combine that with a pretty terrible mid-tier and that brings me to rookie Dane Dunning who is making his fourth career start. He has yet to get too deep into the game hitting a season-high 88 pitches last time out but has impressed with a 3.86 ERA and even better 3.12 xFIP and has also flashed his upside with a 30.5% K rate and godly 17.5% swinging strike rate through three starts. At these prices, he is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings and is also a salary saving GPP option on FanDuel to load up on bats.
Also Consider: Yu Darvish(CHC) who is having a Cy Young type season with an elite 1.44 ERA(2nd behind Bieber), 2.60 xFIP, and 33% K rate. He now faces a Reds team that has struck out 27% of the time over the last 14 days.
After the top three pitchers, tonight things really fall off the table and that is good news if you are a fan of offense as five teams currently have an implied run projection north of five. The A's are one of those teams and while they have struggled as a whole lately they are still a Top 10 offense on the season. They will face a rookie pitcher in Luis Garcia who made the jump from A ball to the Majors this season so I am not expecting him to go deep into the game and that plays even more into the hands of the A's as the Astros have a bottom 10 bullpen on the season and has been even worse lately with a 6.28 ERA over the last week.
Murphy got Tuesday off so should be well-rested and comes in with a three-game hitting streak with home runs in back to back games. He hits down in the lineup but the price is right(come on down) and saves us salary to pay up at other positions. What Matt Olson lacks in consistency(.191 average) he more than makes up for with power and run production as he entered Tuesday with 10 home runs, 26 RBI, and 21 runs scored. I will take that upside tonight in a game where the A's should get on the board early and often.
On the other side of the diamond, we have a player in Yuli Gurriel who has seen a huge price drop lately after sitting in the high $4K range on DK and mid $3K range on FD. I am not going to say he is having a terrific season(.273/.321/.467 slash line) but one area he does stand out is against lefties as he has tallied a .471 wOBA and 207 wRC+ in the split over 38 at-bats. This game has the potential to be the highest-scoring on the slate and all things considered, Gurriel is one of my top PTS/$ plays overall.
Let's head back to Oakland at second base and talk about Tommy La Stella who the A's picked up at the trade deadline to solidify the top of the order for their playoff run. He went hitless in his first two games with the team but has come on strong and enters tonight with a four-game hitting streak including two multi-hit efforts. While his value on FanDuel is much higher in the mid $2K range, La Stella is in play on both sites tonight.
Andrés Giménez FD - 2B 2100 DK - SS 3000
Opponent - BAL (Thomas Eshelman) Park - NYM
FD - 6.8 DK - 5.23
As you can probably tell, second base is where I will be locking in a value play and Gimenez comes to us at near min prices on both sites. He has seemingly taken over the second base job from Amed Rosario thanks to his bat which has produced hits in five straight games including three multi-hit efforts. At these prices, we don't need a lot for him to hit value, and most of all the salary relief allows us to pay up for an elite pitcher without completely sacrificing the bats.
Correa is the first name that jumps off the page at the shortstop position and mainly because of his price in relation to the top 5 who are all over $5K on DraftKings now. If you can find the salary relief, they are all elite options but for cash games, I am likely turning to the mid-tier and Correa is at the top of that list. He isn't having his best year but he has been consistent hitting .289 with a 115 wRC+ and has been even better vs. lefties with a .394 wOBA, 155 wRC+, and 47% hard contact rate. He is in play in all formats.
José Iglesias FD 2600 DK 4400
Opponent - NYM (Rick Porcello) Park - NYM
FD - 9.36 DK - 7.08
Despite not having a superstar or even really one player that a casual fan could name, the Orioles have fielded an above-average offense this season with a very balanced attack. Iglesias is on his third team in three seasons but having a career-year thus far as he enters tonight with a 13-game hitting streak pushing his slash line up to an incredible .396/.416/.531 for the season. He is in play on both sites but his best value easily comes on FanDuel in the mid $2K range.
We have come this far without hearing about the Padres and it has more to do with price than anything else. I have mentioned a ton of value plays tonight to give us salary relief so fitting Machado or Tatis might be the way to go tonight even with the sky-high price tags. At least we know what we are going to get as Manny enters tonight with multiple hits in 13 of his last 20 games and both he and Tatis sit top 5 in runs batted in this season.
Still want to go the value route and pay up elsewhere? Jeff McNeil is once again on my radar as a value play and while he won't throw up a monster game very often and win you a GPP, he is very consistent and won't kill you either. He comes in with hits in 11 of his last 12 games pushing his average over .300 on the season to go with a .378 OBP and 131 wRC+. A top value at the position and safe in all formats.
The outfield is pretty much the same story as third and short with some elite player(Bellinger, Betts, Trout, Acuna) at the top which are hard to build around with their enormous price tags. While Springer is not quite on the same level as these guys in terms of point projections, he is right there when looking at PTS/$ value as he comes with a very affordable mid-tier price tag. He is hitting leadoff and has been consistent with hits in eight straight. He is trending up and his price soon will be as well so jump on board now as it is still a bit of a buy-low situation.
AJ Pollock FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - ARI (Taylor Clarke) Park - ARI
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.19
While the article lacks Dodgers' bats, I assure you we are high on them again tonight. Pollock comes in the mid-tier and that price generally sticks there as he bounces around the lineup. The Dodgers are in a great spot tonight and lead all teams in implied runs so I am not too concerned where he hits tonight but hitting up in the three-hole would increase his overall upside. He comes in with hits in eight of his last 10 games and is in play in all formats.