Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 9/20/20
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This is going to be the only normal Sunday slate left. In fact, we have just one Sunday remaining in the year but it is the dreaded final day of the regular season. Things should remain relatively normal for this one though and that's all we can ask for as DFS players. With that in mind, let's get to our favorite pitchers of the slate.
A 2-4 record doesn't necessarily look very good but a 3.27 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 rate is pretty much what we expect from Cookie Carrasco. He's actually been even better over recent years, amassing a 3.43 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 30 percent K rate since 2015. The best part about using him today is this matchup though, facing a Detroit team who owns the worst K rate in the Majors while sitting 25th in OBP and 23rd in runs scored. That's why he and the Indians enter this matchup as a -200 favorite, with the Tigers projected for less than four runs.
This is honestly some of the worst pricing I've seen all season. I expected to see Uequidy in the $8,000s on both sites but he remains way too cheap. I say that because he has a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in three starts this season. That stellar form carries over from last year too, with Urquidy allowing one run or fewer in six of his final seven starts last season. All of that doesn't even take into consideration this superb matchup, facing a Diamondbacks club that ranks 28th in both runs scored and OBP while sitting 29th in wOBA. It has Urquidy and the Astros entering this matchup as a -210 favorite.
We also think Max Scherzer could roll over Miami in Marlins Park, and he's an obvious big money option as usual.
Freeman is the hottest player in baseball and he's going to remain in these articles until he cools off. Over the last 14 games, FF has a .463 AVG, .561 OBP, .963 SLG and 1.524 OPS. That's absurd enough but he actually has a .538 OBP and 1.329 OPS dating all the way back to August 17. It's hard to fathom how special those numbers are and we absolutely love that he gets to face a crappy righty here. Not only does Freeman have a 1.254 OPS against righties this season, Porcello also has a 6.06 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in yet another disappointing year of his own.
Smith is first base eligible on DraftKings and I really wanted to get him in here. The biggest reason we like him today is that he gets the platoon advantage against Kyle Wright. The Braves righty has a 7.20 ERA and 2.08 WHIP this season and will surely struggle with a stud like Smith. The powerful big man is hitting .331 this season and now has a .640 SLG and 1.055 OPS. In addition, his OBP is just shy of .400 against righties, en route to a 1.088 OPS.
José Altuve FD - 2B 3100 DK - 2B 4200
Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - HOU
FD - 13.65 DK - 10.45
Altuve's numbers are downright dreadful this season but it's lowered his price to some prices that we can't overlook. We're still talking about a guy who's hitting over .320 since 2015, providing an OPS north of .850 in that span too. That means there are some good numbers right around the corner and a matchup against a bad lefty is the thing that could get him going. Against southpaws last year, Altuve had a .331 AVG, .677 SLG and 1.057 OPS. All of that is bad news for Madison Bumgarner and we'll discuss his numbers in the next position.
It's always risky to ride an unproven youngster but there are some things we love about Madrigal. The first is that he bat leadoff on Friday. If he does that again here at this price, he's really tough to fade atop one of the best lineups in baseball. It's no surprise they did that when you see his minor league numbers, providing a .311 AVG, .377 OBP and 35 steals in the minors last year. We love those sorts of numbers in a bullpen game, especially from someone prices so affordably.
We foreshadowed why we want to stack against Bumgarner in the Altuve write-up, so, let's go ahead and get into it. The former Cy Young winner has seen his velocity drop over recent years and it's led to him getting pounded this season. In fact, MadBum now has an 8.53 ERA and 1.74 WHIP for the season and simply doesn't look right. That's awesome for all of these Houston righties, with Correa owning a .398 OBP against lefties since 2018.
Adames should be in the heart of the order here, batting third against a lefty earlier this week. The reason the Rays did that is because of his splits, totaling a .396 OBP and .872 OPS against southpaws this season. That makes these price tags hard to understand and it's certainly not a southpaw we're worried about. John Means currently owns a 5.63 ERA this season and will likely struggle with this potent lineup.
If the Astros are going to be our favorite stack of the day, we have to love their best hitter. Bregman is certainly that, attaining a .404 OBP and .954 OPS since 2018. His numbers against lefties are even more ridiculous, owning a .335 AVG, .426 OBP, .649 SLG and 1.075 OPS against them in that same span. We already discussed how bad Bumgarner has been and this will easily be his toughest out of the bunch.
Out of all the strange pricing that I see on these sites, I just don't understand what they're doing with McNeil. This guy has been nothing but productive throughout his career and he continues to be surrounded by bench warmers in terms of pricing. We're talking about a guy who has a .322 AVG, .388 OBP, .509 SLG and .897 OPS in well over 500 career at-bats. That means he should be $1,000 more on each site and we haven't even discussed that he's facing a pitcher with a WHIP north of 2.00.
These two find their way into these articles a lot and it's no surprise whenever they face a lefty. Let's start with that matchup, facing southpaw Matthew Boyd. While the Tigers lefty definitely has strikeout-upside, his 6.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP has him in line for the worst season of his career.
Those terrible numbers from Boyd make Reyes and Luplow very intriguing. We'll start with Reyes, who has a .304 AVG, .379 OBP, .520 SLG and .899 OPS since August 4. He's also better against lefties but it doesn't compare to Luplow. Since 2018, Luplow has a .396 OBP, .623 SLG and 1.020 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor.
It's hard to get excited about a guy with an average below .200 but this matchup has double-dong written all over it. The reason I say that is because of Gallo's pure power, owning a .504 SLG and .294 ISO for his career. He's obviously been struggling to get things going this season but that raw power is great news against a bad righty like Julio Teheran. Not only is Gallo significantly better against righties, Teheran is also allowing a .343 OBP, .689 SLG and .413 wOBA to lefty bats this season.
While I don't really like this DraftKings price, the FanDuel price is absolutely fantastic. When you have this big of a discrepancy between the two sites, you know that one of them is off. It's surely FanDuel, with Ohtani beasting against right-handers throughout his career. In fact, Ohtani has a .349 OBP, .557 SLG and .907 OPS against righties for his career. We also like that 24 of his 29 career steals come against righties too, only adding to his value. We're also not worried about Kyle Cody and his 1.50 WHIP through 12.2 career innings.
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- Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59): By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons