Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 9/25/20
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While Carrasco is definitely a great pitcher, this is more about facing the Pirates. This offense is downright dreadful, ranked bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS and wOBA. Their .631 OPS is on par with some of the worst hitters in any lineup and it's crazy that they're doing that as a unit. It's not like Carrasco is some bum either, owning a 2.90 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 rate this season. He's actually coming off of his best start of the year too, dropping 64 FanDuel points in seven scoreless innings. That has Cookie and the Indians entering this matchup as a -260 favorite.
This guy really deserves more credit. A 2.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season is impressive on its own but he's actually been better recently. Over his last three starts, Bassitt is pitching to a 0.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 rate. All of that makes him one of the best pitchers in this rotation and it's scary to think that he has a 0.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home this season as well. Getting to face Seattle is the icing on the cake, with the Mariners sitting 24th in runs scored, 23rd in OBP, 28th in OPS and 22nd in K rate. All of that has Bassitt as a -210 favorite in this matchup.
This dude has been in these articles a lot recently and it's easy to understand why when you see his numbers. For the season, he's got a .457 OBP and 1.094 OPS. His averages have been even better recently, totaling a .506 OBP, .736 SLG and 1.242 OPS over his last 33 games played. All of that makes him a top option on pretty much every slate and we love that he gets to face a crappy righty here. That happens to be Chris Mazza, who has a nightmarish 1.72 WHIP and gives the platoon advantage to FF.
Jesús Aguilar FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 3100
Opponent - NYY (J.A. Happ) Park - NYY
FD - 9.69 DK - 7.28
It's usually FanDuel that has the soft pricing but it's hard to understand what DraftKings is thinking here. Not only has Aguilar had a bounce-back season for the Marlins, he also gets the platoon advantage here against J.A. Happ. Since 2018, Jesus has a .356 OBP and .817 OPS against left-handed pitching. That's huge with him amassing a .353 OBP and .811 OPS for the year, batting in the heart of the Miami lineup. Happ isn't really scary either, owning a 3.99 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for his career.
If you're in need of a catcher, Salvador Perez has been raking recently and gets a solid matchup.
LeMahieu and Freeman have been in these articles a ton over recent weeks and D.J. might be the only guy who's as hot as Freeman. Over his last 14 games played, LeMahieu has a .368 BA, .455 OBP, .789 SLG, and 1.244 OPS. Crazily enough, it's not that far off of his .360 AVG and 1.012 OPS for the season. A big reason for the big season is the fact that he gets to hit in Yankee Stadium, generating a .412 AVG, .800 SLG, and 1.268 OPS there.
Derek Dietrich FD - 2B 2500 DK - 1B 3000
Opponent - HOU (Jose Urquidy) Park - TEX
FD - 8.57 DK - 6.43
This is certainly a GPP play, with Dietrich being one of the most volatile hitters in the game. What makes him unpredictable is the fact that he's strictly a platoon player. It's really no surprise when you see that he has a .341 OBP, .444 SLG and .785 OPS against righties since 2018. That's really all you can ask for from someone priced so affordably, especially with DD homering in three of his last four games. Jose Urquidy is the sort of guy who could be due for some negative regression as well, providing a 4.33 xFIP, which is 1.50 runs higher than his ERA.
Torres is just too cheap. While he has been in the midst of a slump for the majority of the season, we're still talking about one of the best young power hitters in baseball. That's evident by his .497 career SLG and .838 OPS. What I really like is that he's been showing us signs of breaking out of it recently, accruing a .419 OBP, .595 SLG and 1.013 OPS over his last 11 games played. We're really not worried about a guy who has a 1.33 career WHIP facing this lineup either.
If you've been reading my articles recently, you knew that Mondesi would be right in his normal spot in the shortstop section. I have a legit man-crush on this guy and he's finally been treating me well recently. Over his last 19 games played, Mondesi is hitting .320, providing 18 runs scored, 14 RBI and 14 steals in that span. That's the fantasy stud we were waiting for the first two months of the season and it's scary just how valuable this guy can be for DFS with his versatility. Getting to face a righty only adds to Mondesi's value with his speed and it's not like Turnbull's career 4.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP makes him someone we need to avoid.
José Ramírez FD - 3B 4100 DK - 3B 5600
Opponent - PIT (Mitch Keller) Park - CLE
FD - 13.71 DK - 10.34
Hot hitters are a major theme in this article and here we are with another. J-Ram's most recent run might cash him an AL MVP award, collecting 13 doubles, 17 homers, 46 RBI, 43 runs scored and 10 steals en route to a .378 OBP, .597 SLG and .975 OPS for the year. A lot of that damage has come recently, with Ramirez generating a .439 OBP and 1.235 OPS over his last 25 games played. All of that makes him really hard to fade against Mitch Keller, who owns a 6.12 ERA and 1.65 WHIP for his career.
It was really difficult to pick a second third baseman, but Bregman is always a reliable option. The reason I say that is because of his .382 carer OBP, .519 SLG and .901 OPS. There are only a handful of players with better averages and it looks even better when you consider that Bregman fell a single shy of the cycle on Friday, collecting two runs and three RBI. The thing that we like the most is that he gets to face an unproven Kyle Cody, who's got 17 innings under his belt and never pitched above Single-A before this season. Houston dropped 14 runs on Thursday and that's really bad news for the inexperienced Cody.
We've been talking about a lot of hot hitters but Soto has been scorching for the whole season. In fact, his season averages now come to a .352 BA, .486 OBP, .703 SLG and 1.189 OPS. Those would be brilliant numbers for a week and it's truly unbelievable that he's been able to maintain those numbers for a full two months now. His numbers the last week are amazing too, collecting a .500 BA, .684 OBP and 1.768 OPS over his last five games played. That's horrific news for Rick Porcello from the right side, who's got his typical 5.46 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.
It's crazy to see Kepler's price this low. While he has been struggling a bit recently, it's easy to understand why when you realize that he's been dealing with an injury. The good news is that he has at least three hits in two of his last three games, homering in both, gaining back some health. That's why he typically bats atop this lineup against righties and we love his .515 SLG and .850 OPS splits against right-handers. Tyler Mahle's 4.69 ERA and 1.39 career WHIP make him a tough sell against this potent Twins lineup too.
We wanted to find someone cheap and Piscotty is a nice fit with all of these aforementioned studs. The thing that really makes him enticing is the fact that he gets to face a lefty, with Piscotty owning a .350 OBP, .525 SLG and .875 OPS against them since the beginning of last season. That alone makes him a nice option and we also don't hate the matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, who's got a 5.93 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season which is pretty much on par with his career numbers.
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- Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59): By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons