DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 9/28/20

The MLB playoffs are here and thigns kick off Tuesday with an AL-only, four-game slate. Let's go through the DraftKings and FanDuel plays.

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Pitchers

Blake Snell FD 8300 DK 7800
Opponent - TOR (Hyun-Jin Ryu) Park - TOR
FD - 37.91 DK - 20.73
Snell enters the first day of the playoffs as the best money line favorite on the shorter slate. He was excellent in his 11 starts this season, striking out more than 11 batters per nine and keeping the xFIP at 3.06. There are still a few more walks than you like to see, but he’s a positive bargain on FanDuel as the sixth most expensive pitcher on the slate. The Blue Jays strike out 24% of the time against lefties this season though they did have a solid OPS in that split. That being said, with playoff teams we are looking for any edge because all of the matchups are rough. This is a good spot for Snell.

Shane Bieber FD 11200 DK 9000
Opponent - NYY (Gerrit Cole) Park - NYY
FD - 46.37 DK - 25.81
Bieber is second on this list only because of the price. Because every other number has been out of this world for the Indians’ ace this season. He led baseball in pitcher WAR, struck out more than 14 batters per inning and sported a 2.04 xFIP. Even when batters made contact (which wasn’t often) he induced a nearly 50% ground ball rate. Yes I get this is a terrible matchup against an excellent Yankees offense that finished 5th in team wOBA even with all of their injuries. But Bieber is also just the best pitcher in baseball right now and that’s always going to be a tough fade.

Catcher/First Base

Yasmani Grandal FD 2900 DK 4300
Opponent - OAK (Jesus Luzardo) Park - OAK
FD - 9.72 DK - 7.21
Eloy Jiménez FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - OAK (Jesus Luzardo) Park - OAK
FD - 9.71 DK - 7.39
It isn’t much, but the White Sox open with the third-highest implied run line on the slate against the lefty Luzardo. While a platoon neutral switch hitter for his career, Grandal was significantly better against lefties this season with a .905 OPS in around 40 plate appearances (I know, I know small sample size). But he should hit in the middle of the order and is reasonably priced on both sites.

Meanwhile, Jimenez is a reverse splits guy, better against righties, but the numbers against southpaws for his short career are fine with a .801 OPS and .336 wOBA. He moves down the order a little with the White Sox fully healthy, but is still a value on this slate.

Miguel Sanó FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - HOU (Zack Greinke) Park - HOU
FD - 9.72 DK - 7.18
With Sano you are getting a two-true-outcome guy through and through. He struck out a whopping 44% of the time this season, but also cranked 13 home runs in his 200 plate appearances. Greinke has solid control and did tick up the K’s this season, but the Twins have the second-highest implied run line on this slate and Sano is coming cheap on both sites.

Strongly consider Nate Lowe (FD $2700 DK $3500) if he’s hitting in the middle of the Rays’ order.

Second Base

Brandon Lowe FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - TOR (Matt Shoemaker) Park - TOR
FD - 10.44 DK - 7.89
We could see the lefty Lowe hit in the two-hole for the Rays on Tuesday. They get easily the best pitching matchup of the slate against Matt Shoemaker who was solid if unspectacular this season. Lowe has an elite 11% walk rate and finished the season with a fantastic .916 OPS. He knocked 14 home runs, reduced his K rate season-over-season and was just excellent. He’s expensive for sure, but the Rays have the best implied run line on this slate and we are going to want to stack their bats.

Honestly, after Lowe it’s a pretty big drop-off at the position. You can take some savings on Joey Wendle (FD $2700 DK $3900) hitting maybe at the bottom of the order. But that would simply be a cost-saving measure.

Otherwise you might be looking at guys like Cesar Hernández (FD $2800 DK $4400) or Cavan Biggio (FD $3600 DK $5000) hitting at (or around) the top of their respective lineups. But the matchups are pretty brutal for both.

Shortstop

Tim Anderson FD 3800 DK 5100
Opponent - OAK (Jesús Luzardo) Park - OAK
FD - 10.22 DK - 7.96
Anderson is getting up there in price, but he’s one of the few shortstops hitting at the top of his team’s lineup and the matchup is fine here. He’s put together solid back-to-back seasons living on a lot of contact (he rarely walks) and using BABIP to his advantage with the speed. He’s also been way better against lefties for his career with an .869 OPS, .366 wOBA and 133 wRC+ in that split. It all points to him as a good cash play here against Luzardo even if we are paying a premium.

Willy Adames FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - TOR (Matt Shoemaker) Park - TOR
FD - 8.59 DK - 6.59
We get a little savings with Adames here and he should hit around the 5-6 spot in the Rays’ order. He’s a solid bat, sporting a career-best .813 OPS this season even though he spiked the K rate up to 36%. As a switch-hitter he’s been much better against righties for his career with the .795 OPS more than a 100 points better than what he’s done against lefties. And again, the strikeouts become less of a thing comparatively on this slate getting to face Shoemaker.

Third Base

Yoshitomo Tsutsugo FD 2700 DK 3700
Opponent - TOR (Matt Shoemaker) Park - TOR
FD - 10.88 DK - 8.14
I’m really hoping we see Tsutsugo in the leadoff slot against Shoemaker because he’d make for one of the best values on the entire slate. He’s coming very cheap on both sites. In his first season in the majors after coming over from Japan, Tsutsugo showed a lot of patience, walking 14% of the time. There was a little power with eight home runs in his first 185 plate appearances and some chance he ran bad with a .230 BABIP. Watch for the Rays’ lineup and if he’s at the top then this is a lock cash game play for the price.

Josh Donaldson FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - HOU (Zack Greinke) Park - HOU
FD - 10.61 DK - 7.87
Donaldson should be back in the lineup to start the series against Houston after sitting out the final two games of the season with calf cramping. Injuries plagued his season and he ended up playing only 28 games in his first season as a Twin. The low-.800s OPS was fine with some of the drop off coming from a BABIP more than 60 points lower than his career average. He even ticked up the walk rate this season. If he’s back in the middle of the order then we can trot him out in cash games.

Outfield

Randy Arozarena FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - TOR (Matt Shoemaker) Park - TOR
FD - 9.78 DK - 7.5
Kevin Kiermaier FD 2600 DK 3000
Opponent - TOR (Matt Shoemaker) Park - TOR
FD - 8.6 DK - 6.61
Arozarena was a revelation for the Rays this season, coming up to not much fanfare (he was a decent, not amazing prospect) and promptly just went nuts in his first 76 major league plate appearances. He cracked seven home runs and finished with a 1.023 OPS. The 47% Hr/FB rate definitely isn’t sustainable, but that’s fine considering the prices on both sites aren’t all that reflective of what he can do even with some regression coming on the power numbers. He should hit second or third in the lineup to start this series.

Kiermaier is probably looking at a bottom of the lineup gig, but the price will help you fit a guy like Bieber if you want to roll that way in cash. This is a guy who walked almost 13% of the time this season even if the OPS did finish sub-.700. A punt play and nothing more.

Max Kepler FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - HOU (Zack Greinke) Park - HOU
FD - 9.94 DK - 7.45
We’re definitely looking at Rays/ Twins stacks to open things up on this opening playoff slate. Kepler failed to repeat his breakout 2019 season in which he rocked a mid-.800’s OPS with 36 home runs. The power was a little run hot, but he did crack nine home runs in fewer than 200 plate appearances this season. He still shows patience with an 11% walk rate and is very difficult to strike out at only 18%. The BABIP will probably always be an issue which keeps the OPS down despite solid batted ball numbers, but he’s projected to hit leadoff against Greinke and for this slate that’s a good spot.

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