DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/30/20

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Pitchers

Walker Buehler FD - P 10000 DK - SP 8800
Opponent - MIL (Undecided) Park - LAD
FD - 38.03 DK - 20.78

Buehler was limited in his last start of the regular season after returning from a blister issue but looked terrific holding the A's to just one hit over four innings while striking out six. He will get the start in game one for the Dodgers and is not only coming cheap(relative to what he cost all season) but gets arguably the best matchup on the slate. The Brewers limped into the playoffs losing five of their final eight games and are one of two teams in the playoffs with a sub .500 record. On top of that, they struck out a whopping 26% of the time this season, 27% against right-handed pitching. Buehler is my top pitcher on Wednesday in all formats.

Hyun-Jin Ryu FD - P 8300 DK - SP 8100
Opponent - TB (Tyler Glasnow) Park - TB
FD - 34.34 DK - 17.95

From a PTS/$ perspective, Ryu is right at the top of the ranks on both sites which is impressive as the jays are slight underdogs on Wednesday. For me, it comes down to the fact he is cheaper than Glasgow in this game and was arguably better in every area this season. He held opponents to two or fewer runs in nine of his 12 starts for a very impressive 2.69 ERA backed up by a 3.32 xFIP. He didn't flash the same upside as Glasgow in the strikeout department but the good news is that the Rays have struck out 30% of the time over the last two weeks and 28.5% of the time vs. lefties on the season. All things considered, I am expecting another low scoring game which has Ryu sitting as my favorite SP2 today.

Catcher/First Base

Anthony Rizzo FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 4400
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - CHC
FD - 12.27 DK - 9.2
Jesús Aguilar FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B 2900
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - CHC
FD - 8.64 DK - 6.49

This game presents a bit of an opportunity and the Cubs currently sit second behind the Dodgers in implied runs so I will start with Rizzo. The first thing that stands out here is the price on DraftKings as he is the 10th most expensive option today and despite a down season overall, he finished strong over the last couple of weeks posting a .393 wOBA and 147 wRC+. He faces Sandy Alcantara who was good(not great) this season but really stands out is that he struggled against lefties with a 1.67 WHIP while giving up a .369 wOBA. Rizzo is my top player at first on this slate.

If we want to spend up on both pitchers and go the value route with bats, Aguilar is one name that pops up right away with a sub $3K price tag on both sites. He has been batting 3rd in the Marlins lineup and had a productive season with a .277/.352/.457 slash line with eight home runs, 34 RBI, and 31 runs scored. Like Rizzo, the matchup also has an upside as Hendricks was much worse against righties who hit .274 against him(lefties hit .204).

Second Base

Luis Arraez FD - 2B 2300 DK - 2B 4900
Opponent - HOU (Jose Urquidy) Park - MIN
FD - 7.51 DK - 5.9

Arraez went 0 for 3 in game one yesterday but I am right back on him today for a couple of reasons starting with the fact he is hitting leadoff for the Twins which presents a ton of run-scoring opportunities. He had a very solid season overall hitting .321 and had six hits in eight at-bats in his final two games of the season after returning from injury. I see the Twins tieing this series on Wednesday on the back of their potent offense which puts Arraez in play for me in all formats.

Cesar Hernández FD - 2B 2900 DK - 2B 4100
Opponent - NYY (Masahiro Tanaka) Park - CLE
FD - 11.2 DK - 8.66

On FanDuel, I think Arraez is easily the play at his price but a case can be made on DraftKings for Hernandez who is $800 cheaper. Even in a tougher matchup vs. Tanaka it is hard to ignore Hernandez who has occupied the two-hole for the Indians down the stretch and been at the top of the lineup all season. More good news here as Tanaka wasn't exactly sharp down the stretch giving up 15 hits and eight runs(five earned) over his final two starts and gave up at least one home run in five straight and seven of his final eight starts. All things considered, Hernandez is in play in all formats with his best value coming on DraftKings.

Shortstop

Fernando Tatis Jr. FD - SS 4300 DK - SS 5300
Opponent - STL (Kwang Hyun Kim) Park - SD
FD - 15.67 DK - 11.94

Tatis put up MVP-like numbers in the regular season helping the Padres reach the post-season for the first time since 2006. He contributed in all areas with 17 home runs, 45 RBI, 50 runs scored, and also added 11 stolen bases to go with some elite defending. The Padres get game one matchup against MLB rookie Kwang Hyun Kim who didn't quite pitch as well as the ERA(1.62) showed as the xFIP(4.62) was nearly three runs lower while he operated an unsustainable .217 BABIP. This will most definitely be his biggest test and I see the Padres coming out on top with Tatis an elite play and my favorite pay-up on this slate.

Chris Taylor FD - SS 3100 DK - 2B/OF 4500
Opponent - MIL (Brent Suter) Park - LAD
FD - 9.41 DK - 7.16

The Dodgers posted the best record in baseball as they led the league in both pitching and hitting. The offense averaged just over 5.8 runs per game thanks to one of the deepest lineups around and I will be touching on that depth here. Chris Taylor is likely a Top 4-5 hitter on almost any other team and despite hitting 7-8 for the Dodgers was very productive with a .364 wOBA and 132 wRC+. There is risk with every shortstop today so I will lean on Taylor as I feel the Dodgers put up runs in bunches tonight.

Third Base

Justin Turner FD - 3B 3000 DK - 3B 4800
Opponent - MIL (Brent Suter) Park - LAD
FD - 12.36 DK - 9.34

Turner was limited to just 42 of the Dodgers 60 games this season and while the home runs(4) were hard to come by, he still had a solid season. He finished the season hitting .307 with a very impressive .376 wOBA ad 140 wRC+. Best of all, he hits third in the very potent Dodgers lineup that is projected to steamroll the Brewers in the first round. Lock and load in all formats.

Brian Anderson FD - 3B 2800 DK - 3B 3600
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - CHC
FD - 8.1 DK - 6.17

Call me crazy but I am a believer in the Marlins and always love a good underdog story. Anderson isn't going to stand out in the projections with his .255 average but provides a ton of power upside(11 home runs and a .210 ISO) at a very cheap price. Like I mentioned with Aguilar above, Hendricks also struggles more against right-handed bats. If playing top pitching and still want some big bats in your lineup you are going to need a value team and the Marlins are that team for me today.

Outfield

AJ Pollock FD - OF 3100 DK - OF 4500
Opponent - MIL (Brent Suter) Park - LAD
FD - 10.62 DK - 8.06

The Dodgers outfield is loaded and if you have the money Betts is a great option in the leadoff spot but is also the most expensive bat on the slate. For cash games, I love turning to AJ Pollock who had an odd but very productive season. While the OBP dipped to a career-low .314 he still posted a very nice .364 wOBA and 132 wRC+ thanks to the run production as he tallied 16 home runs and 34 RBI in just 55 games. He is in play in all formats and I love stacking with Taylor for a mid to bottom of the order stack on the highest projected scoring team on the slate.

Mark Canha FD - OF 2800 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - OAK
FD - 9.39 DK - 7.04

The A's offense was held in check in game one and will need a bounce back from some key players if they want to extend their playoff lives. One of the key players for them today against Dallas Kuechel will be Mark Canha who not only hits cleanup but led the A's in hitting against lefties this season posting a very impressive .423 wOBA and 176 wRC+. The price is right on both sites putting Canha in my player pool in all formats today.

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