Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

    Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.

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    The PGA Tour fall season continues this week with a trip to Las Vegas and TPC Southwind for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. It will also be the first of two Las Vegas events as the CJ Cup was moved to Shadow Creek Golf Course for this season.

    Outside of the U.S. Open, this is arguably the best field we have seen since the new season began as there are three golfers inside the Top 10(Morikawa, Bryson, Webb) and 22 of the Top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

    As we have seen in the past, this event produces some very low scores when the weather cooperates and that appears to be the case again this year. For my DFS model, I will be heavy on form, specifically in the iron game combined with birdies. Before getting into picks, let's look at the scorecard, past results, and my stats model.

    The Course

    TPC Southwind
    Par 71 - 7,255 Yards
    Greens - Bentgrass

    **Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

    Previous Five Winners

    • 2019 - Kevin Na(-23)
    • 2018 - Bryson DeChambeau(-21)
    • 2017 - Patrick Cantlay(-9)
    • 2016 - Rod Pampling(-20)
    • 2015 - Smylie Kaufman(-16)

    Top Stats in the Model

    • Strokes Gained: Approach 
    • Birdie or Better %
    • Par 4 Scoring
    • Par 5 Birdie or Better %
    • Putting Performance on Bentgrass Greens

    With the wind projected to be fairly calm again this year, this will most definitely be a second-shot golf course so Strokes Gained: Approach is at the top of my list of stats this week. Right behind it and highly correlated is Birdie or Better % as the winning score is likely in the -15 to -20 range this week with a cutline in the -2 to -3 range. As a Par 71, the course has one more Par 4, and over 50% of all bridies came from them over the past two years so. The Par 5's are also important this week as the three of them play as the easiest three holes on the course and there were 200+ birdies on each of them last year with a combined 53 eagles. Finally, I will also look at putting splits on Bentgrass greens.

    With all that in mind, let's dig into the picks.

    Top Tier Targets

    Matthew Wolff
    World Golf Ranking (#18)
    Vegas Odds (26/1)
    Draftkings ($9,600)
    FanDuel ($11,100)

    While I am not surprised to see Wolff in the top tier of salary, I was a little shocked when I realized this was his highest price on DraftKings since the last John Deere Classic two years ago. I believe this is going to be the new normal for him as his game just keeps trending upwards. Since the return of golf in June, he ranks(in this field) 1st in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 9th in par 4 Scoring, and 3rd in Birdie or Better. He is coming off a fantastic runner-up performance at the US Open and is primed for a second career win and it could come as early as this week. Lock and load in all formats.

    Hideki Matsuyama
    World Golf Ranking (#19)
    Vegas Odds (21/1)
    Draftkings ($9,900)
    FanDuel ($11,300)

    I think we see some high ownerships with Bryson and Webb at the top of the salary but as of now, I am personally liking a more balanced approach. Like Wolff, Hideki comes in under $10K on DraftKings and is trending in the right direction in almost all areas. He comes into this week with Top 30 finishes in six straight and eight of his last nine events and ranks 4th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and Proximity since the return of golf in June. The winning upside almost always comes down to his putter and even a field average effort should be enough for him to hit value.

    Mid Tier Targets

    Cameron Davis
    World Golf Ranking (#190)
    Vegas Odds (67/1)
    Draftkings ($8,200)
    FanDuel ($9,900)

    A lot of fantasy golf and golf betting is riding a player who is hot and getting out all returns possible in that window. That is what I will continue to do with Davis who has been very consistent for the price lately coming in with five straight finishes of T36 or better including a T6 last week. The all-around game is what has driven the consistency as he has gained strokes in all four strokes gained categories in two of the last four events and gained strokes in at least three in three of those four events. The price only went up $100 DraftKings this week and actually went down on FanDuel making him a core play for me in all formats once again.

    Denny McCarthy
    World Golf Ranking (#182)
    Vegas Odds (81/1)
    Draftkings ($7,700)
    FanDuel ($9,200)

    Right before and after the COVID break, McCarthy's game was in bad shape as missed cuts in four of five events with the other finish a T66. Since then, things have slowly improved as he has made seven of eight cuts including two Top 10's, one of which came last week(T6) at the Sanderson Farms Championship and he now returns to TPC Southwind where he has finished T15 and T6 in his last two trips. All things considered, he is a core play for me in all formats for DFS and I like a Top 20 bet, as well.

    Value Targets

    Tyler McCumber
    World Golf Ranking (#265)
    Vegas Odds (161/1)
    Draftkings ($6,500)
    FanDuel ($8,000)

    The theme of this article has been current form and while this one is a very limited sample size, it does stand. After missing seven cuts in his last eight events, McCumber has caught fire with a 2nd at Corales and T6 at Sanderson Farms firing sub-70 scores in six of those eight rounds with a whopping 38 birdies. There is most definitely risk here but at these prices, I am willing to take that risk in my stars and scrubs or top-heavy balanced lineups.





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