Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Zozo Championship

    Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players, and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.

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    For the second straight week, we have a re-scheduled event due to COVID-19 as the Zozo Championship moves from Japan to the Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, California. Like the CJ Cup, this will also be another no-cut event with a loaded field with eight of the Top 10 and 37 of the Top 50 players in the World teeing it up this week. This includes defending Zozo Champ Tiger Woods who makes his first start since a missed cut at the U.S. Open. Don't let that hold you back from the GOAT, however, as he returns to the venue of his Hero World Challenge event hosted from 2000-2013 in which Tiger won five times and finished runner-up five other times.

    The course is Sherwood Country Club and while it appears to be a very short(7,073 Yards) Par 72, the Jack Nicklaus design challenges golfers to be "on" in every facet of their game if they are wanting to win here. It is also a little quirky as there are five Par 3's and five Par 5's and while you would think the scoring would be low, Tiger had an average score of just 68.5 here over 12 events. That is mostly due to the dangers around every corner with water coming to play on eight holes, well-positioned bunkering, doglegs that force positioning off the tee, and fast, challenging Bentgrass greens. Even the Par 5's present a big challenge if going for it in two as the greens are very protected. Overall, this is a risk-reward-type course which will have a lot of golfers playing more conservative off the tee as accuracy will be important and then it comes down to those mid-long irons and of course putting on fast, bentgrass greens.

    The Course

    Sherwood Country Club
    Par 72 - 7,073 Yards
    Greens - Bentgrass

    **Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

    Top Stats in the Model

    • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee with a bump to Accuracy - Lots of dangers off the tee putting hitting the fairway at a premium
    • Stroke Gained: Approach - With golfers going with some "less than driver" off the tee, I will also be looking at some fairway proximity
    • Par 5 Scoring - One extra Par 5 here which can be a big advantage for those who excel on them
    • Birdie Or Better % - While this most likely won't be a shootout, birdies correlate very highly with fantasy scoring

    Top Tier Targets

    Justin Thomas
    World Golf Ranking (#3)
    Vegas Odds (12/1)
    Draftkings ($10,600)
    FanDuel ($11,800)

    JT took over the top spot in my player pool rankings last week when DJ withdrew. He was in contention going into the final round last week before making six bogeys and losing 1.9 strokes tee to green and another 1.2 putting. Overall, he gained 4.3 strokes balls striking and like I mention frequently, JT has been straight fire at no-cut events with six wins, 14 Top 10's and is the only golfer averaging over 100 DK points at no-cut events(going back to start of 2017-18 season). He is my top DFS play on DraftKings coming at a bit of a discount from Xander.

    Webb Simpson
    World Golf Ranking (#8)
    Vegas Odds (17/1)
    Draftkings ($9,700)
    FanDuel ($11,300)

    Webb sits #3 in my model this week behind Xander and JT but is #1 from a PTS/$ standpoint coming in under $10K on DraftKings this week. He has been very good since the return of golf with a win at the RBC Heritage and has finished 13th or better in eight of 11 events. Statistically, what stands out the most for this week is his ability to hit the fairways(9th in field since return), hit greens(22nd in SG: APP), and he is also elite around the green(5th) and on the green(8th in SG: Putting). He fits this course, comes at a value under $10K, and will be one of my core plays in all formats.

    Mid Tier Targets

    Harris English
    World Golf Ranking (#34)
    Vegas Odds (34/1)
    Draftkings ($8,800)
    FanDuel ($9,800)

    Despite an ugly opening-round 75 last week at the CJ Cup, English battled back for a Top 10 finish and was also 9th in DraftKings scoring. Like Webb, he has also been very consistent since the return of golf back in June with nine Top 25 and three Top 10 finishes in 12 events. Looking at sheet, he ranks Top 20 in both SG: Off the Tee and Approach, Top 25 in both Par 4 & 5 Scoring, and is 5th in SG: Putting overall and 3rd on Bentgrass greens. All things considered, English is a top play in all formats this week.

    Matthew Fitzpatrick
    World Golf Ranking (#19)
    Vegas Odds (34/1)
    Draftkings ($8,300)
    FanDuel ($9,600)

    I wrote up Fitz last week and he was much more boom than bust and now has finishes of 12th or better in four of his last five no-cut events while averaging 82.5 DraftKings points. He once again fits what I am looking for as he is very accurate off the tee ranking(in this field) 13th in driving accuracy on my sheet & 5th in fairways gained over the last 12 rounds(FNGC). Not only has he been gaining a ton of strokes with accuracy off the tee but he also ranks 7th in SG: Approach in within that same 12 round sample size. He is upgraded from GPP leverage play to core play for me this week.

    Value Targets

    Sebastian Munoz
    World Golf Ranking (#63)
    Vegas Odds (81/1)
    Draftkings ($7,200)
    FanDuel ($8,700)

    Like Fitz above, I am going back to the weel with Munoz this week, as well. It's hard to argue with the form as he has six finishes of T27 or better with three Top 10's over his last eight events and has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach together in three straight events. His all-around game has been elite lately and it shows as he ranks 7th in this field in Tee to Green over the last 12 rounds. And if you needed more convincing, Munoz now has three straight Top 10's and five straight Top 20's in these no-cut events with elite fields. Fire him up with confidence in all formats.

    Brian Harman
    World Golf Ranking (#95)
    Vegas Odds (91/1)
    Draftkings ($7,300)
    FanDuel ($8,300)

    Consistency and form seem to be the theme of this article and that brings me to another one of my favorite value plays this week. Since missing three straight cuts back in June/July, he has made nine straight(last week was no-cut) but what stands out more than anything is the fact he comes into this having gained strokes off the tee and on approach together in three straight events and has gained strokes putting in seven straight. That is more than for me to have him in my player pool this week.


    image sources




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