Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Bermuda Championship
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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The Fall season rolls on with a trip to Port Royal Golf Course for the Bermuda Championship. The field is nothing to write home about as there are is only one player ranked Top 50 in the world teeing it up this week and that is defending champion, Brendon Todd. Because of this, building DFS lineups this week is going to be much different as player pricing is greatly inflated.
The course is a Par 71 setup that is listed at 6,828 yards on the scorecard. It has smaller than average fairways and even with fairly non-penal rough(2" on average), positioning is going to be huge putting a ton of emphasis on hitting fairways. We are going to see a lot of players using a "less than driver" strategy off the tee and that was my analysis before seeing the weather forecast which everything hinges on this week. As of now, Thursday looks like the best day with 8-10 mph winds projected for most of the day with it picking up overnight. Friday through Sunday are currently showing steady winds of 20-25 mph and gusts reaching 30+ mph. This means I will be looking into players who have succeeded or at least not tanked in heavy wind conditions. Last year, we saw very windy conditions on Thursday and it calmed down for the remaining of the event so I feel this year won't get to that -20 mark.
With all that said, let's look at the scorecard breakdown, top stats in the model, and some core plays in each price range.
Port Royal Golf Course
Par 71 - 6,828 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee/Fairways Gained
- Smaller fairways, big correlation to top of leaderboard and accuracy off the tee, and then we add in very windy conditions for at least three of four rounds
- Strokes Gained: Approach/Opportunities Gained/Birdie or Better %
- All three of these stats correlate as an accurate approach gives you a better opportunity to score birdies which is what we want for our fantasy scoring. When breaking down the approach, I will also look at both rough and fairway proximity and apply it to the golfer I am breaking down(ex. less accurate golfers I will look closer at rough prox)
- Par 4 Scoring
- I have both Par 4 & Par 5 scoring in my model but have more weight on Par 4 as there are 11 of these holes on the course and 50% of all birdies came on them last year
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
- With smaller than average greens and expected high winds scrambling is going to be very important in saving pars and not losing strokes to the field
Top Tier Targets
Nothing about making picks this week feels right and it starts in the top tier with Grillo who we are rarely comfortable with when he is in the 7-8K range(DK) let alone the 10K range. Despite the price, he does stand out here for a few reasons starting with the form as he comes in having made seven straight cuts on the back of his iron game as he has gained at last 1.8 strokes on approach in each of those events. It is also good news that he has gained strokes off the tee in six of those seven events and ranks(in this field) 3rd in ball striking over the last 24 rounds. Finally, that ball-striking also comes in handy in the wind and Grillo has gained strokes total in 9 of his last 11 rounds in windy AF conditions. All things considered, I will have plenty of exposure to Grillo this week and will hope he can gain some strokes putting and tap into the upside.
We can't have a conversation about ball-striking without mentioning Doc Redman who finished just outside the Top 10 in that area among all PGA Tour players last season. Despite shooting 69/68 at the Shriners, he missed the cut but the good news is that he has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in three straight and four of his last five events. In terms of performance in the wind, he has gained strokes total in eight of his last 10 rounds(Windy AF conditions). He is going to be chalky in this top tier but is my favorite play and I will have exposure in all formats.
Mid Tier Targets
The sample size we have with Suh is very small making it a risky play but, to be honest, every play this week seems risky so here we are. Before the pandemic, Suh had played 12 PGA Tour events and missed the cut in 10 of them. As a part of the 2019 rookie class with Hovland, Morikawa, and Wolff, Suh was almost forgotten until recently when he posted a T14 at the Corales Championship and followed it up with a T8 at the Shriners Open. He now takes that form into an event with a much worse field adn will look to join those other 2019 rookies who already have Tour wins. Ok, it may not come this week but a top DFS performance is much more realistic and I will have exposure in all formats.
Wesley Bryan comes in at #7 in my overall model on the sheet which seems a bit aggressive but when we dig in further, it is quickly justified. Let's start with the form as he has made six of seven cuts since the return of golf with three Top 25 finishes and an average of 74.3 DraftKings points(4th best in this field). He also comes in having gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in four straight events and ranks 6th overall in ball striking, 8th in SG: Putting, 1st in Good drive %, and 2nd in birdie or better % on my sheet(40% this season stats, 60% last season). At these prices, he is in my core in all formats.
World Golf Ranking (#422)
Vegas Odds (101/1)
For value, the first name that jumps off the page to me is Rob Oppenheim. He finished with a Top 25 here last year and comes in with some form having made the cut and finishing T36 or better in four of his last five events. Statistically, he is only 48th in ball striking on my sheet but 8th in SG: Around the Green and what stands out the most are his performances in very windy conditions as he ranks Top 10 over the last 4, 8, and 12 rounds in these conditions. The event that stands out the most is the Sony Open where it was Windy AF(FNGC) in both rounds 1 & 2 and Oppenheim shot 65/67 and ended up with a T21 finish. I don't see him winning but feel another Top 25 is in the cards and that is more than enough for me to include him in my core for all formats.
Also Consider: Hank Lebioda, Michael Gligic