NFL Betting Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Week 8 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/27/20
Plenty of early NFL betting action to get in on before lines more before Week 8.
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The Chargers didn’t make it always look easy, but they did end up with a 10-point road win over the lowly Jaguars on Sunday. It was their first win since Week 1 and Justin Herbert’s first W since taking over behind center for Tyrod Taylor. The team’s offense has looked more than confident over the last three weeks with close losses to very good Buccaneers and Saints teams in Weeks 5 and 6 respectively.
But don’t overlook the defense, while the losses point to a unit looking for an identity, the schedule has been on the tougher side. This defense ranks 12th in defensive DVOA on the season even though the record would seem to point a different direction.
This week, they’ll get the Broncos in Denver which has historically been a tough place to travel. But like we said last week with the Chiefs, this Broncos teams’ deficiencies more than offset any downgrade teams get going into the Mile High air of Denver. They got destroyed by the Chiefs last week following two straight wins, but those were over the Jets and the increasingly suspect looking New England Patriots.
While the defense has looked competent at times, last week notwithstanding, the offense has been horrific no matter who’s been under center. Sure, it’s been a shaky ride with Lock out of the lineup for some games and the running back situation is hit or miss because of injuries (and otherwise). But this is a team without a ton of hope for improvement on the offensive end. They rank 31st in offensive DVOA.
Meanwhile, I still think there’s room for growth on the Chargers’ end as Herbert becomes increasingly more comfortable. Even heading out on the road, it’s hard to imagine the Denver offense getting much of anything going here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are starting to get to the point of the season where the separation between the haves and have nots becomes increasingly glaring. Such is the case with the Bucs and the Giants. While 10.5 is a huge number to give on the road, it’s worth noting that this season road teams are slightly outscoring home teams so the advantage of playing in front of home crowds is eroding with empty stadiums.
And these two teams couldn’t be any more different. Tampa Bay ranks first overall in defense and sixth in offense on the season with Tom Brady getting more and more comfortable with his weapons. The defensive front is causing opponents major issues. They rank second in sacks and will now face a Giants team allowing the seventh most opposing sacks on the season.
If Daniel Jones’s ill-fated run from Week 7 was any indication, there’s rather a Keystone Cops nature to their offense. Even when things look like they are going right, it’s actually just a mirage. This team completely stinks. They have a -52 point differential on the season (Tampa Bay +80) and should get stomped by the Bucs in Week 8.
The Titans are coming off a tough loss against the Steelers who’ve been one of the best teams in football this season. It took a missed field goal from Stephen Gostowski to seal Tennessee’s fate in what was staging to be a wild, come from behind victory. It was their first loss of the season after having injury and COVID issue to start. Their other wins (HOU, BUF, MIN, JAX) aren’t incredibly impressive on their face, but this is still a 4-1 team.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati is coming off a game against an Odell Beckham-less Browns team in which Baker Mayfield looked like the second coming of Joe Montana over 3/4s of the game. The Bengals rank 26th in defensive efficiency and are somehow even worse on offense at 28th. The Joe Burrow experience has been exciting as a rookie and decent fantasy-wise but this is still a guy with a 9:5 TD: INT rate and a team that struggles to get it going on the ground.
The Titans might not be as good as their 5-1 record suggests and Cincy probably isn’t as bad as their 1-5 record either. But Tennessee should control them with Derrick Henry on the ground for starters with a defense that could give Burrow problems.