Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 1/14/21
COVID has wreaked havoc on the NBA schedule so far and today is no different. We have two games that have been postponed already, with the Washington Wizards, Boston Celtics, Utah Jazz and Orlando Magic all having their games postponed. That turns a 10-game slate into an eight-game ledger, which actually makes things easier on us with so much news out there. With that in mind, let's get into it!
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Raw points are going to be critical on a slate with so much value and there may be no better bet for that than Doncic. We say that because he's been one of the league leaders in fantasy points scored since last season and has absolutely been crushing for over a week now. Over his last four games played, Doncic has scored at least 56.5 DraftKings points in all of them en route to a 67.5-point average. I don't need to tell you how absurd that is and it's scary to think how much usage he'll get here with Jalen Brunson, Josh Richardson and Maxi Kleber all sitting too. Just pay up for Doncic and build from there.
Tom Thibideau is notorious for giving his starters more minutes than they can handle and that's obviously huge news for his starting point guard. That happens to be Payton, with the former Louisana alum averaging 30.6 DK points per game across 32 minutes of action over his last nine outings. That makes this FanDuel price really hard to understand, especially when you see that he has at least 24 fantasy points in each of those nine fixtures. It's not like the matchup is bad either, facing a Brooklyn team that will likely be without Kevin Durant, Spencer Dinwiddie and Kyrie Irving.
Seeing Trae Young below $9K on both sites is weird after he dropped 45 DK points in just 25 minutes on Monday.
Bledsoe's numbers have not been pretty with the Pelicans but he's too good of a player to be sitting below $6,000. What makes it even more surprising is the fact that he appears to be turning things around. In fact, Bledsoe is averaging 29.4 DK points over his last five fixtures. That's really all you could hope for from a sub-$6K player and that's actually been closer to his floor in past seasons. Facing off with the Clippers isn't as scary as it sounds either, with Los Angeles sitting 16th in total defense this year.
Cam Reddish FD - $4500 DK - $5000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 26.25 DK - 26.53
Let's keep the value plays rolling with Cam Reddish. The reason he's in play is because Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari are injured. That leaves the Hawks very thin at the wing positions, forcing Reddish into 30 minutes of play. If you look at the seven games Reddish has played at least 25 minutes, he's averaging 24 fantasy points per game. That's a fantastic mark from a player sitting around $5,000 on both sites and he makes a beautiful pairing with guys like Doncic and Giannis. Not to mention, Reddish has been feeling perky recently, averaging 13.3 shots over his last three games played.
Mikal Bridges FD - $5700 DK - $5700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 32.28 DK - 32.63
This slate is going to be all about the stars and scrubs strategy which is why we have a bunch of cheap values and a couple of studs. Bridges happens to be one of the best values, establishing himself as one of the best defenders in the NBA. That has led to him playing 33 minutes a night which has established a 22-point fantasy floor. Scoring 22 DK points in every game is a tough feat for anyone, let alone a guy below $6K. The reason that defense becomes really enticing today is the matchup, with the Hawks owning a 29th OPRK against opposing small forwards this year. Not to mention, Bridges is averaging 33.3 DK points per game over his last two outings.
Kyle Anderson FD - $5400 DK - $6400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 32.4 DK - 32.99
Here's another great value thriving off the fact that his teammates are missing games. The guys who are out in Memphis include Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Those are actually the typical focal points of the offense and it's turned Anderson into one of their primary playmakers. That's evident by the fact that he has at least 21 DK points in every game this season, averaging 14.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists since the opener. That's even less surprising when you see that he has a 26 percent usage rate with this current lineup. The icing on the cake is the matchup though, facing a T'Wolves team that ranks 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency.
We like Josh Jackson below $5K if he starts for Detroit.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11000 DK - $10600
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 54.99 DK - 57.68
We already talked about raw points when we discussed Luka, and Giannis is certainly one of those guys. He's actually been the top producer in fantasy over the last three years and there's no better bet for 50-plus than Giannis and Luka. We say that because Antetokounmpo has scored at least 57 DraftKings points in six of 10 games this season en route to a 51-point average. That's actually him "struggling" and it's scary just how good this guy can be when he's rolling. That's been the case over the last five games, averaging 55 fantasy points per game in that span. We love all of that against a 24th-ranked Pistons defense.
James Johnson FD - $4200 DK - $3900
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 29.26 DK - 27.34
This might be our riskiest punt play of the day but someone has to play frontcourt minutes for the Mavericks. They're going to be missing the three guys from the Doncic write-up and Dwight Powell. That will leave this roster with about eight healthy guys and should force Johnson into 20-30 minutes. If he gets the 25 minutes we project, he should provide 24 fantasy points. We say that because he's averaging 15.2 DK points across 16 minutes a game this season. Those 24 fantasy points are actually below our projections and if he reaches the 27-30 fantasy points we project, JJ would be the best value of the day near $4,000.
P.J. Washington has been stellar since Cody Zeller went down and should thrive against a shorthanded Dallas frontcourt.
Jarrett Allen FD - $7200 DK - $6700
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 38.18 DK - 38.53
It's strange that Allen remains in the $7,000 price range rather than the $8,000s. We say that because he's been playing like an $8K player. Since taking over starting center duties last week, Allen has scored at least 31 DK points in five-straight games. He's actually averaging just shy of 40 fantasy points per game in that span, collecting fantasy points through sheer hustle. What adds to his intrigue here is the fact that Durant and Irving could both be out. That would add minutes, shot attempts and usage to Allen's already stellar production, making him one of the best center plays on this slate.
Richaun Holmes FD - $6400 DK - $6400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 39.2 DK - 38.92
Holmes is coming off one of the best games of his career and it's becoming clear that he's the only center in Sacramento. Many people were worried about Hassan Whiteside but he's almost out of the rotation altogether. That has led to Holmes playing at least 30 minutes in five of his last seven games, dropping at least 43 DK points in three of those. That's an unseen ceiling from a $6,400 player and 48 DraftKings points in his most recent game shows just how special he can be. The best part about using him today might be the matchup though, with Portland ranked 23rd in total defense while surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Clint Capela remains below $7,000 on both sites and is too good to be that cheap.
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