Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 1/18/21
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Point GuardLuka Doncic FD - $11200 DK - $11000
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 58.39 DK - 61.4
Luka has been utterly dominant recently, cresting over 77 FanDuel points in three of his last five games. He's a rebound in one game and an assist in another game from getting a triple double in his last five games. Toronto, meanwhile, has lapsed from one of the toughest defensive match-up to a totally reasonable one. The Raptors are playing a top 8 pace with a defensive efficiency that ranks in the bottom half of the league. Luka is a premier pay-up option on a night where finding value is going to be tough.
It's the game with by far the highest total on the slate, and with Kyrie potentially returning for this one you could see one of the worst defensive back-courts in recent memory between Irving and Harden. Holiday has been contributing across the board recently, and racking up defensive stats in just the way the Bucks hoped he would, with at least a block and two steals in each of his last five games. In what should be a tight game, he should be on lock for his entire run of minutes as well.
Also considered: Trey Burke, if Hardaway winds up sitting again.
Shooting GuardZach LaVine FD - $9300 DK - $9500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 45.48 DK - 46.62
Some of the shine comes off this play now that Oladipo has been ruled in, but LaVine is still by far the most attractive shooting guard play on the board. He's a classic DFS play that you can't judge by his year to date stats since he'll play a lot more minutes in close games than in blowouts. While there's no line on this game at the moment, it should be a competitive one between LaVine's Bulls and what's left of the Rockets. LaVine has quietly improved across the board this season, improving his shooting percentage, rebounds, and assists while playing roughly the same number of minutes. While he's getting expensive, he looks worth it from here.
Andrew Wiggins FD - $6700 DK - $6600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.45 DK - 35.74
Shooting guard is an outright mess tonight, and Wiggins at least provides us with a guy who should be out there for a reliable amount of minutes and usage. The Lakers are 9 point favorites here, and there is certainly some blowout risk, but I'm honestly wondering who anyone could consider to be a safer option on this four-game slate. The Lakers are unquestionably a stout defensive team, but covering shooting guards isn't exactly their strong suit. I don't love the play, but it might be a necessary evil. Also considered: Victor Oladipo in his debut for the Rockets, though I'm also considering Mason Jones if Oladipo winds up restricted for whatever reason.
Small ForwardKevin Durant FD - $10500 DK - $10100
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 59.15 DK - 61.39
Joe Harris FD - $4500 DK - $5800
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 25.43 DK - 27.06
Our system likes all the Nets' small forwards you can handle today. While Durant potentially will lose some volume if Kyrie returns, Harris looks locked into his current role. In spite of playing 1 fewer minute per game so far than he did last year, he's shooting more often and making more of the shots he does take. The Nets' offense is just designed to get him wide open looks, and Harden seems thrilled to have such a competent shooter standing wide open on his drive and kicks. Durant didn't seem to mind Harden's arrival in his own right, as the two man game between Harden and Durant looked downright unstoppable. I love grabbing both of these guys tonight.
Khris Middleton FD - $8000 DK - $8000
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 42.2 DK - 44.42
Speaking of good small forward plays from this game, I'll present you with Khris Middleton. The basic theme with the Bucks' starters is that they are all slightly under-priced on account of the Bucks being involved in so many blowouts. Middleton's points per dollar floor might be highest among the Bucks, as his normal rotation leads all starters at around 37 minutes per game. The Nets will be tremendous offensively, but they are basically all holes on defense, and Middleton should be able to cook here.
Power ForwardChristian Wood FD - $9800 DK - $8900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 56.3 DK - 58.06
You're paying top dollar for Wood at this point, but he's kind of been worth it? Wood is playing huge minutes (40 against the Spurs last game), is keeping up his shot volume from early in the season, and is just hustling like mad right now. With 33 rebounds and 6 blocks over his last two games, Wood is contributing across the board, and leaving a trail of wreckage in his wake. Harden's absence only sweetens what was already a pretty sweet deal, and going up against a Chicago team that's playing a top 3 pace with a bottom 3 defensive efficiency is a dream come true.
Chris Boucher FD - $8100 DK - $7100
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 43 DK - 41.37
While Boucher's price is climbing on FanDuel, the 7.1k price tag on DraftKings is downright negligible. Boucher has been flat out incredible on a production per-minute basis this season, ranking him in the top 5 in PER so far. He's shooting an astounding 59.6% from the field, and honestly, it looks somewhat sustainable. He's coming off the bench for the Raptors, but has been starting the second half for them with some frequency. He'll go up against a banged up Dallas front-court today and should do some serious work, even if he does come off the bench.
CenterWendell Carter Jr. FD - $5900 DK - $6500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 29.44 DK - 30.21
Carter is flat out better than this FanDuel price suggests, having paid 5x-6x+ in four of his last five games. Yes, he can lose minutes if the Bulls are doing poorly since he's particularly ill-equipped to be out there when they are playing catch-up, but that shouldn't be the case here. They'll need his size against the front court of Wood and Cousins, and if he plays 30+ minutes he's a slam dunk value at these prices.
James Wiseman FD - $4400 DK - $4600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.91 DK - 30.49
The Warriors have lengthened Wiseman's leash, but his price hasn't come up alongside it. He's a great play if you think he plays 25+ minutes against the Lakers here.
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