Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 1/19/21
Monday's slate was amazing with games spread all throughout the day but that leaves this Tuesday very thin. In fact, we have just two games on the ledger, with many teams playing on Monday and Wednesday. What's interesting about these slates is the fact that you can't fade chalk. There's inevitably going to be a few players in almost every lineup and it's because raw points are more important than anything. Scores will be lower but we'll try to offer up some value plays to fill out an optimal lineup with those chalky studs. With that in mind, let's talk about these games!
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Murray has been one of the biggest disappointments for season-long fantasy players but that doesn't really matter for DFS. On the contrary, it makes him even more intriguing for DFS because his price continues to drop. We're talking about a guy who averaged about 50 fantasy points per game in last year's postseason and has the ability to be a five-figure player. He's been finding some of that form recently, scoring 40-plus DraftKings points in back-to-back games. What we really love is that he's averaging 22 shots and 38 minutes a night over his last three games and that alone makes him hard to avoid at this price tag.
Conley has been the opposite of Murray and has been a pleasant surprise for season-long fantasy players. That's definitely evident in his price, going up nearly $2,000 since the start of the season. That's even less surprising when you see that Conley is averaging 16.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.3 steals en route to 34.4 DK points a night for the year. That's the Conley we knew and loved in his Memphis days and it's clear he's running the offense more than Donovan Mitchell at this point. We're really not concerned with him facing an 18th-ranked Pelicans defense either.
Outside of Jokic, this is probably the best raw points play on the board. What's nice here is that you get to save $3000 from Jokic's price tag and that's going to put SGA in almost every lineup out there. That's the right play though, with Gilgeous-Alexander scoring at least 50 DraftKings points in four of his last six games. That's an unheard-of total from a player south of $9,000 and it's a wonder why these DFS sites haven't risen his price more. The matchup only adds to his intrigue, with Denver surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing guards this season.
Jordan Clarkson FD - $6300 DK - $6500
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.14 DK - 31.4
This is a weird recommendation because Clarkson is a bench player but he's been one of the early leaders for Sixth Man of the Year. We say that because he's averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game, dropping at least 29 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. His last three games have been even more impressive, with JC averaging 40 DK points per game in that span. If we get 40 from a $6,500 player, Clarkson will be in every winning lineup out there on a two-game slate.
Brandon Ingram FD - $8400 DK - $9100
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 40.67 DK - 41.75
Jokic, SGA and this guy are going to be in nearly every lineup out there and rightfully so. The thing that makes Ingram such a good option is his floor, scoring at least 30 DraftKings points in every game this season. That has led to him averaging 42 fantasy points per game for the year, running this Pelicans offense at ease. Getting a 30-point floor from any player on a two-game slate is nearly impossible to avoid, particularly when the guy averages 35 minutes and 17 shots a night. Ingram showed last season that he's not scared of this matchup either, averaging 51 DK points per game in four matchups with the Jazz.
Luguentz Dort FD - $5300 DK - $5100
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 22.41 DK - 22.81
Dort just had the best game of his career on Sunday and it's hard to understand why he didn't see a major price increase. We're talking about a guy who plays 30 minutes a night regularly, providing 47 DK points across 40 minutes in that Sunday spectacle. How often do you see a $5K player drop 47 fantasy points? That alone makes him one of the best values out there and we haven't even discussed that he gets to face a 26th-ranked Denver defense here. You need some cheap players to fit in Jokic, SGA and Ingram, and Dort is a great fill-in option.
Zion Williamson FD - $7800 DK - $7900
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 35.9 DK - 36.36
Zion isn't necessarily a great value at these price tags but he's one of the best bets for raw points on this slate. We say that because he's scored at least 39 fantasy points in five-straight games which is actually just one-point shy of his season average. It's hard to fade a guy with a 39-point floor on a two-game slate, particularly when it's a young stud like this with 50-point potential. The lack of options at power forward is another reason why we like him, with no other trustworthy PFs on this slate available.
Isaiah Roby FD - $4500 DK - $4100
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 23.86 DK - 24.5
This is one of the easiest plays out there. We say that because you need some cheap guys to fit in the aforementioned studs and there's no better cheap play than Roby. He'll start for Al Horford (personal) and he's been stellar in this role. In the two games that he's started for Big Al, Roby has played at least 24 minutes in both while scoring at least 24 fantasy points in each of them. That tells us that he's a fantasy-point-per-minute producer and one would have to believe 24 minutes is his floor. If we get 30 minutes and 30 DK points out of Roby, he would provide us with 7X value, making him one of the best value plays on the slate. Not to mention, the Nuggets have one of the worst defenses in basketball and OKC will need Roby's big body to match up with Joker.
Nikola Jokic FD - $11500 DK - $11000
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 59.43 DK - 61.26
Jokic is usually the best option on an 11-game slate, so, he's easily the best option here. In fact, we'd argue that he has to be the first piece in every lineup, forcing you to build from there. We're talking about a guy who's averaging 25 points, 11.4 rebounds, 10.3 assists and 1.9 steals per game. That equates to over 61 DraftKings points per outing which happens to be nearly 20 fantasy points higher than anyone else on this slate. Oklahoma City missing Horford only adds to Jokic's value and he should be in 100 percent of the lineups out there.
Steven Adams FD - $5800 DK - $6100
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 28.27 DK - 27.82
If you want to play with fire and avoid Jokic, Adams is the next best option. We say that because he's scored at least 28 DK points in four of his last five games en route to a 29-point average for the season. His performance on Sunday was actually his best of the year, tallying 12 points, 15 rebounds and four assists. It's rare for Adams to drop 37 fantasy points without any defensive statistics but it shows us that he has sky-high potential for a $6K player. Facing Utah adds to Adams value too, as he should play some extra minutes opposing Gobert's big body.
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