Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Waste Management Phoenix Open

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Welcome back golf fans. This week the Tour heads to the desert and TPC Scottsdale for the 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open. Since the return of the PGA Tour last summer, there have been few events where I felt things were different with limited or no fans but this week is a big one. A four-time winner of the PGA Tour event of the year, the WMPO annually attracts hundreds of thousands of fans but will have a different feel in 2021 with a limit of 5000-ish fans per day. In comparison, that is about as many as you would see around the tee box at the Par 3, 16th hole(haha). Either way, there is a golf tournament to played and that means we have some analysis and picks to get into.

One thing we can be happy about right off the bat is the strong field headlined by five of the World's Top 10 golfers in Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and the defending champion, Webb Simpson.

The course is a par 71 setup that stretches out just over 7,200 yards and is right around Tour average in terms of difficulty ranking inside the Top 20 hardest courses just twice over the last seven years. The fairways are on the difficult side to hit producing a field average around 55% over the last five years. The good news for players is that the rough is not very penal so bombers can have a slight advantage if their short game is on. When it comes to the greens, they are one of the most unique on Tour as they are listed as TifEagle Bermuda but are then overseeded with Bentgrass, Poa, and Ryegrass. It is a true grass party in Scottsdale.

The Course

TPC Scottsdale
Par 71 - 7,261 Yards
Greens - TifEagle Bermuda 

Previous Five Winners

• 2020 - Webb Simpson(-17)
• 2019 - Rickie Fowler(-17)
• 2018 - Gary Woodland(-18)
• 2017 - Hideki Matsuyama(-17)
• 2016 - Hideki Matsuyama(-14)

Top Stats in the Model

Strokes Gained: Approach

I talked about bombers having a slight advantage here with non-penal rough and that means or of the most important stats this week is the approach shot. On top of just SG: Approach, I will also be looking at mid-range iron Proximity as about 25% of all approaches from the 150-175 yard range and I will also be placing some weight on Rough Proximity, especially from the bombers.

Par 4 Scoring

With one less Par 5 this week and all three of them reachable in two, Par 4 scoring is where players will have the best shot to separate themselves from the pack.

Birdie or Better %

The winning score he has been consistently between -14 and -18 for five straight years with at least nine players tallying 20+ birdies in three of the last four trips to the desert.

Par 5 Birdie or Better %

I weigh this over straight Par 5 scoring as this event has one of the highest Eagle rates on Tour and has seen 45+ in two straight years.

Top Tier Targets

Justin Thomas
World Golf Ranking (#3)
Vegas Odds (9/1)
Draftkings ($10,800)
FanDuel ($11,800)

The top 3 golfers in my initial run of rankings on the sheet also happen to be the top 3 in salary, as well. All three are check every box for me this week and if I was playing multi-entry GPP, I would most definitely have exposure to all of them. In cash games, the decision comes pretty easy for me as JT is the cheapest of those three on DraftKings and returns to TPC Scottsdale with T3 finishes in each of the last two years. His form is what is really turning my head this week as he has tallied a Top 5 finish in three of his last four events and a Top 15 finish in seven straight events. He is my top overall play for DFS this week and in play in all formats.

Will Zalatoris
World Golf Ranking (#53)
Vegas Odds (46/1)
Draftkings ($9,000)
FanDuel ($10,600)

It feels so odd that Zalatoris is more expensive than Koepka, Fowler, Oosthuizen, Bubba, Woodland, and even Henley but digging deeper, we can clearly see why. First of all, he has a ton riding on this season as a win on the PGA Tour, multiple wins on the Korn Ferry Tour, or a Top 125 position in the FedEx Cup standings will secure his Tour card for next season. That motivation has driven him to an excellent start as he has made 6 of 7 cuts including for Top 10 finishes, one of which came at the U.S. Open back in September. Looking at the last 12 rounds data(via FNGC), Zalatoris ranks 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 8th in SG: Approach, 25th in BoB%, 11th in Eagle rate, and 11th in DK scoring. Lock and load in all formats.

Mid Tier Targets

Rickie Fowler
World Golf Ranking (#62)
Vegas Odds (41/1)
Draftkings ($8,600)
FanDuel ($10,300)

It has been a very long time since I included Rickie Fowler in an article but the stars could be aligning here for a breakout performance from the once Top 5 player in the world. While he finished with a disappointing T53 last week on the back of losing almost four strokes putting, the ball striking has really started to pop as he has gained at least 4.4 strokes in that area in back to back events. He now returns to the WMPO where he has a tremendous track record recently with Top 11 finishes in four of his last five trips including a win in 2019 and three total Top 5's in that time. There is definitely risk here as he hasn't tallied a Top 10 in over a year but the price is in a spot where I am willing to take on that risk in all formats given everything mentioned above.

Corey Conners/Max Homa

Both were core plays for me last week and while Conners was somewhat of a letdown, he didn't kill you in cash games. As for Homa, his hot run continued as he gained 4.5 strokes on approach and finished with a T18. Despite Conners finish last week and his T47 in his first trip to the WMPO last year, he feels underpriced given his elite ball-striking(7th in this field on my sheet) and is in play in all formats.

With Homa, we are getting dangerously close to his all-time-high salary but he is just too hard to ignore as he not only hits on form(T18, T21, T12 last three events) but returns to TPC Scottsdale with a T26 in 2019 and a T6 last year. All things considered, he is also in play in all formats for me this week.

Value Targets

Chris Kirk
World Golf Ranking (#121)
Vegas Odds (91/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($8,900)

Kirk is a little above my value threshold but I realized I left him out above so here we area(lol). Speaking of returning to form, Kirk has also been terrific lately with Top 20 finishes in three of his last four events including a runner-up at the Sony Open. Going back even further, Kirk has made the cut in six straight and 11 of 13 events since the return of golf last summer. What really stands out recently is the 9.5 strokes gained on approach over the last eight rounds. With a putter that is also running hot(+5.2 last two events), it is time to jump on the Kirk train in all formats given the low to mid-tier price on both sites.

Russell Knox
World Golf Ranking (#225)
Vegas Odds (441/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)
FanDuel ($8,400)

Knox has been on a Top 25 or missed cut stretch since back in September and coming off a MC at the Farmers, you know what to do! In all seriousness, he returns to TPC Scottsdale off a T10 and T16 in back to back years and has Top 20 finishes in three of five career trips here. The inconsistency has been almost solely due to putting which, at times, looks like he isn;t using one at all. The good news is the irons are on as he has gained strokes on approach in six straight and nine of his last 10 events(with shot tracker). At these prices, I am in on Knox in all formats this week in the desert.