Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 2/19/21
After a slow Thursday slate, we're back to a full one here. We have nine games on the docket, with the Houston-Dallas matchup getting postponed. Losing that game takes out some big-name players, but there's still plenty of good options on the board. There's a lot to discuss, so let's go ahead and get into it!
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It's crazy that Morant remains so affordable on both sites. This dude has been a monster when healthy, and we genuinely believe he'll be a $9,000 player by the end of the season. He showed why in his first week before getting injured, averaging over 55 fantasy points per game. While he did struggle a little in his return from his ankle issue, he's still scored at least 32 DraftKings points in six-straight while dropping 46-plus in back-to-back games. The talent will eventually overwhelm this price, and we love that he faces a 22nd-ranked Detroit defense here as well.
Talk about some mispricing. Garland has hovered around $5K ever since he returned from injury, and it makes no sense why. We're talking about a player who averaged 34 DK points per game across 34 minutes a night before his injury. That's what we've seen lately, with Garland averaging 28 DK points per game across his last 11 outings. That's all you can ask for from a sub $6K player, especially when this is a blossoming 21-year-old who will only get better as the season progresses. Facing a shorthanded Nuggets team that ranks 16th in defensive efficiency isn't worrisome either.
Jamal Murray has been stellar the last three games, and his usage should continue to rise with so many Nuggets sitting.
With Kyle Lowry out for the next few games, FVV will be running things for the Raptors. That was certainly the case on Thursday when VanVleet collected 17 points, five rebounds, eight assists, and two stocks across 40 minutes against the Bucks. In the five games without Lowry this season, FVV is averaging 45 DraftKings points per game in 37 minutes a night. More importantly, he's leading the team with a 28 percent usage rate with him off the floor. If we get a guy this talented playing 37 minutes and providing a 28 percent usage rate, VanVleet should have no problem reaching 50 fantasy points yet again. The matchup is simply the icing on the cake, with Minnesota ranked 24th in defensive efficiency and 26th in points allowed.
Seth Curry FD - $4000 DK - $4800
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 23.58 DK - 24.38
Curry was the first to admit that he was slow in his recovery from COVID, but he appears to be fully over it now. We say that because he's played at least 34 minutes in four-straight fixtures, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in four of his last six games. His 38-point gem in the Sixers most recent game is an excellent indicator of just how good this guy can be, especially when you see these silly price tags. That's the guy who averaged 27 DK points per game before contracting COVID, and it's a wonder why this price has fallen so far. Playing Chicago only adds to his value, with the Bulls ranked fourth in pace and 27th in total defense.
Khris Middleton FD - $7300 DK - $7600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 40.54 DK - 42.26
With Jrue Holiday continuing to miss games, Middleton has turned into the de facto point guard on this team. In fact, KM is averaging a career-high 5.8 assists per game, providing 20.3 points and 5.8 rebounds as well. That equates to nearly 40 DraftKings points per game, making the sub $8K price tag hard to figure. It's undoubtedly due to a recent slump this week but dropping nearly $1,000 since the beginning of the month is a criminal move, especially with Jrue out. The best part of this play is the matchup, though, with Oklahoma City owning a 30th OPRK against opposing small forwards this season.
Cedi Osman FD - $4200 DK - $
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 30.53 DK - 31.62
Osman is not someone you're going to get excited about, but this guy is too good to be this cheap. The injuries are the thing that's opened up things for Cedi, with Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr, Taurean Prince, Andre Drummond and Dylan Windler all sidelined. That led to a spot start on Monday, dropping 39 fantasy points. He's been productive all year when given the playing time, scoring at least 26 DK points in the nine games he's played at least 32 minutes en route to a 35-point average. Denver struggles with opposing SFs, too, surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to them for the season.
With the Nuggets so shorthanded, Michael Porter Jr should be looking at a prominent role.
Tobias Harris FD - $8200 DK - $7900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 45.33 DK - 46.33
Toby never gets the credit he deserves. This guy has been doing work in this league for years now, and he never gets an All-Star consideration. We're talking about a dude who's averaging 20.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game on 52 percent from the field, 43 percent from three-point range, and 90 percent from the free-throw line. Tell me that's not an All-Star player! In any case, he's been even better recently, scoring at least 58 DK points in back-to-back games coming into this matchup. The Bulls certainly won't slow him down at their blistering pace, owning a 28th OPRK against opposing PFs, too.
JaMychal Green FD - $4200 DK - $
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 29.48 DK - 30.73
This is the third time Green has been in this article this week, and it's easy to understand why. Denver is currently without Paul Millsap, P.J. Dozier, Will Barton, and Gary Harris. That's forced Green into the starting job, playing at least 29 minutes in those two games we recommended him. The most recent one was a 33-point gem, and if he does that again at this price, JaMychal is one of the best value plays on the board. We believe he can because we're talking about a guy who's averaging exactly a fantasy-point-per-minute for the season. If he gets 30 minutes again, that means 30 fantasy points! We aren't concerned about him facing a 23rd-ranked Cavs defense that surrenders the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing PFs. Not to mention, they have a big roster which should force Green into even more playing time.
Jerami Grant remains below $8K on both sites, and he's been too good this season to be that cheap.
Joel Embiid FD - $10300 DK - $10700
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 60.8 DK - 63.12
This dude should be the frontrunner for MVP. I know LeBron James is an absolute beast, but Embiid is playing the best basketball of his career right now. The big man has scored at least 40 fantasy points in 22 of his last 23 games this season, dropping at least 53 DK points in 10 of his previous 12 games. He's also averaging over 54 fantasy points per game in that span, too, making him hard to fade no matter the price tag. It's not like we expect Chicago to stop him either, owning the ugly defensive statistics we mentioned in the Harris and Curry write-ups.
Willy Hernangomez FD - $4400 DK - $3900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 26.7 DK - 26.27
With Steven Adams unlikely to play here, Big Willy should be looking at a spot start at center. With Adams out on Wednesday, Hernangomez provided 11 points and 17 rebounds across 29 minutes in one of his career's best performances. That gives him 61 combined fantasy points over the last two games, doing that damage in just 48 minutes of action. It's hard to find someone this likely to grab a double-double at $5,000, let alone $4K on both sites. Deandre Ayton's size should garner him some extra minutes, too and it's not like Ayton's defense is anything to write home about.