Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 4/5/21
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With D'Angelo Russell and Ricky Rubio considered doubtful for tonight's game, the Wolves should turn the point guard duties back over to Jordan McLaughlin. The Timberwolves' third-string point guard put in 42 minutes of duty in their Saturday loss to Philly, and supplied 39.7 FanDuel points in the process. It's a far better match-up here with the Kings, and McLaughlin is just a price and opportunity mismatch at these price points.
Discussing the rest:
After McLaughlin, you'll need some context to plan for tonight. Mike Conley is labeled as questionable, and if he winds up sitting Jordan Clarkson becomes a clear value option. All signs point to his sitting on Saturday being due to being on a back-to-back, but if he does sit, you should be ready.
If you find a lot of value options thanks to the number of questionable players tonight, Luka is playable even in a tough match-up with the Jazz. Luka becomes a better option if Josh Richardson Kristaps Porzingis wind up missing this one.
Anthony Edwards FD - $7400 DK - $7600
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.22 DK - 39.85
Edwards is playing otherworldly minutes with the Wolves' entire frontcourt looking doubtful, and like McLaughlin, he will see huge cash game ownership. He's very scoring dependent, but if he's in line for 40 minutes in a close game, it shouldn't matter in a great match-up with the Kings.
Tyrese Haliburton FD - $5800 DK - $6500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 32.45 DK - 32.96
Halliburton has averaged almost exactly 5x points per dollar in his last four contests and should do even better against a Minnesota team that plays the sixth-fastest PACE with the fourth-worst defensive efficiency. The Timberwolves are so shallow in the back-court that a hustler like Halliburton is in a great position to use his hustle to chip in extra points, so these projections look like his floor to me.
If Richardson misses here, Tim Hardaway Jr. is a solid play.
Kevin Porter Jr. FD - $6200 DK - $7300
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.62 DK - 37.67
KPJ was a 93% start in cash games on FanDuel last night, and he's probably lined up for a similar level of ownership tonight. He's playing 36+ minute rotations in close games, and with Wall out of the lineup, he's running the point as well. All that extra time on ball is helping him generate 8+ assists a game as the starting point guard, and while Phoenix is not an ideal match-up, he should be able to hit value here even if things get out of hand.
OG Anunoby FD - $7000 DK - $7200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 36.4 DK - 36.15
Anunoby's price is on the rise, but that's just because of the incredible consistency he's put together recently. He's topped 32 FanDuel points on FanDuel in every game since he returned from injury on March 17th, and while some of that is dependent on Lowry's absence, he contributes enough across the board that Lowry returning shouldn't hurt him much. Like Minnesota, Washington is a phenomenal match-up, playing the league's fastest pace with the 5th worst defensive efficiency.
Also considered: Keldon Johnson.
Jerami Grant FD - $6400 DK - $7200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 38.6 DK - 39.15
Grant's price has fallen off a cliff on account of Detroit's complete inability to stay in a game, but I hold out hope that even the Pistons can hang with an OKC team that's missing both SGA and Al Horford, and likely will be with out Dort and Roby as well. Grant was playing 36 minutes in close games, if you can remember when that was, and his per-game averages paint the picture of a guy who should be at least 10% more expensive against a banged-up OKC team.
Julius Randle FD - $9000 DK - $9600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 46.43 DK - 50.44
With a decent amount of value flowing tonight, we should be able to pay up for Randle against a Brooklyn team that's missing Durant and likely Harden as well. Randle abused the Nets' frontcourt in their last meeting, putting up 33/12/6 en route to 60 FanDuel points. The additions of Aldridge and Griffin don't really help the Nets defensively, and Randle should feast here.
Also considered: Dean Wade as a cheap value option against the Spurs.
Moses Brown FD - $6800 DK - $7100
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 42.05 DK - 42.12
Like Grant, Brown's price has declined thanks to his team's utter inability to stay in games. Like Grant, he gets the opportunity to play another terrible team today, and should return to his full 33-minute rotation if this game manages to stay close. I like our projection system's forecast of a 40+ fantasy point game here.
LaMarcus Aldridge FD - $5800 DK - $5600
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 32 DK - 32.04
Aldridge is priced this way thanks to his Weekend at Bernie's routine in San Antonio, not like the poor-man's-Jokic he's been in Brooklyn. The Knicks are a lot weaker against opposing centers with Robinson out of the line-up, and if Harden misses I can see the Nets running a portion of the offense through him in the same way they did in his first game as a Net.
Also considered: Boban, if Porzingis misses this one.