Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 4/12/21
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White isn't the type of play that jumps off the page at first, but he probably should be. First of all, he's quietly been consolidating more shots in the San Antonio offense, averaging 16.67 shots per game over his last 6 games (as opposed to his season averages of 12.4). That's a huge increase, and yet the price is still closer to where it was when he didn't have such a prominent role. Then there's the match-up, with the Magic having allowed the very most fantasy points to opposing point guards so far this season.
I'm writing up Simmons with less conviction then I though I would be when I saw the $7,200 price tag, mostly due to his recent game log. But as I went game by game, I could come up with a good reason he wasn't paying these paltry prices. Mostly, it was because Philly hasn't been in that many close games recently. We know that Simmons will run a 35 minute rotation when duty calls, and in this game, duty is a callin' in the form of Luka Doncic. If you see this game staying close, you almost have to envision Simmons matching Luka's rotations, in which case paying a $7,200 price tag should be trivial.
Also considered: Luka, even if he his smashing into the Ben Simmons defensive meat grinder.
Keep an eye on the Nets starting lineup. With Kyrie and Harden ruled out, Chris Chiozza could party like it's 2020.
Donovan Mitchell FD - $9000 DK - $9200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 45.54 DK - 47.82
Shooting guard stops and starts with the Utah Jazz for me, tonight. With Conley ruled out and Clarkson doubtful, Ingles and Mitchell will undoubtedly be running the show against a Wizards team that plays the league's fastest pace and the 5th worst defense. The lack of depth on the Jazz could help this game stay close, and let Ingles and Mitchell play their full rotation as well.
Tyrese Haliburton FD - $5700 DK - $6100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.81 DK - 31.32
Haliburton has been a go-to cash game staple when no other value presents itself, and while I'll probably go double-Jazz tonight, you can make a case for Hali as well. He's cheap after coming off of back-to-back tough nights, but there's no reason that he shouldn't go back to scoring 32-35 FanDuel points a game, especially against a Pelicans team that pairs the league's 3rd worst defensive efficiency with a top 10 pace.
Joe Harris FD - $5300 DK - $5600
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 26.8 DK - 28.55
With Kyrie and Harden out (and, I guess, Aldridge) there is a decided lack of shooting for the Nets. Enter Harris, who has been the go-to option whenever the Nets are short handed. He should benefit from basically anyone running the point except a shoot-first Irving, and a great match-up with the Timberwolves only sweetens the deal.
Kent Bazemore FD - $5200 DK - $4300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 28.51 DK - 27.95
With Oubre's MRI coming back positive for a sprained wrist, we have another opportunity to grab Baze in the starting lineup at a discount. He got 32 minutes in Oubre's stead against the Rockets, and chipped in 31 FanDuel points. While Denver's a tougher match-up, Bazemore is just under-priced relative to his baseline, particularly on DraftKings. Look for him to supply another complete line and 30ish fantasy point performance from a weak position.
Also considered: Patrick Williams.
Christian Wood FD - $7400 DK - $7900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 43.14 DK - 43.47
Wood has cooled off from his early-season tear, but this FanDuel price is at least a little insulting, right? I get that Wood only had 3 rebounds when the Rockets and Suns squared off a week ago, but sometimes that's how the cookie crumbles. It's not like the Suns were enacting any particular strategy to keep him off the boards, and I expect him to gather his typical 9ish rebounds and take advantage of the Suns' relatively weak interior defense.
Tobias Harris FD - $7700 DK - $7900
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.46 DK - 39.72
Harris is not on the injury report for Monday, and I'm pretty psyched to get him back into my cash game line-ups. Like Simmons, he's trading at a bit of a discount thanks to a bunch of weird Sixers game scripts recently. Like Simmons, the Sixers will desperately need his offense so they can trade blows with the Mavs. I like Harris for a 35+ minute rotation and perhaps the highest points per dollar floor at the position tonight.
Andre Drummond FD - $6500 DK - $6800
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 37.49 DK - 38.36
He's alive. He's ALLIIIIIVE! Drummond has paid these prices handily in the last two games in spite of missing time due to foul trouble in the first, and a blowout in the second. If he plays his full allotment of minutes we're looking at an $8k player potentially, so I'll happily grab him at these prices against a Knicks' interior that is simply porous with Mitchell Robinson.
A few other considerations:
Annoyingly, there are a number of decent options at center tonight. Embiid looks more than fine against Philly. Holmes should dominate New Orleans. Valanciunas is playable, as always. Heck, I don't even mind Mo Bamba who had 35% cash game ownership last night. It's tough to go too wrong at center tonight as long as you don't try to get too cute.