Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 4/19/21
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Brogdon's price is just flat out wrong at this point. He played just 28 minutes in his first game back from injury, but in the 5 games since he's averaged 44.3 FanDuel points a game. That's just ridiculous production on this price point, and it doesn't hurt that the Spurs have allowed a top 10 total to opposing point guards this season.
Speaking of elite point guards that are far too cheap, I present Mr. Ben Simmons. He seems to have overcome his rough patch with back to back 40+ FanDuel point performances, and the Warriors are woefully unequipped to deal with Philly's size. They'll have their hands full with Embiid and (hopefully) Harris, and Simmons should be able to fill it up here.
Also considered: Coby White.
While Beal is worth a little bit less than it looked like he'd be earlier this season, this FanDuel price is pretty much in joke territory. He's averaged better than 5x points per dollar on these prices in his last four games, and gets a plus match-up with the Thunder here. The Thunder are a good match-up for opposing shooting guards in any circumstance, but Shai's absence should make this spot even better. Beal's a great play in any format.
Joe Ingles FD - $6300 DK - $6200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.18 DK - 35.1
It's hard not to like Ingles in this one given that Mitchell is already ruled out. Against these same Lakers Ingles dropped 20 points and 14 assists, though this comes with the disclaimer that he was largely running the point in Conley's absence. Conley will be back for this one, but Ingles should still get a lot more action with Mitchell shelved. Ingles won't have the upside he showed last game, but the floor should be plenty here.
Dillon Brooks is looking really under-valued in light of his recent hot streak.
Michael Porter Jr. FD - $7600 DK - $7700
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 39.55 DK - 41.94
Porter has slid into the role Nuggets die-hards were dreaming of, scoring 20+ points in 9 of his last 10 games as a veritable double-double machine. The normally stout Grizzlies are going to be in rough shape here, missing most of their size in the form of Jaren Jackson and Jonas Valanciunas. He's been paying 5x points per dollar on the regular, and I don't see any reason that stops tonight.
Patrick Williams FD - $4000 DK - $4600
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 22.81 DK - 22.94
This is a straightforward, good old-fashioned value play. Williams is playing a 27-29 minute rotations, and has topped 27+ FanDuel points in two of his last three games. His floor is almost 5x here, and there's upside for a lot more if he runs hot on the defensive end.
Also considered: Kyle Anderson.
Xavier Tillman Sr. FD - $3500 DK - $3400
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 23.4 DK - 22.54
With Valanciunas already ruled out, I'm assuming Tillman gets significant run here. Tillman has been fantastic on a points-per-minute basis recently, and if he is named the starter this is just a price and opportunity mismatch.
Trevor Ariza FD - $4300 DK - $5200
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 28.02 DK - 28.21
I'm not sure what more we could realistically ask for from Ariza recently. He seems relatively entrenched in the starting lineup right now, and has averaged 33 FanDuel points in his last two contests. It's a dream match-up against the hapless Rockets, and while Ariza is getting a little expensive on DraftKings this FanDuel price makes him nearly a must-play.
Also considered: Domantas Sabonis.
Bam Adebayo FD - $7700 DK - $8100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 45.96 DK - 47.4
Adebayo is coming fresh off an obliteration of the Nets' sad front-court, and things shouldn't get any more difficult here. The Rockets have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, and Bam is averaging better than 5x points per dollar on these prices this season. This is a great spot in any format, particularly if Butler winds up sitting again.
Also considered: Honestly, a lot of guys. Vucevic, Jokic, Embiid, and Allen are all great options today.