Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 4/20/21
If you're as addicted to fantasy as I am, you're surely in the playoffs of your season-long formats. That means you probably have a good idea of how crazy the NBA landscape is right now, with players resting way too regularly. I mean, what the hell are the Toronto Raptors doing? These guys are fighting for a playoff spot and sit their starters every night. There's no rhyme or reason to anything it seems like, especially with a month left in the season! That can make DFS tough for us, but it also leaves a ton of value out there as well!
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This is my favorite play of the day. With Brooklyn expected to miss James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Nicolas Claxton, Kyrie should be busier than ever here. With those guys off the floor, he has a usage rate flirting with 35 percent while averaging a ridiculous 1.6 DK points per minute. To put that in perspective, that'd equate to 48 fantasy points in just 30 minutes! We believe those 30 minutes are the floor, and it's even less surprising to see that when you see Irving's 47-point average over his last 13 games played. All of that doesn't even consider this tasty matchup, with the Pelicans surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Scary Terry has found himself in a beautiful role, and it's allowed him to become a fantasy monster. The Hornets are currently missing Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball, Devonte' Graham, and Malik Monk, leaving Rozier as the only frontcourt player left. That has led to the best stretch of his career, scoring at least 52 fantasy points in three straight games while falling just shy of a 60-point average in that stretch. That's a heck of a total from a player sitting around $8K, and it's hard to understand why he's not closer to $10,000 on both sites. Facing New York can be a tough cookie to crack, but Rozier should be plenty busy behind the 30 percent usage rate we've seen recently.
If you're looking for someone cheaper, Ricky Rubio has been good for a month now and gets to face the worst defense in the NBA.
With Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic both expected to miss this game, McCollum should be in for a heavy workload. With those two off the floor this season. C.J. has a 33 percent usage rate while averaging 1.2 DK points per minute. Those are actually below his career averages, providing nearly 40 fantasy points per game when Dame sits. That's actually right on par with his season average, and it looks even better with McCollum dropping at least 42 DK points in the last two games without Lillard. Los Angeles is definitely a tough matchup, but McCollum is averaging 40.4 DK points per game in their two meetings this year.
Bruce Brown FD - $4800 DK - $4900
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 22.22 DK - 21.79
Brown has been awesome when given the opportunity, and he should get all the minutes he can handle here. The Nets are missing Harden, Durant, and Claxton, which will likely force Brown into 30 minutes as a starter. If you look at the 22 games that BB has played at least 25 minutes, he's averaging over 28 fantasy points per game. That's all you can ask for from a sub-$5K player, and he did a lot of that damage with one of those guys in the lineup. The matchup only adds to his intrigue, with the Pelicans ranked 27th in defensive efficiency ratings while surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing SGs.
According to our projections, Dwayne Bacon is our best value at the position and could easily provide 5X value at this $4K price tag.
Norman Powell FD - $6200 DK - $6400
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 37.45 DK - 38.56
We already discussed how Portland would be without Lillard and Nurkic here, leaving Powell as one of the focal points of the offense. With those guys off the floor, Powell is posting a 24 percent usage rate. More importantly, he's played at least 38 minutes and taken at least 15 shots in every game without Lillard this year. If you look at the 15 games where he's played over 36 minutes, Powell is averaging a fantastic 38 fantasy points per game. That's exactly what our projections have him at, and that's a hell of a number from a player barely cracking $6K. He showed that he could exploit this tough matchup, too, dropping 39 DK points against the Clippers, with Lillard in the lineup two weeks back.
Joe Harris FD - $4600 DK - $5900
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 26.68 DK - 28.38
We've thoroughly discussed how Brooklyn will be without two of their superstars and that's big news for a sharpshooter like Harris. What it will do is give him more usage and more shot attempts. He's actually providing exactly one fantasy-point-per-minute with those guys off the floor, and if he does that here, we'd be looking at some amazing value. We say that because Harris is averaging 31 minutes a night which would project him for 30 DraftKings points. It could be even higher in a matchup like this, facing a putrid Pelicans defense that surrenders the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing SFs.
Jeff Green could be a sneaky pick for the Nets as well, with so many guys missing.
Julius Randle FD - $9400 DK - $10100
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 48.28 DK - 51.99
Many people were talking crap about Randle reaching the All-Star team, but those people need to eat their well-earned crow. Since then, this has been one of the best players in the NBA, scoring at least 42 DraftKings points in 11-straight games while generating an absurd 52-point average in that span. His last few games have been even more amazing, averaging 70 DK points per game over his last two outings. That makes it hard to believe that he's still below $10K on FanDuel, and this matchup is far from scary. The Hornets surrender the second-most fantasy points to opposing PFs and are likely to get stung again here.
Zion Williamson FD - $9800 DK - $9700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 48.32 DK - 48.5
Let's keep the big dogs rolling with Zion! This guy has been a complete spectacle in his sophomore season, proving to be one of the most dynamic youngsters to come into the league. Something has really clicked recently, with Zion averaging 46.3 DK points per game across his last 27 outings. That's not even that far off of his 44-point average for the season, and it's scary that this 20-year-old keeps getting better by the day. The best part of this matchup might be that he's facing Brooklyn, with the Nets ranked 26th in defensive efficiency while owning a 21st OPRK against opposing PFs.
Harrison Barnes has quietly had a nice season for the Kings and could have success against a terrible T'Wolves defense.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $10800 DK - $10600
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 50.7 DK - 53.58
If you're looking for a guaranteed 50 fantasy points, Towns is probably your go-to guy. Let's start by talking about the matchup, with the Kings owning the worst defensive rating in the NBA. That alone is scary, but they also surrender the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers as well. That's truly horrifying against a guy like KAT, with the big man in the midst of one of the best stretches of his career. In fact, Towns has at least 53 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 12 games, tallying a 54-point average in that stellar stretch. That's the stud we've seen at times throughout his career, and one of those happened to come against this horrid Kings defense.
Hassan Whiteside FD - $5400 DK - $5800
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 33.82 DK - 34
We wish that Whiteside's minutes would climb a little more, but he can still be a monster in 20 minutes of play. That's on full display when you see that he's averaging 19.5 DK points in just 14.6 minutes a night for the year. That absurd rate makes him very attractive with his minutes on the rise, averaging 32 DK points per game across 22 minutes over his last three games played. That's no surprise when you see that Richaun Holmes is out of the lineup, and if he gets another start as he did on Sunday, he's one of the best per-dollar plays on the board. We love that he faces a defensively-inept Towns as well, with Minnesota ranked 26th in total defense.
With Nicolas Claxton out, DeAndre Jordan could be looking at 30 minutes for the shorthanded Nets.