Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Saturday, 4/24/21
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With Donovan Mitchell out again this game we will have another chance to play Conley in cash. The last two games the Jazz have been in some blowouts which has buzzed off the starter’s minutes and that could definitely be the case again here versus that Timberwolves. But the usage uptick a guy like Conley sees with Mitchell off the court is worth the risk. He has the second-highest usage on the team (24%) when Donovan is off the court this season.
The Rockets are going to sit a bunch of guys on Saturday leaving a ton of minutes for the bench/ fill-in dudes. Brooks should see the start here at point guard and could play minutes in the very high 30s (or even more). He’s played 35 and 30 respectively over the last two though only scored six and nine points. But he shot poorly and also that was with other volume shooters like John Wall and Christian Wood in the mix. Those dudes aren’t playing here which should open up all kinds of opportunity for Brooks in the short term.
Joe Ingles FD - $6500 DK - $6600
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 33.22 DK - 35.17
Jordan Clarkson FD - $5900 DK - $6500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 29.86 DK - 31.53
There’s some multi-position eligibility with Ingles here on DraftKings, though you’ll need to slot him into small forward on FanDuel. But with Mitchell still out these two guys remain very good options. Ingles sees a definitive minutes increase when the Jazz are down any guard and the usage ticks up as well. As I said with Conley, the last couple of games have been blowouts for the Jazz so the minutes haven’t been all that robust. And we could be staring at that again, but it might still be worth the risk on Ingles even in this mid-$6K range.
Meanwhile, Clarkson has the highest usage rate on the team (30%) when Mitchell is off the court this season. He’s been among the best bench players in the league and the Jazz need him for his shot creation when they are down their superstar. The only concern is the aforementioned bench role with that sometimes causing reduced minutes if the games get weird. He isn’t on the court to start and sometimes he doesn’t close. That can lead to a tricky spot at these price points. It’s probably a bridge too far on DraftKings, but FanDuel this price is still reasonable enough.
Brandon Ingram FD - $8200 DK - $8800
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 41.19 DK - 42.55
The Pelicans have one of the highest implied totals on the slate going in and it might make sense to stack their big two in cash games on this slate. There will be plenty of savings elsewhere so fitting in the salaries isn’t going to be an issue at all. Ingram has been averaging 20 shots per game over this month with a line of 27 points, six assists, and five rebounds. The Spurs should offer too much in the way of resistance and this game could be up and down the court. Putting Ingram and Zion together in cash games and taking a high projected minutes floor is one of the safer options on this slate.
P.J. Dozier FD - $3900 DK - $4100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 25.97 DK - 25.94
With Will Barton going down on Friday night, Dozier got the start for the Nuggets in the second half and actually ended up playing 30 minutes and took 11 shots which is encouraging. He finished with nine points, five rebounds, and three steals, making for a fine play at these prices. I think the minutes should stick in this 30-ish range for this game and he projects to start with Barton doubtful for the game. We will have to monitor this situation leading into game time.
Zion Williamson FD - $9700 DK - $10100
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 47.84 DK - 48.03
In close games, the minutes training wheels are fully off for Zion who has pushed close to 40 when things are tight. The Pelicans very much need to win out on their schedule to get into the playoffs and even that might not be enough. But Zion, statistically, has been very good of late and really for the whole season. Over the course of April, he’s putting up 29 points and seven rebounds with the assist rate ticking up since the beginning of the year now that more of the offense runs through him.
Kenyon Martin Jr. FD - $3600 DK - $3600
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 27.2 DK - 25.98
I’m expecting him to get the start for the Rockets on Saturday, or at worst, play a ton of minutes for a team that is playing with a skeleton crew. He’s been getting solid minutes off the bench for this team anyway and with Wall and Wood out they are going to need any warm body to step up and play. The DraftKings price is great and he’d be a near-lock if in the starting lineup. The FanDuel price is right there as well and we just need to wait to hope and get the Rockets’ starting lineup ahead of lock.
Nikola Jokic FD - $11400 DK - $10900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 60.68 DK - 63.05
The injury bug has hit the Nuggets recently with Jamal Murray lost for the season and Will Barton going down as well on Friday night. That’s left more of the scoring load on Jokic who the team will rely on even more (if possible) on offense. The Nuggets got blown out by the Warriors on Friday meaning he didn’t run too much on the front end of the back-to-back. There’s blowout concern in this game as well with the Rockets playing with a skeleton crew. But there is also a lot of cheap potential value on this slate meaning we need to take the payups even with the risk.
Rudy Gobert FD - $8300 DK - $8400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 48.56 DK - 48
All of the Jazz? You got it. This game could turn ugly quick but before it happens, who is going to keep Gobert off the glass? Kelly Olynyk? He is in a fantastic spot against a compromised frontcourt for the Rockets. This is a situation to probably go double center on DraftKings with Gobert and Jokic and take nearly-assuredly double-doubles and high floors. For FanDuel, I prefer Jokic obviously but on DraftKings let’s run both out there.