Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday 4/29/21
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Steph's MVP campaign took a hit in a blowout loss to the Mavs, but he should be back with guns blazing in a great spot against the Timberwolves. This game has the highest total on the slate, and the Wolves really don't bring a single guy to even attempt to cover Curry. Minnesota has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and we should prepare ourselves for a monster performance here.
This one is a straight-up old-fashioned value play. Lowry is priced like he's going to play 29 minutes a game, but the 37 minutes he played last game tips the Raptors' hand: Lowry is back for his full run. He's averaged almost 6x points per dollar on these prices for the season, making him in play against all but the very best opposing defenses. The Nuggets are solid, but are thin enough in the backcourt that Lowry should have plenty of room to operate.
Also considered: Malcolm Brogdon.
Revenge game? Yes, but that's not why we're actually pushing Wiggins here. The reality is that he's been rolling out 5x points per dollar performances game in, game out, and has a terrific match-up against his hapless former team. The Timberwolves have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season, and if the Wolves manage to keep it close Wiggins should have a great game here.
Landry Shamet FD - $4100 DK - $4100
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 22.44 DK - 23.79
With Brown already ruled out of Thursday's game, Shamet should be in line for the 32-36 minute rotation we've become accustomed to in close games. He's not immune to the occasional stinker, but he's also got 8x+ upside, as he demonstrated against the Heat two weeks ago. Yes, Durant's return will take away from his three-point opportunities, but this is still a lot of minutes for a guy priced near $4,000.
Oshae Brissett FD - $6800 DK - $5300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 34.43 DK - 33.89
Far from a household name at the beginning of this season, Brissett has vaulted into the DFS consciousness after one of the better out-of-nowhere runs in recent memory. The Pacers aren't messing around with this guy - he led the team with 39 minutes against the Blazers en route to his second 50+ FanDuel point performance since joining the starting lineup. Brooklyn is a lot of things, but they aren't a tough defensive match-up, and Brissett should be great not just on DraftKings (where the price is a joke) but on FanDuel as well.
Kent Bazemore FD - $5300 DK - $3900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 29.71 DK - 29.1
With Oubre doubtful for Thursday's game and Bazemore returning from his own absence (which was due to the health protocols), we have a nice opportunity play brewing. The DrafKings price is ridiculous, but our system even likes him on FanDuel in a match-up this great. While seeing the two teams might inspire blowout concerns, Vegas sees this as just a 5.5 point game, and I won't shy away from running players on either side.
Also considered: OG Anunoby and KD.
Zion Williamson FD - $9400 DK - $9800
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 48.2 DK - 48.57
I'm frankly not excited to play Zion at prices like these in normal match-ups, but there are a few factors working in his favor tonight. First of all, the Thunder are just god awful against opposing power forwards. They rank dead last in every defensive metric against PFs, and have allowed the most fantasy points per game to them. The second major thing is the lack of depth at the position. Every reasonable option besides Zion has significant game script issues, and I think we can at least count on Zion's floor.
If the Milwaukee-Houston game stays close both Giannis and Christian Wood could be fantastic plays.
Also considered: Isaiah Stewart, though it's tough to trust the Detroit minutes with how badly they should lose with both Plumlee and Grant out.
If you're just trying to farm a reasonable floor, Pascal Siakam is probably playable (if expensive).
Nikola Jokic FD - $10900 DK - $10900
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 60.03 DK - 62.71
Jokic has become a nightly staple in these articles as he attempts to drag the Nuggets into the playoffs in the West. His resume speaks for itself, but it's worth highlighting the match-up here. The Raptors are currently without a player over 6 foot 9, and I'm just not sure how they can even attempt to keep pace with Jokic's play making ability. You'll need to find savings elsewhere (which might be difficult to do in a safe way), but Jokic is the premier pay-up option tonight.
Also considered: Towns should have his way with the under-sized Warriors front-court.
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- Stephen Curry: AP Images