Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/2/21
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Scherzer has started this season as his usual, dominant self. He’s striking out 11.4 batters per nine and has a better than 6:1 K:BB ratio. He’s facing a weaker Miami offense on Sunday though the money line isn’t all that great (-121) because Rogers is taking the mound for the Marlins. This is still a spot to spend up for Scherzer who is the best arm on the slate. It will cost you on FanDuel, but the floor is just so high for what he provides. The DraftKings price is simply too low at sub-$10K and I think the call is pretty easy over there.
Berrios has come out of the gate firing to start the season with a 32% K-rate that’s the highest of his career so far. The 2.96 xFIP is elite and he’s just rounding into one of the best pitchers in the game. The Royals are a below-average offense to start the season and it’s hard to imagine them improving much as the year wears on. Berrios at a -171 home favorite looks like a great cash game play.
Toronto is once again not exactly sure who their starter is about 12 hours before the game starts which always bodes well for the opposing hitters. Like Saturday, it’s going to be some scrub that’s in line to get lit up. We are going to be able to safely stack the Braves bats once again without much hesitation. Guys like Freeman will cost, but man the floor is just so high considering he walks more than he strikes out and hits for tremendous power.
Votto is starting to find some of the power that had eluded him a couple of years ago. But over his last 300 or so plate appearances dating back to last season, he’s cranked 16 home runs and improved his ISO considerably since 2019. He’s not going to return to his .900 OPS days, but he’s also not priced like that on FanDuel. He’s coming way too cheap there against an average arm in Williams in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball.
For the time being it looks like Arroyo is going to be the Red Sox leadoff hitter. He’s held that spot over the last two games and it should be the case again on Sunday. He’s got a mid-.700s OPS on the season so far though doesn’t take many walks which isn’t in line with a typical leadoff hitter profile. But we’ll take what we can get here and he’s coming way too cheap if he’s hitting at the top of this lineup for this offense.
Happy qualifies at 2B on FanDuel where he’s coming at a bargain and he’s a value on DraftKings as well. He’s running super bad on the BABIP this season at .209 though he still profiles as a high floor bat. He’s walking 16% of the time this season though struggling in nearly every other facet of the game. Most of it is in the bad luck department which is why we are buying so low here. Mahle isn’t as good as the sub-2.00 ERA would suggest with an xFIP more than 1.5 runs higher. This is a great hitter’s park and Happ is simply too cheap.
Corey Seager FD - SS 3600 DK - SS 4600
Opponent - MIL (Undecided) Park - MIL
FD - 11.32 DK - 8.54
Much like the Blue Jays, the Brewers haven’t yet announced their starter for Sunday which is going to leave the Dodgers in a spot to put up runs. Seager still remains one of the better offensive shortstops in baseball and this season has an OPS over .800. That’s actually down a little from his career average, but he’s also about 30 points low on the BABIP as well. He’s still walking 11% of the time and very tough to K at 16%. As long as this isn’t a lefty on the mound for Milwaukee then this a great time to roster Seager.
Dansby Swanson FD - SS 2500 DK - SS 3700
Opponent - TOR (Undecided) Park - TOR
FD - 8.7 DK - 6.6
If we are stacking the Braves again then I think you can go a little further down in the lineup and get Swanson on the cheap. Swanson’s OPS is on the lower side this season but his BABIP is almost 50 points lower than his career average as well. His HR/FB ratio is also down a few percentage points compared to the last couple of seasons as well. So there is room for upside on his prices if you think he is running bad on the season.
Devers is absolutely crushing the ball this season with a .976 OPS so far and he’s looking once again like one of the best young hitters in the game. It’s a great sign for where his game is progressing and he’s showing much more patience at the plate as well. He has seven home runs already, but the walk rate is also over 10%. He’s just becoming a complete hitter and hitting in the middle of the order for the Red Sox will once again have him in a good spot on Sunday.
Speaking of guys who are right back to their superstar selves, Bryant has been among the best hitters in all of baseball so far this season. After a very rough 2020, the dude is straight crushing this season with seven home runs in his first 100 plate appearances which has helped land him with a 1.079 OPS. He’s in a great hitter’s park against mediocre arm in Mahle. The price is too cheap on DraftKings right now.
Aaron Judge FD - OF 3900 DK - OF 5600
Opponent - DET (JosÃ© UreÃ±a) Park - NYY
FD - 14.79 DK - 10.94
I think it’s reasonable to stack all three Yankee’s outfielders on Sunday in this matchup against Urena. The first two are very expensive and for good reason. Judge has come out the start the season once again putting up monster numbers. Strikeouts have long since been his biggest weakness, but he’s improved on them this season even has the walk rate up to almost 16%. Against Urena who doesn’t dial up the K’s, this is a perfect spot for the slugger.
Meanwhile, Stanton got the day off on Saturday, but that looks like it was just a rest day. He hasn’t been as patient as Judge, but also has seven home runs this season through his first 100 plate appearances. He’s striking out at a high rate like usual, but that’s not much of a concern against Urena either. He’s coming at totally reasonable prices.
And finally, if looking for a cheaper bat, Hicks could fit the bill. He’s hitting 6th in the Yankees’ lineup but is coming at near punt prices on both sites. He’s running so, so bad in the BABIP department at just .155 which is more than 100 points lower than his career average. He isn’t a great hitter, but he’s also not this bad and is in a great park against a weaker arm.