Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 5/4/21
We're down to the final two weeks of the regular season! There's still a lot to be decided, and it'll be fascinating to see what happens over these final 13 days. The good news is that we still have many teams in contention, which makes things a little easier on us. There are still some bad eggs out there, though, and those teams can be impossible to predict. That's why we're going to try to avoid the bad teams, and bank on guys who we know will play. With that in mind, let's get into it!
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This pricing is insane. It's obviously dropped a lot because Ball was out for so long, but this dude was hovering between $8-9K before his injury. It's easy to see why when you look at his numbers, averaging 37 fantasy points per game since a disappointing opening week. He's pretty much been that guy since his return, scoring 36 DraftKings points in back-to-back games in that span. That makes it hard to believe he remains so cheap, especially considering that he looks ready for a full workload after a 30-minute game over the weekend. The matchup with Detroit is dandy, too, with Ball dropping 36 DK points in this matchup last week.
This is my favorite play of the day! It looks like the Kings will be missing De'Aaron Fox, Tyler Haliburton, and Harrison Barnes, likely forcing Wright into a start and 35 minutes of play. He's actually got a 26 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor and is averaging 1.25 DK points per minute in this role. That's the stud we saw in Detroit, with Wright averaging nearly 35 fantasy points per game as their starting point guard. This expanded role is big news for a stat-stuffing machine like this, especially with the Thunder owning one of the worst defenses in the NBA since going into tank mode.
Stephen Curry just had 41 points and eight assists against the Pelicans on Monday and could do similar things here.
It was nearly impossible to pick shooting guards on this slate, so let's ride a reliable guy like Booker. We say he's reliable because of his floor, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in 40 of his last 43 games. That's some amazing consistency, especially when you see his 40-point average in that span. That makes him one of the best bets at the weakest position, and there's something to be said about getting that guaranteed 30-40 fantasy points when you're unsure. A matchup against Cleveland only makes him more convincing, with the Cavs ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Hamidou Diallo FD - $4000 DK - $4000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 25.7 DK - 25.48
Diallo has always been a fantasy-relevant player when given the opportunity, and a rare start on Monday is hopefully a sign of things to come. He played 26 minutes in that game, providing 16 points and seven rebounds. That's the guy we've seen in the past, with Hamidou averaging 35 fantasy points per game in his six starts this season. He's also averaging 33 DraftKings points per game in the 18 games he's played at least 24 minutes, and we expect that to be the case here if he gets the nod again. That makes it hard to believe he's only $4K and we love the fact that Charlotte owns a 30th OPRK against opposing wings.
Charlie Brown is not only one of the most famous cartoon characters, but he's also playing basketball for OKC. Jokes aside, he played 27 minutes on Sunday and could be a nice GPP play at a minimum price.
Brandon Ingram FD - $7300 DK - $7900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 39.72 DK - 41.4
Ingram has become one of the most underrated players in the NBA. We say that because he's a near guarantee for 30-40 fantasy points, posting a 40-point average for the season. A small slump has lowered his price below $8K on both sites, and that's hard to believe when you look at that aforementioned season average. The reason we want to ride him today is the matchup, though, with Golden State ranked 21st in total defense while playing at the third-fastest pace in the NBA. He struggled against them on Monday, but we can't imagine that happening two nights in a row.
Buddy Hield FD - $7000 DK - $7300
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 32.98 DK - 34.99
We already talked about how shorthanded the Kings are, and it's forced Buddy into a playmaking role. He's always been a sharpshooter but for him to be handling the ball so much more with these guys out makes him all the more attractive. This expanded role has led to Hield scoring at least 42 DK points in four of his last six games, posting a 38-point average in that span. That's a fantastic total from a guy sitting around $7K, and we're obviously not worried about the opposition. Oklahoma City ranks 27th in points allowed while surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing SFs.
Kent Bazemore has been starting for Golden State recently and is averaging nearly 30 DK points per game in this expanded role.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11400 DK - $10700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 59.8 DK - 61.8
If we had to set odds for the highest-scoring player on the slate, Giannis would have to be our lowest odds player. The reason for that is his ridiculous recent form, scoring at least 58 fantasy points in five straight games. His most recent outing was the most absurd, dropping 75 DraftKings points on this bad Brooklyn defense. A performance like that from a player like this is no surprise because he always wants to show out against the other elite teams. We love all of that with the Nets ranked 26th in defensive efficiency.
Marvin Bagley III (FD $5500 DK $5000)
It feels weird that we're going right back to the well on Bagley with him just returning, but he's in quite the spot here. We already mentioned all of the guys out for Sacramento, and eliminating Hassan Whiteside from the rotation has made Bagley a beast once again. In his most recent game, Bagley played 34 minutes, dropping 40.3 DraftKings points in one of his best games of the year. That's the top pick we've been waiting to see, and this expanded role might be the thing he needs to finish the season strong. We also don't mind that OKC owns a 23rd OPRK against opposing power forwards either.
P.J. Washington has been brilliant for Charlotte recently with his move to center and remains way too cheap.
Richaun Holmes FD - $6600 DK - $6300
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 22.84 DK - 22.05
Holmes will complete our Sacramento stack, and we truly feel like all of these guys are good plays. The simple fact is, there's so much usage and minutes out of the lineup with Fox, Barnes, and Haliburton all out, forcing all of these guys into huge roles. Holmes might actually be the best value of the bunch because he's been playing at a $7K level throughout most of the year. In fact, Holmes is averaging 33 DraftKings points per game for the year and has scored at least 38 fantasy points 22 times! That's tough to find from someone in this price range, particularly with OKC surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Willy Hernangomez FD - $4900 DK - $5100
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 29.2 DK - 30.71
Hernangomez has been really good whenever he's been asked to start for Steven Adams, and we expect that to be the case here with the Kiwi sitting out on Monday. In his six starts at center this year, Willy has scored at least 22 fantasy points in all of them en route to a 29-point average. That's right on par with our projections, and it makes it hard to understand why he remains around $5,000 on both sites. Facing the Warriors only adds to his intrigue, with Golden State playing at that blistering pace we mentioned before while having one of the worst center rotations in the NBA.
It's super risky, but Moses Brown has 15-15 potential at just $5K.