Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – AT&T Byron Nelson
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TPC Craig Ranch
Par 72 - 7,468 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
This week the PGA Tour heads to Texas and TPC Craig Ranch for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson. Compared to previous years, it has a fairly strong field led by Jon Rahm(#3) and Bryson DeChambeau(#4). The event also moves to a new location and you may not have heard of the course(I know I haven't) as its previous PGA exposure was the now Korn Ferry Tour(Web.com then) finals in 2012 and 2008.
One thing is clear when looking at the scorecard. This course is a beast listed at over 7,400 yards and features another set of tough Par 4's with six over 450 yards and three over 480 yards. The Par 3's are no walk in park either as three of the four are over 215 yards. In going through the flyover of TPC Craig ranch, we can see the very forgiving fairways that the players have mentioned in interviews and also the large green complexes. This would suggest we may see a birdie fest for the bombers or those who are spot on with their long irons but there is still one defense we haven't talked about. The wind!
Thursday looks great and very consistent 5-8 mph winds all day but Friday is where it gets a bit interesting. The early tee times(Friday) may have an advantage here as winds pick up around the time the second wave heads out for their rounds. It won't be something I use in a model, by any means, but will come more into play when deciding between player A and Player B. It will especially come into play for the Friday showdown so stay tuned for updates.
For my model this week, with no course history, I am leaning heavily on current form and stats. In that stats model, I am looking at a combination of Driving Distance and Proximity from the long iron ranges of 175-200 and 200+ yards. The driving distance isn't necessarily at the top of my list but if targeting players who are not considered bombers or haven't been gaining strokes off the tee, make sure they are rock solid with their long irons. The Par 4's look to be the biggest challenge so I will also be looking at the trends in Par 4 Scoring, as well, as I feel that is where players can really separate themselves from the field. As always, Birdie or Better % is high in my model with it;s strong correlation to fantasy scoring.
With all of that said, let's get into the picks.
Top Tier Targets
he came up a bit short in making value last week as one of my top plays but still finished with his 6th Top 10 in 11 starts this season. What stands out the most is that his price only climbed $200 on DraftKings this week despite a much worse field. He fully fits the narrative of bomber(#1 on Tour in distance) and also backs it up with a #1 rank on my sheet in Proximity from 200+ yards and #1 in Birdie or Better %. He is my favorite play in the top tier and pick to win this week.
There is a strong chance Zalatoris and Scheffler top the ownership this week with their ties to TPC Craig Ranch and Texas in general. While I will have exposure to both, I am leaning Scheffler who comes in with a bit better form. he has made six of his last seven cuts with two Top 10's and four Top 25's dating back to the WMPO and has gained strokes on approach in six of them. Looking at his recent stat trends, he is 11th in driving distance gained, 20th in SG: Approach, 7th in Par 4 scoring, and 7th in Birdie or Better %. Fire up Scheffler in all formats and I also like an outright bet on him this week.
Mid Tier Targets
These picks of non-PGA Tour players are always interesting and a bit risky but Pieters checks way too many boxes to ignore this week. He has played three stroke-play events on the PGA Tour this season, finishing Top 25 in all three, and also has back-to-back Top 15 finishes on the European Tour. He is averaging almost 310 yards off the tee on the Euro Tour and is also Top 25 in Driving Accuracy so if the irons are on, he could shatter his value at these prices. He is likely going to be high-owned but will most definitely be a part of my GPP player pool.
World Golf Ranking (#156)
Vegas Odds (56/1)
Another bomber in the mid-tier that draws my attention is Killer Keith. Ya it maybe feels a bit like chasing after his tremendous outing last week at the Wells Fargo where he gained a whopping 7.4 strokes off the tee and another 4.7 on approach. If not for losing 2.9 around the green, he may have taken home the hardware. Zooming out a bit further, he has made the cut in four straight and five of his last six on the back of some excellent ball striking and putting. In a weaker field, I have no issues paying a season-high price tag for Mitchell.
World Golf Ranking (#384)
Vegas Odds (225/1)
If you are loading up on Bryson this week like me, you are going to need some value if you are wanting a piece of any other players at or near the top of the field. I have a few on my list this week but Vincent Whaley may be my favorite. He has been extremely consistent for his price recently making eight straight cuts including three straight inside the Top 30. Statistically, he hasn't stood out in any one area but has been solid across the board and can provide upside when he puts it together for all four days. he is my top value and I would even consider him in cash games if wanting to go all the way up to Bryson.