Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/12/21
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
Cole is coming off a somewhat of an odd start for him as he only struck out four but even giving up two earned runs, he wasn't a complete lineup killer, especially considering the high ownership. Outside of that one start, he has been elite once again this year coming in with a 1.61 ERA/2.10 xFIP and is striking out just over 40% of batters he faces. He now gets a plus matchup vs. the Rays who are striking out over 27% of the time including 10 vs. Cole in their first meeting. Cole is easily the top pitcher in all formats tonight.
There are multiple for SP2 on DraftKings or as GPP pivots off Cole and his monster price tag on FanDuel and for me, it starts with Danny Duffy. He has been terrific this season holding opponents to three or fewer earned runs in all six starts and one or fewer in five of those. He can get into trouble at times with the walks but has gotten out of it squeaky clean with a 28% K rate. While the Tigers have been better as of late, they rank dead last against lefties with a .217 wOBA, 36 wRC+, and 35% K rate!! All things considered, he is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings and a low-owned GPP play on FanDuel.
The Dodgers go from #2 in my stack ranks last night to #1 tonight as they face another struggling Mariners pitcher. Tonight, it's Justin Dunn on the bump and he has already walked a shocking 17 batters in five starts and has an xFIP(6.20) that is nearly three runs higher than his ERA(3.51) coming into tonight. I like the Dodgers as a whole but will be focusing on the lefties in this article as Dunn has really struggled in the split. Muncy can be streaky and is probably too expensive for cash on DraftKings but FanDuel has the Dodgers underpriced putting them in play in all formats.
Many people(including myself) felt the post-scandal Astros, who are also now without George Springer, were going to lose a ton of production. Boy was I wrong as they sit second in runs scored on the season and lead the majors in wRC+(115). A lot of that production has come from Yuli Gurriel who is off to a career-best start with an elite .414 wOBA and 175 wRC+ through his first 34 games. While the matchup is only slightly above average, Yuli crushes lefties and is in play in all formats.
The price is starting to creep back up for Marcus Semien but it is completely justified here as he has been red-hot at the top of the Jays lineup. He comes in with hits in 10 straight games including four multi-hit efforts for an average of over 11 DK/16 FD points per game. On the season, he has been better vs. lefties but has still been better than average vs. southpaws with a 115 wRC+ and .212 ISO so I am in on Semien in all formats in a plus matchup vs. Max Fried.
Segura picked up right where he left off before the trip to the IL(quad injury) going 8 for 18 in the four games since his return. That pushes his average up over .350 for the season to go along with an elite .371 wOBA and 134 wRC+ but what I like most is that he has been hitting in the two-hole ahead of Bryce Harper. He comes at a very affordable price on both sites and gets a slightly above-average matchup. He is in play in all formats.
The Dodgers are my top team to target and I also mentioned my love for the left-handed bats as Just Dunn has given up all three home runs in the split combined with a 1.85 WHIP. For Seager, he went into Tuesday's game with back-to-back three-hit games and comes in with a .357 wOBA and 130 wRC+. Dunn puts a lot of people on base so the top of the order should get the best shot at cashing in for DFS tonight.
If you can't quite get up to Corey Seager at shortstop, there are a few mid-tier options that catch my eye. Miguel Rojas is one of them and it starts with his consistency this season as he enters tonight with hits in seven straight starts and owns a .357 wOBA and 131 wRC+ on the season. That consistency has also earned him a move up to the top of the Marlins lineup yet the sites have yet to fully adjust. I am not fully on stacking the Marlins but Rojas is an excellent PTS/$ value for cash games.
The Astros are an interesting team to target tonight as they face a pitcher on a complete roller coaster ride. Heaney has looked dominant at times like he did in his last meeting vs. these Astros but he also has issues with control at times and can give up the long ball, especially to right-handed bats. That's where Bregman comes in as he is off to a great start this season with a .313/.374/.500 slash line and while the power is slowly coming along(5 HR) he has already driven in 19 runs and scored 20 more. From a raw points perspective, Bregman is my top play at third tonight.
Gio Urshela FD - 3B 2600 DK - 3B 4300
Opponent - TB (Ryan Yarbrough) Park - TB
FD - 8.44 DK - 6.46
Urshela missed a few days with a knee issue but returned to the lineup yesterday and promptly extended his hit streak to six games. He has been a consistent bat in the middle of the Yankees lineup all season and like we have mentioned countless times, he comes underpriced especially on FanDuel in the mid $2K range. Hitting cleanup behind Stanton and Judge is a prime spot and that alone warrants a roster spot and combine that with the huge value and he is right at the top of my PTS/$ value rankings tonight.
Randal Grichuk FD - OF 2800 DK - OF 4200
Opponent - ATL (Max Fried) Park - ATL
FD - 10.12 DK - 7.63
Teoscar Hernández FD - OF 3100 DK - OF 3700
Opponent - ATL (Max Fried) Park - ATL
FD - 10.8 DK - 8.12
I talked about Semien at second and love the Jays bats tonight against Max Fried and his 8.42 ERA. He has been getting crushed by BABIP(.460) so the positive regression we started to see last game should continue but he has yet to go more than five innings and the Braves have one of the worst bullpens in baseball so I am not too concerned.
The two jays who really stand out tonight are both in the outfield and for different reasons. Let's start with Grichuk who has been a huge part of the offense with George Springer limited to just four games so far. He entered Tuesday's game with a 129 wRC+ with six home runs and has crushed lefty pitching to the tune of a .455 wOBA, 196 wRC+, and .290 ISO. For Teoscar, he is also slightly above-average vs. lefties(.331 wOBA/112 wRC+) but stands out much more with his form as he has hits in nine of his last 11 with five multi-RBI games. At their prices both Jays outfielders are in play in all formats for me tonight.
Kyle Garlick FD - OF 2800 DK - OF 3000
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - CHW
FD - 9.13 DK - 6.88
Fitting Gerrit Cole at pitcher with a couple of big bats is not as hard with value plays like Kyle Garlick. He came into the season with just 76 plate appearances over his first two season with two separate teams(LAD/PHI) and is now finally get some regular playing time. He is also making the most of it as he went into Tuesday with a four-game hit streak pushing his average over .300 for the season(46 plate appearances). What stands out the most is that he has been great against lefties and is projected to leadoff tonight. At these prices, he is my top PTS/$ value and in play in all formats.