Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday, 5/13/21
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Man, I'm just thrilled to be able to lock Campazzo into a PG slot and build around him. The Nuggets' young point guard is a real dealer - go search Twitter for his highlight clips if you'd like - and the Nuggets are trusting him with the reins out of necessity at the moment. As a starter in the last two weeks he's hit 7x twice and 9x three times. The floor and ceiling are both outrageous against the Timberwolves, who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
With basically the entire Raptors team ruled out for Thursday, we get the chance to run Malachi Flynn as close to a one-man band. He's paid nearly 6x points per dollar in each of his last two games, and the Raptors are even thinner tonight than they were then. It's a league-average match-up, but this is a straight-up price and opportunity mismatch that we're happy to take advantage of.
Also considered: Ben Simmons.
Now if this isn't a marquee match-up, I'm not sure what is. The Trail Blazers are battling tooth and nail to stay out of the play-in game, and the Suns are battling for the #1 seed. Great stuff. Booker has been solid on these prices all season, and has been cresting toward 39-40 minute rotations as the Suns stay hungry down the stretch. Portland, meanwhile, will be on the second half of a back-to-back after facing the actual #1 seed Jazz on Wednesday. I love Booker as a cash game option here.
Kevin Huerter FD - $4300 DK - $4700
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 25.6 DK - 25.96
This price is just a straight up mistake, right? Huerter is no longer injured, and the May 10th Wizards game shows us that he's still playing a 36 minute rotation in close games. So what gives? This is a guy who's basically averaged 6x points per dollar on these prices throughout the season, and while that came over a number of different situations, I'm not going to be scared off of running him against this woeful Magic team. If Huerter winds up missing lineups, it's only because there are likely to be so many even better value plays that present themselves (that we can't know of while writing these articles before lineup lock news).
Also considered: Paul George, if you wind up finding savings elsewhere.
Kawhi Leonard FD - $8200 DK - $8400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 43.08 DK - 43.33
Okay, this price is just too low for a player of Kawhi's pedigree. He'd been missing for nearly a month, and his price remains low on concerns that the Clippers were going to ease him back into things. The Clips haven't played many close games since his return, but in the last one against the Knicks he got 36 minutes of run and dropped 40 fantasy points. The Clips are 8 point favorites in this one, but that's not blowout territory for me just yet. The Hornets are a dream match-up, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. I love Kawhi as a pay-up option at midrange prices.
Michael Porter Jr. FD - $7400 DK - $8600
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 38.76 DK - 39.67
While Porter's DraftKings price is getting a bit rich for my blood, the FanDuel price sure looks like their pricing algorithm is asleep at the wheel. Porter has paid this FanDuel price in 9 straight games where he got his full run of minutes, and with the Nuggets as just 6 point favorites this one rates to be plenty close. And did I mention the match-up? The Timberwolves have allowed the very most FanDuel points to opposing small forwards this year. Porter is close to a lock on FanDuel.
Also considered: Mikal Bridges.
Julius Randle FD - $9000 DK - $9400
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 47.33 DK - 51.11
So power forward is actually pretty deep, but with all the value I think you're going to want to consider paying up for Randle. With a lot of teams taking it easy as we approach the playoffs, Thibs and the Knicks are very much not. Randle is coming off of playing 43 minutes against the Lakers, as he continues his push to make an All-NBA team. On a slate lacking a lot of clear cut superstar plays, I'm happy to run Randle in cash games. His consistent minutes leave his big tournament upside lacking, though.
Aaron Gordon FD - $3900 DK - $5100
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 28.31 DK - 28.61
Soooo, $3,900 on FanDuel? I'm not even going to dignify this with a proper writeup. Just play him.
Also considered: Tobias Harris.
Chimezie Metu FD - $4200 DK - $4100
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 27.54 DK - 27.1
Richaun Holmes FD - $6100 DK - $6900
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 37.68 DK - 36.4
With Bagley doubtful for Thursday's game, Sacramento presents us with two viable center options today! Holmes' resume is well-documented by now, and he's been showing up in cash game lineups all season. Metu is a new addition to these articles for me, but you can't complain with the 7x+ points per dollar he has supplied out of the starting lineup. This match-up might get even sweeter if Valanciunas winds up missing again, so stay tuned.
Also considered: Bam, if Embiid sits.