Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/19/21
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We are blessed with some big-name pitching again tonight but there are two that stand out and it starts with Corbin Burnes. While the record has not been in his favor, it is almost completely on the lack of offense as Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with an elite 1.57 ERA and he backs that up with an even better xFIP(1.25). Then there is the upside as he enters the 58 strikeouts(45.3% K rate) and just that one walk. He also gets a plus matchup vs. a Royals team that ranks outside the Top 20 in wOBA(.301) ad wRC+(91) on the season and outside the Top 25 in those categories over the last two weeks. All things considered, Burnes is my top pitcher in all formats.
As of writing this, the system has Flaherty slightly ahead of Burnes in terms of projection and it has to do with a combination of the Cardinals sitting as a bigger favorite(-201) in a game with a lower total(7.0). Flaherty has also been terrific lately holding opponents to one or fewer earned runs in five of his last seven starts and since that opening day blunder, he has tallied an elite 1.47 ERA. Like Burnes, Flaherty and the Cards also get a plus matchup vs. the Pirates who ranked 28th in wOBA(.290) and wRC+(83) on the season and produce runs 15% below league average vs. righties. On FanDuel, I can't ignore the $300 discount with Burnes but on DraftKings, Flaherty is easily a top PTS.$ play on this slate.
Here is what I wrote about Muncy yesterday before Kelly was pushed back:
After somewhat of a slump, the Dodgers offense looks to be heating back up as they are averaging over 5.5 runs per game over the last 10 days. Muncy has been a big part of that as he has hits in eight of those 10 games with five multi-hit efforts, five home runs, and 12 RBI. He and the Dodgers now get one of the best matchups on the board facing Merrill Kelly who owns an ugly 1.46 WHIP thanks to 11 walks and 21 hits over his last four starts. Muncy is my top pay-up option at first base tonight.
Even more good news as Muncy's price has dropped on both sites since yesterday. Lock and load!
If you are looking for value at the position, look no further than Goldy who may be struggling a bit out of the gate but is definitely underpriced on DraftKings as the 13th most expensive first baseman. While that average has yet to get over the .250 mark, Goldy has 20+ RBI and runs scored and went into Tuesday night with hits in eight straight games. He and the Cards face Trevor Cahill who is much worse against lefties but I just can't ignore the season-low price on Goldy on DraftKings putting him in play in all formats.
I mentioned above that Cahill is best targeted with left-handed bats(.418 wOBA against LH) and that brings us to Goldy's teammate and the Cards leadoff hitter, Tommy Edman. He relies heavily on contact as he doesn't walk a lot which does take away some of the consistency we look for in a cash game play but the price is right, especially on FanDuel to consider it and if stacking Cards he is a great salary saver that hits in front of a couple huge upside bats.
Jazz Chisholm FD - 2B 3200 DK - 4800
Opponent - PHI (Zach Eflin) Park - PHI
FD - 9.74 DK - 7.7
It appears we don't have to worry about Chisholm's hamstring which forced him on the IL for over two weeks as he has returned and put up back-to-back multi-hit games and stole his 8th base. He went into Tuesday night with a .392 wOBA and 153 wRC+ which is not only among the rookie leaders but is also among the top players in the game. The matchup also fits here as Zach Eflin has a sizeable split gap and has been much worse against lefties. The price tag is high but so is the floor putting Chisholm in play in all formats.
Back in his regular spot as my top shortstop, at least on FanDuel, is Xander Bogaerts. I have been beating this drum all season and won't stop until he is priced correctly as he comes in with the 4th best average(.342) and backs it up with an elite .388 wOBA, 174 wRC+ and don't forget about the power as he comes in with a .258 ISO. He and the Red Sox also get a plus matchup against Ross Stripling who has given up 28 hits and four home runs in his first five starts. At his DK price, he is a GPP only play for me but in play in all formats on FanDuel.
That's right. Multiple Marlins bats in the article today and it really comes down to consistency. While the rest of the offense has been hit or miss, to say the least, Chisholm and Rojas have been a consistent piece of the puzzle and Rojas enters the night hitting .290 with a .356 wOBA and 130 wRC+. This game has a lower scoring total and their prices are a bit high on DraftKings for me to use in cash games but on FanDuel they are an excellent 1-2 punch in cash and then add 3-4 hitters for a low owned GPP stack.
As you can probably already tell, the Cards are right near the top of my list of teams to target tonight and if you are joining me there is no way we can leave out Arenado. He is in MVP form at the moment as he enters the night with home runs in four straight and hits in 13 of his last 14 games pushing his average up over .300 and wOBA up over .400 on the season. With that kind of production, you would think he would be the most expensive player on the slate but is 2nd and 5th most expensive at the position on FanDuel and DraftKings. That means we are firing him up in all formats tonight.
Gio Urshela FD - 3B 2500 DK - 4800
Opponent - TEX (Undecided) Park - TEX
FD - 9.67 DK - 7.23
Urshela continues to be one of the top value plays on FanDuel as they refuse to raise his price. I won't tell sit here and tell you he is a top-tier play but how do you argue with a player who is hitting .288 with 22 RBI, hitting cleanup for the Yankees who are among the Top 5 in implied runs almost every day. The other part of it that almost forces me to use him daily, at least in cash games is that on FanDuel, we get th utility spot which doesn't force us to remove a top play at the position(Arenado) out of our lineup to fit Urshela. You know what to do here.
Mitch Haniger FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 10.88 DK - 8.2
The Mariners will be looking to rebound a night after being no-hit and it starts at the top of the lineup. Haniger has slipped to second with eh call-up of top prospect Jarred Kelenic but hasn't missed a beat with hits in four of his last five games with two doubles and two home runs. He and the M's face a struggling lefty in Tarik Skubal and Haniger has crushed in this split with a 140 wRC+ and .364 ISO. We have also spent almost the entire article looking at FanDuel value vs. DraftKings and it's a relief to bring one from the other side as Haniger's best value is on DK tonight in the mid $4K range.
opportunity is everything and that is exactly where this play comes into the fold. With all the Dodgers injuries, Matt Beaty is being projected to hit cleanup(or at least middle of lineup) tonight and if that holds when lineups are released, he will easily be our top PTS/$ play. Despite not playing regularly, he has been very good hitting .293 with 18 RBI and a 127 wRC+. Stay tuned for lineups but as of now, I will have exposure in all formats with the price and matchup.