Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/2/21
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First of all, can we discuss how DraftKings seems to have a thing with Marlins pitching as Pablo Lopez is just $600 cheaper than Walker Buehler yet one is a -220 favorite and the other is a +132 dog. It makes no sense at all and the decision to go with Buehler as top pitcher very easy. While the lack of strikeouts recently is a bit of a concern, it is washed away with the fact he has been fairly dominant holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in three straight and four of his last five starts. He also goes deep into games consistently(6+ IP in all 10 starts) and while the matchup isn't elite, the Cards are just a league-average offense through two months. Fire up Buehler in all formats tonight.
The price on Manaea has hit a season-high but is mostly relative to the smaller slate and lack of top pitching so I am not at all concerned. Helping my feeling of safety with this pick is the fact Manaea has been very consistent all year holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven of 11 starts and enters the night with a 3.86 ERA/3.60 xFIP. The matchup is what ties it all together as the Mariners are a bottom-third offense(.285 wOBA/86 wRC+) and strike out 27% of the time vs. left-handed pitching. All things considered, Manaea is my top SP2 on Draftkings and can be considered in all formats on FanDuel should you need that extra $1000.
First of all, if you can find enough value elsewhere it is hard to ignore what Vladdy Jr. is doing right now. I might try and fit him into some GPP builds but for my cash games, I am normally going a little more balanced and at first base it starts with Matt Olson in the next tier down. What he lacks in consistency, in terms of average(.258), he more than makes up for with the counting stats as he is one of just 22 players with 30+ runs scored and RBI and one of 12 of them that has 13 or more home runs. The A's are in a good spot tonight and Olson is my top PTS/$ play at first base.
Also Consider: C.J. Cron(COL) or Nate Lowe(TEX) as value plays in the same game at Coors going up against below-average pitching
Max Muncy FD - 1B 4000 DK - 2B 5200
Opponent - STL (Carlos Martinez) Park - LAD
FD - 13.14 DK - 9.68
If I had a season tally of each time a player ended up in my articles, Max Muncy is likely leading the way, and for good reason. Like I mentioned yesterday, he trails only Vladdy and Nick Castellanos in WAR, leads the league in on-base percentage(.436), and is another one of those 22 players with 30+ RBI and runs scored on the season(4th in wRC+). The Dodgers get a plus matchup against Carlos Martinez(4.22 ERA/4.92 xFIP) and with Muncy hitting second between Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger, he is easily my top paly at second base and can also be used at first base still on FanDuel.
DJ LeMahieu FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - TB (Shane McClanahan) Park - TB
FD - 11.91 DK - 9.2
I get that the Yankees are struggling right now but I just can't ignore the falling price of one of the best hitters in the game. He hits leadoff in front of some very powerful bats and is currently close to a season-low price on both sites. He may start to be heating up, as well, coming in with hits in five of his last six. I won't be using in cash games tonight but love a Yankees stack now that everyone should be off of them.
He sort of gave us a dud(one walk, one RBI) yesterday after writing him up but I am getting right back on the horse again tonight. Hard not to as he has not only been one of the hottest hitters in the game over the last three weeks(.454 wOBA, 201 wRC+) but he also comes with a very affordable price tag on both sites. To top it off he gets a plus matchup and has finally been moving up the order adding to that PTS/$ value. He is easily my top shortstop in all formats tonight.
On DraftKings, I think we just go with Correa who has moved up the lineup and is arguably on the better offense but on FanDuel we can't ignore the discount with Swanson. He has also been heating up entering the night with a 10-game hit streak including five doubles and two home runs. The only knock here is that he hits down in the order but the system still absolutely loves him tonight putting him in play in all formats.
Justin Turner FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - STL (Carlos Martinez) Park - STL
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.09
The third base position brings us some nice value which has me focusing almost exclusively on the mid-range of pricing. The Dodgers are a Top 3 team in terms of implied runs and one of the best overall offenses in baseball so it was a bit surprising to see Turner as the 7th most expensive option on both sites. While it may be a bit of a slow start for Turner almost any other player would take a .358 wOBA, 131 wRC+ through 52 games. All things considered, he is in play in all formats and one of my top PTS/$ plays at any position for cash games.
It has also been a slow start for Donaldson due to some injuries which has helped keep his price in the mid-range, much like Turner. The system absolutely loves this for cash games considering JD20 doesn't strike out a lot(15%) and comes in with a .341 OBP and near-elite .373 wOBA. He and Twins are once again near the top of my exposure list in all formats facing Matt Harvey who has given up 5+ earned runs in four straight starts. Lock and load!
Joey Gallo FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.49
Yonathan Daza FD - OF 2500 DK - OF 3100
Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - COL
FD - 11.1 DK - 8.79
I have yet to touch on this game despite the highest total on the board for good reason as both teams are inconsistent and rank in the bottom half of the league in almost every offensive category. I am definitely not into stacking this one as most of the players are overpriced but there are some nice value plays we can use as one-offs.
Let's start with Joey Gallo whose price jumps off the page on DraftKings at just $4300 when you consider that there 20+ players in the $5K range. While he strikes out a ton(33.5%), he has also shown patience at the plate running a career-high 18% walk rate leading to a .367 OBP and we all know about the power upside.
For Daza, he is a top PTS/$ play overall and it comes down to opportunity. With Trevor Story out of the lineup, Daza is getting a shot at hitting near the top of the order and is making the most of it with back-to-back multi-hit games. As long as he is back in the two-hole tonight, he is my top value play on the slate.
Also Consider: Mookie Betts(LAD) as a top pay up option with a price back down in the mid $5K range on DraftKings and under $4K on FanDuel or Alex Kirilloff(MIN) who is cheap on both sites and is projected to be in the cleanup spot against Matt Harvey