Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday, 6/10/21
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After a huge Thursday slate last week, we're back to a more normal one here. We have a lot of teams traveling, with only six games making up this night slate. The one thing that needs to be monitored is the weather. That's common on every slate, but the San Fran-Washington game definitely has some question marks when we write this on Wednesday evening. If that game has any postponement threat, go ahead and fade it, eliminating 17 percent of the player pool.
Whenever you have one of the hottest pitchers in baseball facing one of the worst lineups, you have to use them in DFS. Let's kick things off by talking about my Rockies. This team is an embarrassment outside of Coors Field, ranked dead-last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA on the road. They're actually lapping the field in many of those barely averaging over two runs a game. That's horrifying in a spacious ballpark like Marlins Park and even more terrifying against a guy like Trevor. The spectacular southpaw has allowed three runs or fewer in all 12 starts he's made, generating a 1.97 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9 rate. Just take the guaranteed quality start and build your lineup from there.
This is far from a guaranteed quality start with Montas's volatility, but we like his upside in this spot. What really killed Frankie's numbers is the fact that he allowed six runs or more in two of his first four starts. Since then, he's been a different player, generating a 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9 rate in his other 10 starts. Those two rough outings came against the Dodgers and Twins, which tells you everything you need to know. The Royals are far from those lineups, with Kansas City ranked 17th in runs scored, 22nd in OBP, 19th in OPS, and 21st in wOBA. We also don't mind that Montas gets a home start at Oakland Coliseum, owning a 3.06 and 1.17 WHIP there between 2019-20.
Vlad was a slight disappointment last season, but it was just a matter of time before becoming one of the best hitters in baseball. He's definitely reached that level, accruing a .335 BA, .441 OBP, .660 SLG, and 1.101 OPS. Those are Barry Bonds-like numbers, and it's clear that the sky is the limit for this kid. He's been even better the last month, totaling a 1.230 OPS over his last 25 games played. That makes him worthy of any price, and we certainly love that he gets the platoon advantage against a lefty. It's not like Dallas Keuchel is scary either, and we'll dive into that later in the article.
José Abreu FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 5200
Opponent - TOR (Hyun-Jin Ryu) Park - CHW
FD - 11.07 DK - 8.37
Abreu took down AL MVP honors last season, but you wouldn't know it by this silly $3,300 price tag on FanDuel. This guy has been a machine since then, generating a .288 AVG, .355 OBP. .548 SLG and .903 OPS on that 115-game span. That's hard to overlook from someone who's seen his price drop, and it tells us that it's just a matter of time before he gets hot. A matchup with a southpaw is the thing that could get him rolling again, with Abreu hitting .322 against lefties since 2019, en route to a .597 SLG and .982 OPS. Ryu is certainly a concerning matchup, but allowing seven runs in his last start might be a sign that he's struggling right now.
Gary Sánchez (FD $2700 DK $4600) is a great option against a lefty if you need a catcher.
Marcus Semien FD - 2B 3300 DK - 2B 5200
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - CHW
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.51
Semien really struggled in the first month of the season, but he's been one of the best players in fantasy since then. Since the beginning of May, Semien has a .344 AVG, .411 OBP, .632 SLG, and 1.043 OPS. What's just as impressive is the fact that he's near the top of this lineup, providing runs and steals at ease as well. That makes him one of the best fantasy assets out there, especially against left-handers. Since 2019, Marcus has a .509 SLG and .866 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. We foreshadowed facing Keuchel, too, because he has a 4.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP to go with an ugly 4.5 K/9 rate. That lack of strikeout stuff is scary against this potent lineup, and we're not done with these Blue Jays quite yet!
DJ is having one of the worst years of his career, but it's lowered his price tags to some numbers we can't overlook. This is a guy who was $1,000-1,500 more at this time last season, flirting with yet another battling title. In his first two seasons with the Yankees, LeMahieu posted a .336 BA, .386 OBP, .536 SLG, and .922 OPS. That doesn't even take into consideration that he's one of the league leaders in runs in that span, too, batting atop this potent Yankees lineup. The Bronx Bombers are full of robust righties, and that's terrible news for a lefty like J.A. Happ. We'll discuss that more later on!
Bo Bichette FD - SS 3500 DK - SS 4400
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - CHW
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.96
Let's keep the Jays bats rolling against Keuchel! If it weren't for Guerrero, we'd be talking more about how amazing Big Bo has been. The talented shortstop doesn't have great averages, but his counting numbers are ridiculous. In fact, Bichette has 46 runs scored, 11 homers, 34 RBI, and seven steals this season. That gives him 9.1 DraftKings points per game which is the fourth-best number among all shortstops. That makes it hard to believe he remains this affordable, especially with the platoon advantage in his favor. Since his call-up, Bo has a .333 AVG, .576 SLG, and .956 OPS against left-handers.
Torres has been struggling a bit himself, but there are some signs that he's starting to turn things around. The streaky shortstop has multi-hit games in four of his last six outings, accumulating a .391 AVG and 1.009 OPS in that span. That's the stud that earned him a high price tag in season-long formats last year, and it makes him a decent value with how much his price has fallen on these DFS sites. We also don't mind that he gets to face a lefty, with Torres posting better splits from the right side. Happ is far from horrifying, too, with the Twins lefty owning a 5.61 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season.
Guys who dominate their splits are usually regulars in this article, and that's definitely the case with Bregman. The little third baseman has abused left-handed pitching throughout his career, tallying a .337 AVG, .433 OBP, .650 SLG, and 1.083 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. While he is struggling right now, we love that it's lowered his price behind crazy splits like the ones we just mentioned. The Red Sox southpaw is also having the worst season of his career, too, owning a 5.59 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Part of that damage came against this scary Houston lineup, with the Stros scoring six runs on E-Rod.
Here we are with another struggling hitter. The thing about DFS is that you need to buy these players when their stocks are the lowest, and that's certainly the case with Chapman. We're talking about a guy who's gotten MVP votes in the past, and it's just a matter of time before he starts raking. A matchup with Mike Minor is the thing that could get him going, with the Royals lefty owning a 4.84 ERA for the year. What we really love is that Chapman kills left-handed pitching, compiling .478 SLG and .809 OPS against southpaws since 2019.
This is a guy you want to use when he's hot. While he's been struggling the last three weeks, Wednesday's gem might be a sign of things to come. The former MVP collected two homers, a double, and five RBI in that gem, seeing the ball as well as ever. This is a guy who can rip off 10 dingers in a 10-game span, and we definitely want to ride him after a huge night on Wednesday. A big reason for that is the matchup with the struggling J.A. Happ, with Giancarlo generating a .386 OBP, .616 SLG, and 1.002 OPS against left-handers throughout his amazing career.
This is the one guy we'll recommend from that SF-WAS game. The reason for that is because Schwarber is such an incredible value. The left-handed slugger actually got a promotion to the leadoff spot on Wednesday, and that's a really encouraging sign for someone with this much power. This guy has eight homers over his last 34 games, providing a .340 OBP in that span. That's not necessarily special, but it's really all you can ask for from such a cheap bat. We also love that he gets to face a righty, with Schwarber slugging .504 against them since 2019.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. FD - OF 2500 DK - OF 3600
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - CHW
FD - 9.68 DK - 7.4
Let's finish off our Blue Jays stack with one of the best values. We've already discussed why we want to use these guys against Keuchel, with Toronto projected for more than five runs. That's great news for all of these hitters, and we love that Gurriel remains $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,600 on DraftKings. The talented youngster has a .349 AVG, .396 OBP, .628 SLG, and 1.024 OPS over his last 13 games played. That makes him one of the hottest hitters in baseball, and we adore that with Lourdes owning a .539 SLG and .849 OPS against southpaws since his call-up as well.