Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 6/11/21
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Don't get me wrong, fading deGrom in cash in a game with a silly 5.5 total seems silly but hear me out. Woodruff is not only a much larger favorite(-265) here but also gets a much better matchup against a Pirates team that ranks 2nd to last in runs scored and wRC+(81) and dead last in wOBA(.286) on the season. For Woodruff, he has been elite since the short outing on opening day holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 straight starts(1.13 ERA/2.66 xFIP) with a 33% K rate. Add in the $900 discount on DraftKings and he is my top pitcher on this slate.
Up next is my favorite value pitcher on the slate in Tyler Mahle who continues to come in under the $8K mark on DraftKings despite getting off to a career-best start. Outside of two awful starts where he allowed six and seven earned runs, he has held opponents to two or fewer in 10 of 12 starts and enters with an impressive 3.32 ERA/3.62 xFIP. He also gets a plus matchup tonight against a Rockies team that ranks dead last in wRC+(71) which is park-adjusted. No matter which elite arm you are paying up for, Mahle is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings in all formats.
If paying up at the first, Olson is the clear choice for me for a couple of reasons starting with the matchup. He and the A's face Brad Singer who has given up eight or more walks/hits in five of his last six starts and struggles much more against lefties with a 4.99 xFIP and has given up a .348 wOBA and all four home runs against in the splits. The biggest change for Olson this season has been the patience as he has brought his K rate down to 17% after topping 25% in four previous seasons. This has pushed him to an insane .393 wOBA and 158 wRC+, both among the very best in baseball. All things considered, Olson is worth every penny in this matchup and is on play in all formats.
We are once again going to want exposure to the red-hot Astros offense who get another plus matchup against Matt Shoemaker. He has given up four or more earned runs in six of his 11 starts and sits with an ugly 7.22 ERA/5.22 xFIP. For Gurriel, he has been incredible for the Astros with a .400 wOBA/163 wRC+ and sits Top 10 in RBI(45). While FanDuel has caught up in price, he continues to be underpriced on DraftKings where he is my favorite PTS/$ play at the position in all formats.
Luis Urías FD - 2B 2600 DK - 2B/3B 3700
Opponent - PIT (Chase De Jong) Park - MIL
FD - 10.27 DK - 7.84
One of the first things I look at on any slate with elite pitching are the value bats and the first one that stood out tonight was Luis Urias. First of all, the Brewers are a top 5 team in terms of implied runs in a plus matchup vs. Chase de Jong and the Pirates. For Urias, it comes down to opportunity and he has been hitting leadoff for the Brew Crew since the start of June and comes in with hits in three straight including two doubles. At these prices, he is a great one-off piece for cash games or as a part of a full Brewers stack in GPP formats.
The price has corrected but I just can't get enough of Correa after finally being moved up to the two-hole in the lineup. He let us down last night with a goose egg but has been scorching hot since the middle of May hitting .363 with a .480 wOBA and 217 wRC+ across 97 plate appearances. As I mentioned with Gurriel, the Astros get one of the best matchups on the board, and considering Tatis is $6200/$4100 on DK/FD, the price on Correa seems pretty fair. Lock and load in all formats.
This is a perfect case of a buy-low as Crawford has been red-hot with hits in seven of eight games including five multi-hit efforts since being moved up to the leadoff spot. The best part is that FanDuel and DraftKings have yet to catch up and he gets another plus matchup vs. a struggling Aaron Civale. Crawford is not only one of my top values at shortstop but one of my top values at any position on this slate.
I have somehow gone through this entire article without mentioning the Dodgers who lead all teams in implied runs(5.1) tonight. No better place to start than with Justin Turner who has been relied on heavily early in the season with injuries and struggles to Betts and Bellinger. While the average(.279) is slightly lower than normal, he has been very productive and enters the night with a .371 wOBA, 140 wRC+, with 33 RBI and 40 runs scored. Best of all, the price is still under $5K on DraftKings and in the mid $3K range on FanDuel making it very easy to fit him in all formats.
As long as the sites keeping underpricing him, I will keep putting him in my article and into my cash-game player pool. I say cash only for a couple of reasons starting with the lack of power this season(3 HR) and the fact Trout is out of the lineup which limits to run upside. What I do like is that he has been consistent lately with hits in six of his last eight games including four doubles and 11 BRI. he now gets a plus matchup vs. Merrill Kelly who has given up 15 hits and nine earned runs over his last two starts and enters with a 5.12 ERA on th season. Lock and load with Rendon in cash at these prices.
While not likely he ends up as the NL MVP, he has most definitely thrust himself in the race as he leads all players not named Vlad Jr. in WAR this season. It has been a monumental start for Castellanos who comes in hitting .357 with a .441 wOBA and 180 wRC+. He now gets to face a struggling lefty in Freeland who has given up 19 hits and nine earned runs(6.23 ERA/6.26 xFIP) in his first three starts and has absolutely owned the split to the tune of a .495 wOBA, 214 wRC+, and .333 ISO!! The price is about where it should be on FanDuel but on DraftKings, he is somehow still below $5k and a top play in all formats.
Avisaíl García FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - PIT (Chase De Jong) Park - PIT
FD - 10.4 DK - 7.98
The Brewers are a secondary team for me tonight just simply due to their overall inconsistency but I absolutely love the matchup and value on their roster tonight. I mentioned Urias who is hitting leadoff and that value continues with Garcia in the cleanup spot. While not at the top of my list in terms of consistency(.246 avg/.313 OBP) he has been productive this season with 12 home runs and 36 RBI and comes into tonight with hits in six of his last seven games. If loading up at pitcher and with a top team to stack, the Brewers are an excellent value to tie it all together in all formats.