Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 6/14/21
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It's a weird night of NBA DFS, with both of these games coming off of a game three blowout. If Conley plays, there is a relative lack of value since most of these teams have been playing set rotations since the playoffs began. That said, let's do our best to find some value.
Reggie Jackson's role looked in doubt in game one, with the Clips opting to try and chase Mitchell around with Patrick Beverley. It sure seems like the offensive is more stagnant with Jackson off the floor, though, and he immediately took 19 shots in game two. He lost minutes in the game three blowout, but if he's on the court for his full run (about 36 minutes) he should be what passes for a value play on a two-game playoff slate.
The rest of the position is all over the place. If Conley sits, Clarkson becomes playable, but not exciting. Trae Young has been on pace for decent games on his prices, but Atlanta has been unable to hang. With a gun to my head I'd prefer Clarkson, but Young is passable if you have the money left over. I think I'd rather spend up on other stars, though.
George has come close to paying these prices in back to back games in spite of both being lopsided affairs, and Kawhi taking some of the defensive burden against Mitchell certainly helps matters. PG is looking confident for the first time this playoffs, to me, aggressively going into the paint but not forcing things just to keep his shot count up. If you can extrapolate last game's performance to 40+ minutes you have a solid value on your hands.
Curry has really exploited Atlanta's defensive holes in a way the Knicks were never able to, draining jumper after jumper when the defense helps on Embiid, Harris, or Simmons. With 24+ FanDuel points in each of the series' first three games (including game 3's blowout), he's a nice high floor option at a very affordable price.
If Conley sits, you almost have to play Joe Ingles.
Kawhi Leonard FD - $11200 DK - $10000
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 48.8 DK - 49.39
Kawhi flicked on his "god mode" switch in game three, finishing with 34 points, 12 boards, and 5 assists while chipping in three defensive stats as well. He guarded Mitchell much more than he did in games one or two, and one has to wonder if the tougher defensive assignment kept him more engaged on both ends of the floor. With the Clips looking worlds better in game three than they did in one or two, one has to assume they'll go back to the well and attempt to lean on Kawhi again in game four. You're paying a pretty penny on FanDuel (perhaps too much?), but on DK he looks very affordable to me.
Bojan Bogdanovic FD - $5400 DK - $5600
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.64 DK - 30.76
Bojan was pretty bad in game three, but he was very serviceable in the prior games, and seems to present less risk than some of the other options here. You're basically comparing him to Batum (great last game, but otherwise inconsistent) and Gallo off the bench. Given those two options, I'll take the guaranteed high 30s minutes from Bogdanovic any day of the week.
John Collins FD - $6600 DK - $5900
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.66 DK - 36.94
Collins has averaged roughly 5x points per dollar on these prices during this series, and while that's nothing to write home about, the position is so shallow that you probably can't fade him. While his extra length is somewhat redundant in normal match-ups, it's essential against the long Sixers, and Collins could push 100% ownership in cash games.
Tobias Harris FD - $8600 DK - $8100
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 42.27 DK - 42.4
The last power forward slot comes down to a battle between Harris and Marcus Morris, and while Harris is obviously the superior player overall, I also like him better on a per-minute basis. His lines in the first three games were eerily similar, posting 20/10/3, 22/6/4, and 22/8/5 lines. That's plenty of production on these prices, and if the Hawks double down on trying to stop Embiid, Harris could do even better.
Clint Capela FD - $7300 DK - $7100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 42.17 DK - 42.21
Our system is going to have a hard time fading Capela at these prices, but I can't say I'm especially excited about it. He's the only credible defender that the Hawks can throw at Embiid, and his rebounding is crucial against the long Philly team. With 16 boards in just 28 minutes in game three, Capela continued to cement his status as a very important guy if the Hawks will come close to competing with the Sixers in this series.
Our system also likes Embiid and Gobert, but my intuition tells me that you'll want to allocate the extra funds elsewhere. Still, if you can afford Embiid in particular he has been the most consistent superstar on this slate.