Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/15/21
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You know it's a weird night for pitching when our top pitcher gets a huge park downgrade heading into Coors Field. What stands out the most and reason for his lofty PTS/$ projection is the fact he is near season-low pricing on both sites sitting 3rd/4th in pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel. While the K upside has been up and down, Darvish has been consistent holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 of 13 starts this season. If you can get past the ballpark the matchup is a plus one as the Rockies have scored a league-low 91 runs over the last month and have an ugly 67 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. Fire up Darvish in all formats.
The optimizer often pairs two top pitchers on DraftKings and that will most likely be the case tonight with a lack of pitching and Rogers/Darvish combined salary being under $20K. Rogers has also been terrific to start his second season averaging almost six innings per start and has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven straight and 12 of his 13 starts(3 ER in the other). He has not only been consistent but provided but upside as well with a 30% K rate/15% swinging-strike rate and now faces a struggling Cardinals team that has posted a 80 wRC+ and 26% K rate over the last two weeks. I will have exposure in all formats.
Also Consider: Casey Mize(DET) as value SP2 option who has posted a 2.45 ERA over his last seven starts
It another Coors night and I really like the matchup or the Padres which means we are going to need some value if we want to stack them. One team I have turned to quite a bit recently for value has been the Brewers and specifically the top of the lineup. While hitting just .221 on the season, Vogelbach has been consistent in the short term with hits in eight of his last nine games and flashed a ton of upside with three doubles and three home runs. If he continues to hit second, he is in a great spot vs. the often wild Luis Castillo and I would even consider in cash games.
I don't often mention a catcher in my articles but it's hard to ignore the opportunity Stephenson is getting hitting in the middle of the order for the Reds. Those Reds are in a great spot tonight against Brett Anderson and his ugly 1.59 WHIP which should give Stepehson plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. He has also crushed lefties this season to the tune of a .413 wOBA, 161 wRC+, and .351 ISO. He is my top catcher on DraftKings and a sneaky piece of a Reds stack on FanDuel that could be lower owned as you are not required to roster a catcher.
Also Consider: Vladimir Guerrero Jr(TOR) who is on another planet right now or Omar Navaraez(MIL) as another solid catcher option in all formats.
Luis Urías FD - 2B 2700 DK - 2B/3B 3700
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - MIL
FD - 10.19 DK - 7.78
I mentioned the Brewers as a top team for value above and hitting right ahead of Vogelbach is Luis Urias in the leadoff spot. He has only been there since the start of June but has impressed and is earning more of a leash with hits in seven of 10 starts in his new role. The OBP(.361) has also been better during this stretch and it should continue to rise against Castillo who has walked three or batters in four of his last five games. Pairing Urias and Vogelbach in cash leaves a lot of room to fit top pitching and some Coors exposure. Then for GPP, add Yelich, Garcia, and even Narvaez.
This is a very similar play to Urias above in that Villar is enjoying a new role as the Mets leadoff hitter posting a .386 wOBA and 151 wRC+ over a 19-game sample size. The upside has been somewhat limited but he does add the speed factor and is 3 for 7 in that same sample size. At these prices with how hot the Mets have been, Villar should be in our player pools in all formats tonight.
This play might just be too good to be true as Rosario checks almost every single box. It starts with the matchup against Matt Harvey who has given up five or more earned runs in five of his last six starts including seven home runs. With that matchup the Indians are a Top 3 team in terms of implied runs and Rosario has been red-hot since moving up to the two-hole in the lineup posting a .385 wOBA/145 wRC+ over 16 games. The price is fair on FanDuel where he has multi-position eligibility but his best value comes on DraftKings in the sub $4K range.
Signing a huge contract in New York as a free agent and following it up with a terrible slump to start the season is a near death sentence but no player has a better personality to shake it off than Lindor. From a DFS perspective, the slump has pushed his price way down making this a great buy-low spot as his price will most certainly be back up soon considering he is starting to heat up. Over the last couple of weeks he has picked things up hitting .295 with a .384 wOBA and 150 wRC+ so hop on board before he is back in the elite price territory.
I spend a lot of time in this article highlighting value plays and the third base position is exactly the reason why. It is by far my favorite spot to spend up tonight and these two elite players are at the top of my list. The first reason I like them both is the value that surrounds them making it much easier to stack the top of the lineup than most teams.
Let's start with Ramirez who provides a little bit of everything as he gives us consistency with a .359 OBP/.377 wOBA, power with 14 home runs, 38 RBI, and .262 ISO. He then caps it all off with some speed having stolen six bases this season and has tallied double-digits in seven previous seasons.
For Machado, it's all about getting as much Padres exposure in Coors as possible and while he has been as good as JRam this season, he has nearly identical tools and comes in with hits in eight of 12 games in June with three home runs. His best value is also on DraftKings if you need the extra $400.
Tommy Pham FD - OF 3800 DK - OF 5400
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - COL
FD - 15.63 DK - 11.85
Trent Grisham FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - COL
FD - 15.55 DK - 11.72
With liking Darvish at pitcher and Tatis/Machado having monster price tags, I have yet to touch on the game at Coors with the highest total on the slate. While I will do my best to get those big bats in my GPP builds, I like the projected 1-2 at the top of the lineup for cash games to get exposure to the high total. Let's start with Pham who comes in red-hot with three straight multi-hit games and has tallied a .409 wOBA/164 wRC+ over the last three weeks. He doesn't come cheap either but has been worth eery penny and is in a great spot again tonight. For Grisham, the value comes on DraftKings where he is still in the mid $4K range despite the matchup in Coors and his spot at the top of the lineup.
While Cleveland doesn't get to take their hacks in Coors, they are right near the top of my exposure list tonight facing Matt Harvey. There are multiple ways to attack them and for me, it starts with Eddie Rosario who is underpriced in relation to his opportunity hitting in the middle of the order and current form with hits in six of his last eight games. At these prices, I like him as a one-off value piece to help get to pitching and Coors bats or as a part of a full Cleveland stack to pivot off Coors.