FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 6/16/21

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Point Guard

Ben Simmons FD - $8500 DK - $7600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 43.88 DK - 43.53

We’ve seen that in close games, the plan is to play Simmons minutes close to the 40 mark and that’s almost too good to pass up at these price points. The DraftKings’ price is particularly attractive under $8K and he offers so many ways to put up fantasy points. The rebounds hadn’t really come in bunches until last game, but he did pull down 12 boards in that one. I think if the expectation is 38-39 mutes then you live with the weird usage and the struggles at the free-throw line.

Jordan Clarkson FD - $5300 DK - $6300
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 34.06 DK - 35.92

I know he’s struggled in this series, but without Mike Conley again, it’s really tough to pass up on Clarkson on FanDuel where he’s coming just too cheap. He’s struggled the last two games from the field, going 8-28 combined. But the minutes are there and the Jazz still sorely need him to create something off the dribble to survive the scoring margin with Conley out. I still think we can play him here because of the pricing with the idea that the minutes are rather safe and he’s unlikely to keep shooting this poorly.

Shooting Guard

Paul George FD - $9200 DK - $8600
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 48.94 DK - 51.27

Paul George has been excellent in the last two games, taking advantage of the the Jazz defense around the perimeter and putting in high-volume shooting performances that have helped the Clippers climb back into this series. He’s shot 50% from three over the last two and for the series is averaging 27 points, eight rebounds and four assists. He’s still just too cheap on DraftKings and should be in line to hit value considering the minutes they are going to run him again.

Bogdan Bogdanovic FD - $6200 DK - $6500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 40.18 DK - 41.9

Bogdanovic played a ton of minutes in the Game 4 win for the Hawks. And his usage was through the roof with 24 shots in 42 minutes. He did struggle a bit though, making only nine and going 4-13 from three. But you have to love the run and the number of shot attempts. It should be the case again with this game going back to Philly. Getting this many minutes in the middle tier is how to make up some ground on these slates where the options are very thin and the pricing in mostly fair at this point.

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard FD - $11000 DK - $9700
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 52.95 DK - 53.55

Like Paul George, he’s showed up even more in the last two games and made this a series again. Stacking the two Clippers guys feels like the move in cash here considering that so much of the offense is concentrated around these two guys and it’s hard to imagine them not paying it off. It’s a bit closer for Kawhi on FanDuel because that price is getting a bit nuts. But the DraftKings price is something of a mistake going the other way. On DK Kawhi will be the complete chalk. On FD, it’s a little closer. Update: Kawhi Leonard is out for this game. 

Nicolas Batum FD - $6200 DK - $4600
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 26.24 DK - 26.14

On DraftKings, Batum’s price doesn’t totally reflect the move to the starting lineup over the last couple of games. He’s playing minutes in the 30s, daring the Jazz to go small and offering plenty of problems for them with the way the Clippers are playing. He’s averaging 12 points, seven rebounds, and three assists over the last two games which is more than enough at the DK price and totally repeatable considering how the Clippers are using him in the starting lineup.

Power Forward

John Collins FD - $6600 DK - $6000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 35.3 DK - 35.5

I still think Collins is coming too cheap on these slates. He’s had a choppy series, but in the aggregate, the numbers look pretty good with the potential that he could put it all together for a monster. He double-doubled last game with 14 points and 12 rebounds and for the series is putting up a 16/8 line. The shots have increased over the last two games with the Hawks finding more mismatch opportunities when they go bigger. I like Collins for the minutes and his mid-tier salary makes lineup building a bit easier.

Royce O'Neale FD - $5000 DK - $4900
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.15 DK - 25.69

It’s tough to find anything like cheaper plays on these slates and O’Neale isn’t exactly a punt, but he does open up a little bit of salary relief. Because of the wing defense, he’s been able to stay on the court for longer stretches in this series and that should continue to be the case on Wednesday. He’s averaging nine points and seven rebounds for the series, which in a normal slate wouldn’t be something to target, but these are the playoffs where fantasy production is greatly concentrated around the superstars. This is still a value.

Center

Joel Embiid FD - $10800 DK - $10500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 61.3 DK - 63.11

Almost too tough of a fade in this series considering the way the Sixers are relying on him. It’s so tough to play PG, Kawhi and Embiid all in the same lineup, so concessions have to be made. And there’s a little concern that Embiid looked a bit out of sorts last game. But when even a little bit right he’s been able to totally dominate the Hawks on the offensive end. Even with the poor Game 4 performance, this guy is averaging 31 points, 13 rebounds and three defensive stats per game in the series.

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