Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/29/21
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The Cubs run into an absolute buzzsaw this series facing the Brewers top pitching and they face arguably the best of the bunch in Woodruff tonight. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball on the season with the 3rd best ERA(1.89) and xFIP(2.81) among qualified pitchers. He just doesn't give up a ton of contact or walk many batters(.76 WHIP) giving him a high floor and also provides a ton of upside with a 31% K rate facing a Cubs team that has struck out over 30% of the time over the past few weeks. Easily my top pitcher in all formats on this slate.
The price is on the rise but it's most definitely warranted as Urquidy has been terrific since returning from injury going 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA/3.50 xFIP and has seen the K #'s rise substantially since the start of the season. He now gets an elite matchup against a struggling Orioles team that has dropped 16 of their last 18 games while scoring just an average 3.1 runs per game and striking out 27% of the time. With a larger slate and tons of value bats, it won't be hard to pair Urquidy with another top pitcher making him my favorite SP2 on this slate and is close to my favorite PTS/$ option on FanDuel.
First article of the week for me so of course, I am going to start off with one of my favorite DFS plays this season in Yuli Gurriel. He has been great all season(.333/.396/.517 slash) and it's also hard to ignore the short-term as he went into Monday night's game hitting .386 in June with a .406 wOBA and 164 wRC+. DraftKings is catching up in terms of pricing but he is still 7th in pricing but the real value lies on FanDuel where he is still $3K. I will have exposure in all formats.
Nate Lowe FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 4200
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - OAK
FD - 9.27 DK - 7.01
If you absolutely need the savings at first base, Nate Lowe is on my radar tonight. He doesn't bring a whole lot of upside to the table especially considering the slightly below-average matchup but what he has been is consistent lately and isn't likely to totally throw up a goose egg. He comes in with hits in 11 of his last 13 games and has produced on the season with 10 home runs, 40 RBI, and 35 runs scored, good for a 116 wRC+. All things considered, he is viable as a cash value but probably best as a piece on a very low-owned Rangers stacks.
This is a Coors slate I can get behind as it checks almost every single box for me starting with the matchup against Chase De Jong who has struggled to a 4.94 ERA/5.27 xFIP on the season. The most important part of the formula tonight is the value that the home team provides and it starts with Rodgers who may hit down in the lineup most nights but has been hot lately hitting .333 with a .421 wOBA/156 wRC+ over his last 20 games. Like most of the Rockies bats tonight, their best value comes on DraftKings.
Kike Hernández FD - 2B 3300 DK - 2B/OF 3800
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - BOS
FD - 10.28 DK - 7.75
The value in the middle infield continues and we are going to need it, especially on DraftKings if using over 40% of our salary cap on pitching. This play is largely dependant on Hernandez hitting leadoff which he has in each of the last two games, picking up multiple hits in both. The Red Sox are second in terms of implied runs tonight in a plus matchup against a struggling Brad Keller who has given up 30 hits and 20 earned runs over his last four starts. If back in that leadoff spot, he will be one of our top PTS/$ tonight.
Amed Rosario FD 2600 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (José Ureña) Park - DET
FD - 12.44 DK - 9.75
This pick covers two of my core strategies for tonight with one being targeting Cleveland bats vs. Jose Urena and the other being looking for middle infield value to help roster top pitching. Boom. Rosario covers both as the price is still very affordable for a guy hitting second in the lineup and getting an elite matchup against a struggling pitcher. At these prices, he is in my player pool in all formats.
Also Consider: Carlos Correa(HOU) if you have the salary, especially if he moves back up the lineup. Trevor Story(COL) is very expensive at home in Coors but gets a great matchup. I would also consider Josh Rojas(ARI) who is cheap, leads off correlating with Escobar, and gets a plus matchup
Devers sits atop our projections at third base tonight and while it will cost you a good chunk of salary to roster him, he is still only the 5th and 6th most expensive option on DK/FD. That is great value considering the season he is having as he enters the night with an elite .384 wOBA, 141 wRC+ and sits 8th in home runs(19) and 2nd in RBI(64). On top of his own stats pointing towards a good play he also gets a great matchup vs. Brad Keller and is easily my top play at third in all formats.
Eduardo Escobar FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - STL (Carlos Martínez) Park - STL
FD - 9.68 DK - 7.37
The trade deadline is approaching fast and it is clear the D-backs are going nowhere and that has sparked a lot of trade talks involving Escobar. He is doing his part to help the D-backs get max return as he has really picked it up in June hitting .288 with a .355 wOBA and 125 wRC+ and brings multi-position eligibility both in real life and for s in fantasy. Best of all, he gets a plus matchup vs. a struggling pitcher and comes at a mid-tier price which is perfect for a slate where we want to pay up at pitching.
Raimel Tapia FD - OF 3600 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - PIT (Chase De Jong) Park - COL
FD - 11.95 DK - 9.37
Yonathan Daza FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 3100
Opponent - PIT (Chase De Jong) Park - COL
FD - 12.46 DK - 9.87
I mentioned the value with the Rockies earlier in the article and will circle back on that as this is what stood out to me right away when first looking at the slate. Tapia and Daza have been and are projected to hit 1-2 in the lineup at home in best hitters park in a plus matchup. That isn't the best part, however, as both have been fantastic in June:
- Tapia hitting .370 with a .394 wOBA
- Daza hitting .330 with a .351 wOBA.
Stacking them together is a great way to start your build after inserting two top pitchers that will take a large portion of your salary. I am all over them in all formats tonight.
The Padres give us another pair of value outfielders to target tonight. Let's start with Pham who has been hitting leadoff regularly in June and has been very consistent hitting .317 with an elite .433 wOBA and 180 wRC+. He not only hits leadoff, gets a plus matchup, and is very affordable but also contributes in all areas with power, speed, and run scoring ability. For Grisham, there is a bit more risk as he has been hitting down in the lineup most games but does get opportunities near the top at times and comes in with a four-game hit streak. He also provides some nice PTS/$ upside at this price considering he also some power behind the bat(8 HR this season).
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- Brewers Padres Baseball: AP Images