Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 7/20/21 - Main slate
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Shane McClanahan has had an excellent season, able to translate his minor league numbers into striking out major league bats. He’s putting down hitters almost 30% of the time and the 3.24 xFIP is about three-quarters a run better than the ERA. He comes in as the best-win odds pitcher on the slate as a -191 home favorite against the Orioles. Baltimore strikes out about 24% of the time as a team and ranks 22nd in terms of wOBA. I suspect he is one of the highest-owned cash game pitchers. He’s simply too cheap on both sites, especially FanDuel.
Rogers is more expensive though his numbers aren’t that different from McClanahan. He’s run better with the ERA (2.31) even though the xFIP is about the same. He’s a good pitcher in his own right obviously but has a worse matchup against the Nationals who are in the top-third on offense this season. And his win odds aren’t as good. But because of the McClanahan’s discount on DraftKings you can definitely play these guys together over there.
You are guying to see more than a couple of Rockies on this list today and for good reason. Playing in Coors against a weaker lefty will do that. Gonzales has a 5.05 xFIP on the season and doesn’t have much in the strikeout stuff. Cron has had a solid enough first season with the Rockies with a mid-800s OPS and 13 home runs. He walks enough to keep the floor high and should be hitting in the top six spots in the lineup against the lefty.
Gurriel makes a solid cash game play in most matchups because he puts the ball in play so much (80% of the time) and strikes out only 10% of the time. The contact rate is elite and he has some power as well with 10 home runs this season. The OPS is sitting in the mid-800s and though Triston McKenzie has some K stuff, he’s walked a lot of batters in his short major league career.
Rodgers should find his way back into the second slot in the order against the lefty Gonzales. He doesn’t have tremendous offensive numbers by any means, but the spot in the lineup would be too good to pass up in this matchup, especially at the FanDuel price point. There is a trickle of power in his bat and he’s been better against his lefties for his career, though admittedly not very good. Still, batting order placement with a high run line counts for a lot these days and that would be the story for Rodgers.
I think Rodgers is the far and away best play here at second base on both sites if he is hitting second in the order. If you are looking to pivot then Jean Segura (FD $2900 DK $3300) hitting leadoff wouldn’t be the worst play on DraftKings. The price is still pretty cheap.
Story against a lefty in Coors? This one feels like a no-brainer. At home against southpaws for his career, Story has put up huge stats rocking a 154 wRC+ and 1.096 OPS. That’s enough to write home about for sure and the Rockies come into this game with the highest implied run line of the night for a reason. Story is expensive, but his price isn’t close to high enough on FanDuel where he’s sub-$4K. I think he will easily be the highest-owned shortstop there and likely on both sites for this one.
Fernando Tatis Jr. FD 4300 DK 5700
Opponent - ATL (Kyle Muller) Park - ATL
FD - 15.84 DK - 11.98
Much like Rodgers, Story is the pretty clear play here. But Tatis is so freaking good that he’s worth mentioning because he’s in such a good matchup and is just the elite of the elite when it comes to fantasy production. He has 28 home runs and 22 stolen bases through just 328 plate appearances, as much production as you’ll ever see from a player. The price is oddly, still not high enough for what he can do with the bat and on the base paths.
Yoán Moncada FD 3100 DK 4900
Opponent - MIN (Bailey Ober) Park - MIN
FD - 12.35 DK - 9.35
He’s a good price on FanDuel and continues to be a good cash play because of the patience at the plate. He has a 16% walk rate and an OPS hovering around .800 on the season. The power might not ever get back to the 2019 levels, but that is probably okay for his long-term forecast. The ability to draw walks is solid and he doesn’t strike out at an overwhelming rate. Bailey Ober has some swing and miss stuff, but the xFIP is well over 4.00 and he isn’t an arm we need to avoid.
He is a 3B on DraftKings where we can continue a Rockies stack on this slate. He’s a lefty, but in terms of OPS is actually platoon neutral for his career so far. That’s a fine enough prospect to have him considered for cash games on this slate hitting in Coors. I rank him lower than the other Colorado bats though, so keep that in mind.
Each of these guys is coming too cheap on one of the two sites. For Alvarez, it’s FanDuel where the $3500 price tag represents a major value. He has 17 home runs on the season and the .879 OPS is just beneath the elite level for that number. The Astros have a solid implied run line on this slate and we can get Alvarez at mid-tier pricing.
Meanwhile, Brantley remains way too cheap on DraftKings where the price just refuses to budge from the low-$3K range. He has a higher .800s OPS and puts the ball in play 83% of the time, striking out at just an 11% rate. That’s an elite number and he makes up for the lack of power by getting the ball on the bat almost every time.
The power has really dropped off a cliff over the last couple of seasons which is a troubling trend especially considering the ballpark. But that’s at least reflected in the FanDuel price where he’s coming in the lower-middle tier. The DraftKings price is a little tougher sell considering this is the wrong side of his platoon split, but the matchup is still such a good one for the Rockies overall.