Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/24/21 - Main slate
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Gausman has been excellent this season, sporting one of the best ERAs in the league at 1.84 and striking out more than 10 batters per inning. The ERA is, for sure, a little run hot with the xFIP sitting at 3.40, more than 1.5 runs higher. Regardless, the peripherals have been amazing and he’s getting one of the worst offenses in the league in the Pittsburgh Pirates. They rank 27th in team wOBA, though do put the ball in play striking out *only* 22% of the time. This is still an excellent spot for Gausman who is a big money line favorite and could be the chalk arm on this evening slate.
Gonsolin is an interesting case here. For starters, there is the good. He’s got a lower 2.83 ERA and is striking out close to 11 batters per nine. Those are numbers you love to see. But then there is the bad. He’s walking almost six batters per nine and the 5.07 xFIP is rough. This is only around 30 innings into his season so some of this will flatten out, it’s just tough to tell what. For this game, he’s a big-time -237 home favorite against the Rockies and that puts him into cash game consideration.
The Reds are in a great spot on Saturday against Woodford and have one of the highest implied run projections on the slate. Votto should still be in the third spot in the lineup and remains a patient hitter. The walks are down some from his peak, but he’s hitting for more power than we saw in 2018 or 2019. That’s a good sign and the OPS in the mid 800s. He’s a solid mid-tier play on FanDuel.
The Royals get a good matchup against Casey Mize who strikes out batters at below a league-average rate this season and is the very definition of average when it comes to major league arms. The Royals have one of the higher implied run totals on the slate because of it. Santana is among the most patient hitters in the game, walking 15% of the time which is the same as his strike-out rate. He is on his way to a 20-home run season as well and should hit second in the lineup.
Merrifield doesn’t have the best OPS in the world but he has a lot of other stuff going for him on a fantasy level. He’s already stolen 25 bases this season which is among the best in the league. And there is some power with eight home runs. He doesn’t take a ton of walks, but he doesn’t strike out much either, going down swinging just 13% of the time. Stacking the top of the Royals lineup makes sense on this slate.
Brandon Lowe FD 3600 DK 4800
Opponent - CLE (J.C. Mejía) Park - CLE
FD - 13.5 DK - 10.15
Lowe should be hitting leadoff in this matchup against Mejia and the Rays lineup has improved of late, especially after the addition of Nelson Cruz to the middle of the order. Lowe strikes out a lot (31%), but also walks 12% of the time and has an .800 OPS on the season. The 21 home runs help there and he’s already at a career-best when it comes to the power. I like hit DraftKings price especially.
Taijuan Walker has been good this year, but not as great as the sub-3.00 ERA would suggest. He’s closer to league-average and Bichette remains one of the better fantasy options around because of the power/speed combination. The price is up there for sure, but for reason because of the premium slot in a potent Blue Jays’ lineups.
Amed Rosario FD 2600 DK 4200
Opponent - TB (Drew Rasmussen) Park - TB
FD - 10.69 DK - 8.38
He hasn’t been able to replicate his 2019 numbers at the plate especially with the power numbers. But the same can be said for a lot of the guys who spiked the home runs that season. He’s still hitting second for the now-Guardians who are facing Rasmussen, a high-K guy with the propensity to lose it in terms of control. Rosario is a high-batting order play here coming at a reasonable price on both sites.
The Twins might be in a little bit of sell mode here, having traded away Nelson Cruz earlier in the week and they might not be done. But while he’s still around, Donaldson is still guys can target against lefties, a platoon he’s crushed for his entire career. He has a .944 OPS against southpaws with a 14% walk rate, .559 OPS and .284 ISO. Those are elite numbers and there is still power left in his bat.
At least early on, Donaldson sure seems like the best play here, but if you are looking to go a little cheaper then Hunter Dozier (FD $2600 DK $3200) is in a good spot and is coming very cheap on both sites.
Winker remains one of the better power bats in the game with 19 home runs this season and an OPS that’s been flirting with .900 all season. Considering they are in the best hitter’s park on this slate against a very weak arm, it makes sense that we are going to want to stack the Reds in cash.
Meanwhile, Aquino could be hitting in the middle of the order bat with the Reds dealing with some injuries. He’s had another amazing call-up to the majors this time around with six home runs in just 71 plate appearances. He strikes out a lot sure, but that’s less of a concern against Woodford in this matchup.
Benintendi is a fine enough hitter and has been around the fourth or fifth slot in the lineup for the Royals. He has some power (10 home runs) and speed (seven stolen bases) and is tougher to put down on strikes. The price is right for this matchup and Benintendi is just an above-average hitter in the middle tier of pricing on both sites.