Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/2/21
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
The week gets started with a small slate and an even smaller selection of pitchers but one that jumps off the page is rookie Tyor Megill. The Mets rookie has been brilliant through seven starts with a 2.04 ERA on three plus pitches in a fastball, slider, and changeup. That changeup is creating a 41% swing rate at balls outside the zone and a wild 22% swinging-strike rate(see video below). Tonight the 1st place Mets face the last-place Marlins who rank as a bottom-five offense in almost every category since the All-Star break. The price is creeping up there but all things considered including the limited options, I will have exposure to Megill in all formats.
Tylor Megill, Wicked Changeups. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/xQkcOAk9ba
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 29, 2021
You know it's a limited pitching slate when Andrew Heaney makes the article so make sure to load up on your antacids if watching the game. On a serious note, he is coming off two plus starts allowing the Rockies and Twins just four hits each while striking out 15 which was then rewarded by a trade to the Yankees who loaded up for bear on offense. His first start in pinstripes comes against the Orioles as a -240 favorite and at his price on both sites, is my favorite PTS/$ play on the mound.
Rizzo was a part of the Yankees trade deadline additions and has fit right in and already setting records. He reached base in each of his first eight at-bats and finished the series against the Marlins 5 for 9 with two walks, two home runs, three RBI, and five runs scored. He now gets a matchup against a struggling pitcher who has given up 4+ earned runs in six of his last nine starts. He isn't a must-play on FanDuel who has caught up to the new situation but on DraftKings, he is easily my top play at first base tonight.
Josh Bell FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - PHI (Ranger Suárez) Park - PHI
FD - 10.16 DK - 7.58
It was a huge hit to the Nats offense losing Trea Turner but there is still opportunity for us in DFS and it starts at first base. Overall, Bell is having a pretty average-at-best season hitting .251 with a 106 wRC+ but the good news is that he has been better as of late hitting .275 with a .375 wOBA and 133 wRC+ since the All-Star break. At the same price as Rizzo on DraftKings, Bell will be a GPP pivot only for me tonight but the price differential on FanDuel puts him in play in all formats tonight.
Jean Segura FD 3100 DK 4600
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 10.86 DK - 8.42
The middle infield is full of mid-tier value tonight which is a blessing on this smaller slate. I am back on Jean Segura who has been consistent at the top of the Phillies lineup hitting over .300 for the season and comes into tonight with hits in three straight and 12 of his last 13 games. He gets a matchup against Josiah Gray who was a key piece on the Scherzer deal and I doubt he goes deep in his first start with the Nats which could lead to multiple at-bats against the Nats terrible bullpen. Fire up Segura in all formats.
McNeil bounced around the lineup in the first half but seems to have solidified his role in the top 3 since the All-Star break and is thriving. He has hits in 12 of 13 games(.333 avg) with 11 runs batted in and a .412 wOBA and 163 wRC+. This game has a very low total(7) so I am not really interested in his $5K price tag on DraftKings for cash games but he is an excellent value on FanDuel at $3K and is also 3B eligible.
The overall numbers look pretty pedestrian but it's the opportunity and value price I am after tonight on this smaller slate. There is more good news as Crawford has been much better since taking over the leadoff spot back at the start of June hitting .282 with 33 runs scored and 17 RBI. The Mariners also get a decent matchup against Michael Wacha so I will have exposure to Crawford in all formats as my top PTS/$ shortstop.
Also Consider: Willy Adames(MIL) who has been a beast since joining the Brewers hitting .294 with a .395 wOBA ad 147 wRC+ and also gets a plus matchup
It took the Giants to the very last minute to strike a deal on deadline day but it was a big one as they added a middle-of-the-order beast in Kri Bryant. He had to wait a few days to play his first game due to covid but it was worth waiting for Giants fans as he hit a home run in his first game last night. He now gets a matchup vs. a struggling pitcher who has given up five earned runs in each of his last two games. If paying up, Bryant is a top play for me in all formats.
Seattle ranks lower tonight in terms of implied runs as they are a big dog to the Rays but that doesn't scare me away from the PTS/$ value. They face Michael Wacha who is the definition of average and that combined with a pretty thin position has Kyle Seager at the top of my list. He comes in playing very well with hits in seven straight and 11 of his last 12 games and home runs in four of his last six. The price is climbing but still low enough for him to be in play in all formats tonight.
Avisaíl García FD 3600 DK 3900
Opponent - PIT (Bryse Wilson) Park - PIT
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.57
There are a ton of outfielders with massive price tags and if we want exposure to them we are going to need some value. Good news. There are a few who really stand out and it starts with Avisail Garcia on DraftKings. He comes in red-hot with multi-hit games in four of his last five and is hitting .327 with a 130 wRC+ since the All-Star break. The Brewers are in a great spot tonight and Garcia hits in the middle of the lineup. Fire him up in all formats.
The Giants are also in a great spot here against a struggling Taylor Widener and making them easier to stack on DraftKings is the value price for their projected leadoff hitter. Wade has been slightly inconsistent as he takes on an everyday role in 2021 but has been great since the All Star break posting a .456 wOBA with a six home runs and 13 RBI. All things considered, if he is back in the leadoff spot I will have exposure in all formats, even at his FanDuel price.