Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/30/21
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We have two of the top three in the NL CY Young odds are the top tonight but I will be building around Robby Ray as my top pitcher. He is having a career year as he enters the night with the 7th best ERA(2.72) in baseball and adds an elite 31% K rate. He has been even better in the second half going 6+ innings in seven of eight starts, allowed more than five hits just once, and has tallied an average of 7.8 K’s per start. He now gets a bottom-five offense in the O’s and at these prices gives us a terrific combination of a high floor and ceiling. Fire up Ray in all formats.
With Burnes and Wheeler just over $10K on Draftkings tonight the option is most definitely there to pay up for both pitchers which will keep you under the $20K threshold. For me, I will be looking for a little more savings and will be rolling with German Marquez, at least in cash games. He has been much better at home(weird right?) but I am not at all concerned about those home/road splits tonight in a plus matchup vs. the Rangers who have scored a league-worst 3.4 runs per game with a 70 wRC+ and .262 wOBA in the second half.
With this being a smaller slate with a lack of options at the position, I didn't expect a sub $5K price on DraftKings for Muncy but here we are. He has been a beast all season with a .392 wOBA and 150 wRC+, both of which are top 10 amongst all hitters in baseball. He now gets a plus matchup against an average-at-best Drew Smyly and has absolutely crushed lefties to the tune of a .401 wOBA and .262 ISO. Even on FanDuel, Muncy is easily my top play at the position in all formats tonight.
If playing on DraftKings tonight it will be hard to ignore these bargain bin prices on the Yankees' first basemen. Both have been struggling in the very short term but Voit would be my top choice as he comes cheaper and has been the better hitter overall and comes in with a .290/.362/.581 slash line in the month of August. The other key here is that the Angels have yet to announce a starter so we have a lot to sit around and wait for but either way, both have a ton of power upside and can easily wreck the slate at these prices. Stay tuned.
Jean Segura FD 3200 DK 5100
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 10.44 DK - 8.09
After Altuve who is in his own tier of pricing at 2B, at least on DraftKings, I could make a case for several players as the top play. I slightly lean Segura for a couple of reasons starting with current form as he comes in red-hot with four straight multi-hit games. He is also the cheapest of the group on FanDuel and gets a plus matchup Josiah Gray who sits with an xFIP(4.61) almost a run higher than his ERA(3.75) and has already given up 12 home runs in just seven starts.
On DraftKings, you will have to use up your second base slot for Turner but where I like him most tonight is on FanDuel where he can be used in one of three different slots. Since coming over to the Dodgers at the deadline, Turner has been terrific posting a .329/.371/.500 slash line with 17 runs scored across 20 games. He brings an elite combination of power and speed(1 of 5 players with 20+ HR & SB) and has been much better against left-handed pitching with a league-leading .469 wOBA and 195 wRC+ in the split. Easily one of my top payups on this slate.
Adames has hit a wall over the last six games(3 for 21) but that has only driven the price back down into value territory making this one of my favorite buy-low's on the slate. He has been terrific for the Brewers since coming over in a trade in late may tallying a .291/.375/.536 slash line with 17 home runs and 50+ RBI and runs scored. All things considered, Adames is my top PTS/$ play at the position.
Alex Bregman FD 3600 DK 5000
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.37
The price is rising but there is still room to buy at a discount on Bregman. Since his return to the lineup, he has hits in three of four games with two multi-hit efforts and should also start slowly working his way back up near the top of the lineup. Whether or not that happens tonight, he does get a plus matchup against Chris Flexen who has posted reverse splits all season with a 1.49 WHIP, 4.72 xFIP and .348 wOBA against righties. Fire up Bregman in all formats.
For value in cash games, I will continue to turn to the top of the Angels lineup who give us exposure to Ohtani and Walsh without having to pay top dollar. Gosselin has been a product of opportunity due to injuries and has been hitting near the top of the lineup most of the second half and on top of that comes in hot with hits in nine of his last 11 games. He doesn't provide a ton of upside but the PTS/$ floor is hard to ignore in cash games.
I am not a huge fan of the park downgrade for the Yankees but then again, these sluggers wouldn't be scared of the old Polo Grounds. What stands out more than their overall upside is the price tonight and it starts with Stanton who is stuck in the $4K range on DraftKings despite posting an elite .319/.404/.626 slash line in August. We don't get the same discount with Judge but we have another Yankees bat that has been en fuego with a .333/.412/.627 slash line in August. As crazy as it sounds, I still feel that price is a buy-low for Judge considering as he is the 8th and 13th most expensive bat on FanDuel and DraftKings respectively.
Odúbel Herrera FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 10.46 DK - 8.01
We are always in need of a couple of value plays in the outfield and tonight it starts with Herrera. What he lacks in overall upside he makes up for with opportunity should he be back in the leadoff spot where he is projected to be tonight. He also comes in rending in the right direction as August has been, by far, his best month hitting .325 with six home runs. I like this spot for the Phillies tonight and Herrera/Segura is one of my top two-man stacks in cash games.